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The markets will make your brain hurt. But it hurts so good.
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Gary's avatar
Tough day for PubMatic fans -32%
I've seen fans of PubMatic on Commonstock. Curious how they're feeling today.

Pubmatic is a programmatic advertising company. They projected weaker revenue in the short-term future, amplifying concerns about economic vulnerability and delaying an anticipated recovery.

PubMatic’s second-quarter financial results reflected tough macroeconomic conditions hitting the digital ad industry, as revenue was up just 0.5% year over year.

PubMatic squeeked out an adjusted profit of $1.3 million, but that was down -90% from year-ago levels, due largely to losses stemming from one of its top 10 ad buyers having filed for bankruptcy protection.

Connected television remained a driver of business growth, however, with CTV revenue climbing 30% year over year.

PubMatic projected third-quarter results that suggested a further slowdown, including revenue guidance for between $58 million and $61 million. That prompted downgrades from multiple stock analysts.

Co-founder/CEO Rajeev Goel remains confident in PubMatic’s underlying business and its prospects to boost its addressable market through new products.

Neither shareholders nor stock analysts were pleased with PubMatic's forward guidance, as both Macquarie and Oppenheimer cut their ratings on the stock from outperform to their equivalent of neutral.

In particular, the bankruptcy of a demand-side ad buyer highlighted the counterparty risk that PubMatic's business model carries. That should become less of a factor when the ad market rebounds, but as long as macroeconomic conditions remain difficult, that risk will remain heightened.

PubMatic did have more positive things to say about its long-term prospects. The recent release of its Activate feature to directly insert order transactions programmatically on PubMatic's platform will expand its total addressable market by almost $65 billion, and the more recent Convert unified commerce media solution could add another $10 billion.

More broadly, PubMatic sees industrywide consolidation helping its position in the field. The company processed 48.8 trillion ad impressions, up 35% from the year-ago quarter, and PubMatic had 13% more active publishers on its platform than it did 12 months ago.

The outstanding question, though, is whether PubMatic's expansion efforts will pay off quickly enough to satisfy increasingly impatient investors. At this point, shareholders seem skeptical, and PubMatic will probably have to demonstrate its turnaround through more favorable financial results in future quarters in order to convince them of the company's full potential.
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Gary's avatar
Follower Assets Unlocked 🎉
Fun to get the pop up modal letting me know I unlocked follower assets. It's been a pleasure exploring the markets with you all 😎
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@charityAugust 8
The pop up I got when I hit 30 followers:
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Gary's avatar
Icahn Enterprises downward spiral collapse risk is back
$IEP is down 22% today. Dropping share price is a big problem for Carl Icahn. The more the share price drops, the more of his personal assets he has to sell to put up as collateral. Big drops like this are NOT fun for Icahn.

He has blamed Hindenburg, but if they didn't have some legitimate points, then nothing would have happened. But some investors have realized $IEP 's dividend is too high and decided to sell.
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Gary's avatar
Did you know Traeger is a public company?
  • They make wood pellet fueled barbecues
  • Founded in 2017, went public in 2021
  • Down -72% since they went public
  • But up +50% today!
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Gary's avatar
Mercado Libre +11% today $MELI
Sales increased by 32% year-over-year, with revenue hitting $3.42 billion. This beat analysts’ expectations by $150 million.

Congrats to @toasty_trading for the well-timed buy:
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Gary's avatar
U.S. GDP grew at 2.4% in Q2, above expectations of 1.8%
Recession worries delayed!
GDP (QoQ annualized): 2.4%, vs. 1.8% expected, from 2.0% in the prior period.

GDP price index: 2.2%, vs. 3.0%, from 4.1%. - Reuters, BEA

The U.S. economy continues to surprise to the upside, having quickly recovered from Covid and now avoiding a recession, even with higher rates. Damn.

In Q2, GDP growth was led by business investment and consumer spending in services.
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NIce charts! Also good to see the uptick
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Gary's avatar
Intel up +6% as it returns to profitability