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Chasing reliable financial freedom through dividend growth investing
Economic Update - Strong Jobs
Stocks opened lower but have pared most of the losses as investors digest the latest jobs report and continued corporate earnings. The jobs report was much stronger than anticipated, showing the labor market is proving resilient despite the Fed rate increases. All 3 major averages are higher on the week.

For economic data today, nonfarm payrolls jumped 517,000, well above expectations of 187,000. It was the biggest increase since July. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, below estimates of 3.6% and the lowest level since 1969. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% during the month and 4.4% over the past year, below estimates of 4.9%.

The ISM Services Index rose out of contraction territory to a reading of 55.2 in January. The increase was bigger than expected and was the biggest monthly increase since June 2020. The final print of the January S&P Global Services PMI was revised higher to a reading of 46.8.

Treasury yields are higher, with the 2-year T yield up 18.6 basis points to 4.28%, the 5-year T yield up 17.9 basis points to 3.66%, and the 10-year T yield up 14.7 basis points to 3.54%. Advance rates are higher throughout much of the curve.
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Economic Update
Stocks are moved higher Thursday as investors continue to digest corporate earnings and the FOMC rate decision from yesterday. The Fed elected to raise rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not indicate that the Fed was ready to pause rate hikes, but did acknowledge that inflation was slowing.

For economic data today, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 9-month low of 183,000. Claims were at 186,000 last week and were expected to jump to 195,000. Continuing claims edged lowered to 1.66 million.

The initial U.S. productivity estimate rose by 3.0% during Q4 quarter. Productivity had been estimated to increase by 2.4%. Productivity was down 1.3% in 2022 overall. Unit labor costs rose 1.1% during the quarter and jumped 5.7% during 2022.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 2-year T yield down 2.0 basis points to 4.09%, the 5-year T yield down 1.9 basis points to 3.48%, and the 10-year T yield down 1.6 basis points to 3.38%. Shorter-term advance rates are mostly higher, while longer-term rates are lower today.
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Beyond Meat $BYND Breakout
$BYND is breaking out above the long term down trend today!! A couple of key levels of control on approach. Playing with a call on this stock on my “dumb ideas” account 😈 got a 2/10 22C at 0.97
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Koyfin - New Stuff 😍
Super hyped about Koyfin’s earning calendar! And I’m loving the new mobile app!

Looks like I’ll need to update my review for them real soon!
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Nice! I really want them to add a news feed that only includes news for the companies I follow.
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Economic Update
Stocks are lower today as we wait for the FOMC rate decision later. The Fed is expected to announce a 25 bps increase, though traders are far more interested in the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Domestic stocks had a strong January, with the S&P 500 posting its best January since 2019 and the Nasdaq its best January in 22 years.

For economic data, the ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls grew by 106k in Jan, below the 190k expected. However, the chief economist for ADP said the slowdown was likely related to weather and job growth is not as weak as the report indicates. December saw an upward revision to 253k.

The ISM Manufacturing Index fell more than expected to 47.4 in Jan, the 3rd straight month the index contracted. The Dec reading was 48.4. New orders and production contracted, prices increased, and employment edged lower to 50.6, nearing contraction territory. The final print of the January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.9, just above the initial reading of 46.8.

Wrapping up data, the Dec JOLTS report showed job openings jumped to 11.0 million, versus expectations of declining to 10.3 million. Quits were flat and layoffs edged higher. Lastly, construction spending fell 0.4% in Dec, versus expectations of remaining flat for the month.

Treasury yields are flatter, with the 2-year T yield up 0.9 basis points to 4.22%, the 5-year T yield down 1.9 basis points to 3.62%, and the 10-year T yield down 2.0 basis points to 3.51%. Shorter-term advance rates are higher, while longer-term rates are lower today.
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Economic Update - HPI & CCI
Stocks are higher today as we await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. The S&P 500 is headed for its best January since 2019. Both the S&P 500 and DJIA are headed for a 3rd green month in the last 4 months.

For economic data today, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) fell 0.6% in Nov and was up 7.7% YoY, down from 9.2% last month. The closely watched 20-city HPI fell 0.7% for the month and was up 6.8% YoY, down from 8.6%. The FHFA HPI fell 0.1% in Nov and prices were up 8.2% YoY.

The Employment Cost Index was up 1.0% in Q4, just below expectations of 1.1% and down from 1.2% in Q3. It was the lowest gain in a year. The Fed considers the index an important gauge of inflation.

The Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly fell to 107.1 in Jan. The index was expected to post a small increase to 109.5. The Present Situation Index rose to 150.0, while the Expectations Index fell to 77.8. An Expectations Index reading below 80 generally indicates a recession is coming within the next year.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 2-year T yield down 3.9 basis points to 4.22%, the 5-year T yield down 3.5 basis points to 3.65%, and the 10-year T yield down 1.1 basis points to 3.54%. Shorter-term advance rates are mostly higher, while longer-term rates are lower today.
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Comcast ($CMCSA) Q4 2022 Earnings - Mixed Earnings but a Light Is At the End of the Tunnel
On Thursday, 1/26/2023, Comcast ($CMCSA) reported fourth quarter earnings that beat most expectations despite a lack of strength in subscriber growth and losses from Peacock (their streaming service).

Earnings per share came in at $0.82 for the quarter, beating expectations of $0.77 by 6.4%. Revenues came in at $30.6B beating expectations of $30.4B and a previous quarter of $29.8B. Good news so far!
Unfortunately, Adjusted EBITDA fell by 15% to $8B from $9.5B from the prior quarter. This was mostly due to higher severance expenses as hinted at by CFO Mike Cavanagh in the third quarter call. He said, “As we enter the fourth quarter and look to our year ahead, we remain focused on driving long-term growth during an increasingly challenged economic environment… We expect we will be taking severance and other cost reduction-related charges in the fourth quarter in anticipation of expense reduction actions that will provide benefits in 2023 and beyond.”

Cable Communications

Comcast report 26,000 lost broadband customers for the quarter, attributing impact to Hurricane Ian which hit Florida and South Carolina in September. The hurricane caused severe damage and losses to the homes of subscribers. When looking at total customer relationships, the firm estimates the total number decreased by 36,000 and broadband increased by 4,000 when excluding the effects of the hurricane.

Though subscribers are growing, the pace has slowed compared to quarters prior to Covid. Competition from telecom and wireless providers are growing, and a housing slowdown in the US contributes to a lack of new customers as the shift to new homes. Total customer relationships of 34.3M increased slightly form 34.2M last year.

Comcast’s wireless segment, Xfinity, added 365,000 customers in the quarter, brining the total subscriber base to over 5.3M. Wireless customer growth has been consistent since jumping into the business in recent years. This was offset by a loss of 440,000 cable video subscribers as customers continue to cut traditional TV bundles in favor of streaming.

NBCUniversal is the business segment that contains the media (cable, streaming, and related advertising figures), studios (movie studios such as Universal Pictures, Dreamworks, and Focus Features) , and theme parks (5 Universal Parks and Resorts) businesses.

Revenues for Universal were up about 3% from the prior quarter to $9.8B. Revenues was boosted by the 2022 FIFA World Cup which aired on Peacock and their Spanish-language network Telemundo.

Though overall results are good, Peacock has continued to weigh on the business. Adjusted earnings fell by nearly 50% to $817M due to Peacock losses and severance expenses. $978M of that is attributed to Peacock losses compared to a loss of $614M last quarter.

This quarter, Peacock added 5M new paying Peacock customers to the subscriber base, brining the total number to 20 million. This increase could be attributed to the World Cup, football season, and English Premiere League. The company remains committed to earning a return on their Peacock investment, though next year doesn’t look like the year for it. Overall, Peacock’s losses for the year of $2.5B were in line with the company’s earlier outlook. Next year, Michael Cavanagh says they expect losses to be near $3B.

Theme parks remained a bright spot for the segment this quarter with $2.1B in revenue, right behind the studios revenue of $2.7B. Studios revenues were actually down compared to last quarter, however the segment ended the year strong with a #2 rank in the world wide box office for year thanks to movies like Jurassic World: Dominion and Puss In Boots: The Last Wish.

Lastly, Sky, the segment that holds one of Europe’s leading media and entertainment companies, reported 129,000 net customer additions. This was reflected in a revenue growth of $163M compared to last quarter. For the year, Sky revenues decreased 11.5% to $17.9B. When excluding the impact of currency, revenue only decreased $1.2%, highlighting the segment’s sensitivity to exchange rates.

Final Thoughts
These 4th quarter results won’t change any negative sentiment around the company, but it’s a step in the right direction. Broadband customer growth is still anemic. I believe the lack of growth in the broadband service is mostly an economic one. Comcast is well positioned to combat competition and maintain pricing power. Broadband business lost customers this quarter for the first time. Average revenue per customer, however, grew 3.5% year over year. The cable segments’s EBITDA margin was flat versus last year, but would have hit a record 45% if the higher severance costs hadn’t hit.

Peacock showed better growth this quarter with 5 million net adds, but still reported a loss, crushing the margins of the Universal segment. Universal faces more challenges, but a rebound in theme parks and the growth in Peacock is a good step in the right direction.

Free cash flows took a hit for the year, dropping to $12.6B from $17.1B. Expenditures were heavily tied to a rebound in content and higher cash taxes. Both items should show less of an impact for 2023. The company’s balance sheet is strong and has allowed the company to raise its dividend by 7.4% to $1.16 for 2023, their 15th consecutive increase. Approximately $17.7B was returned to shareholders this year through $4.7B in dividends and $13B in share buybacks.

Overall, $CMCSA still looks undervalued to me. It has the stability of a telecom stock with it’s focus of broadband, has potential growth aspects of similar streaming companies with Peacock, an impressive ability to bring in revenues at the box office, and a knack for stretching profits out of popular franchises with a growing theme park business. All of these items make them a diversified company that is hard to compete with and an attractive opportunity for long-term investors.

All information provided is available on Comcast's Earnings page with access to the earnings releases, presentations, and transcripts. Both the Q3 and Q4 2022 earnings materials were used in this article.
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Dividend Portfolio Update
Been a while since I did a portfolio update on Commonstock! So I'm going to do a quick breakdown of moves made this week.

This was a quite slow week for my portfolio. Except for the dip on Tuesday, the market rallied higher for most of the week. I’d much rather buy in more red weeks, so I did not spend too much time making buys. I executed our weekly ETF buys, reinvested all dividends, and did one opportunistic buy into $MSFT after their earnings.

Additionally, I sold a $T covered call going into the earnings, but second guessed it and closed it before the report. Boy am I glad I did! $T had a great earnings report and ran high enough to bring my position in the green for the first time since I began buying!

Below is a breakdown of the trades I made this week:

January 23rd, 2023
  • AT&T ($T) – sold $20.5 covered call 1/27 for $7 premium
January 24th, 2023
  • AT&T ($T) – bought to close $20.5 covered call at $8
January 25th, 2023
  • ETRACS 2x Monthly Pay Leveraged ATN – dividend reinvested
  • Microsoft ($MSFT) – added 0.25 shares at $231.40
January 27th, 2023
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) – added $10 at $406.47 per share (weekly buy)
  • Global X S&P 500 Covered Call & Growth ETF ($XYLG) – added $10 at $26.42 per share (weekly buy)
  • Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF ($SCHD) – added $10 at $76.38 per share (weekly buy)

My full portfolio is below and a tracker of all dividends made so far! PADI is currently at $509 giving me a yield of 3.72%

You can read my full portfolio update available on my website here: https://dividollars.com/2023/01/27/dividend-portfolio-1-27-2023-weekly-update/
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Economic Update
Stocks dropped sharply Wednesday morning as investors digest the latest batch of corporate earnings. Some high-profile companies have missed expectations, causing concerns about the remainder of the season. The DJIA is coming off a 3-day winning streak & all 3 major averages are slightly higher/flat on the week.

For economic data today, MBA mortgage applications increased 7% last week. The refinance index increased 15% & the purchase index was up 3%. The report also showed that the average interest rate of a conforming 30-year mortgage fell 3 bps to 6.2%, the 3rd straight weekly decline.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 2-year T yield down 2.4 basis points to 4.13%, the 5-year T yield down 3.3 basis points to 3.55%, and the 10-year T yield down 2.5 basis points to 3.44%. Advances rates are lower throughout most of the curve today.
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The Start of My Covered Call Empire
I recently reached a position of 100 shares in AT&T ($T). 100 shares means that I can sell covered calls to collect the option premium. Meaning my position now has two streams of income for me; dividends and premium!

I sold a call with $20 strike price and maturity of 1/20/2023 for a $3. That option expired worthless today, netting me a 100% gain!

$3 is hardly anything. However, if I can manage to do this regularly and improve on when I sell and at what strikes, I could bump up that income per written call and use that cash to grow my portfolio faster.

$T is my first 100 share position, but there will be many more coming! Next ones I want are $INTC, $CMCSA, and $ALLY.
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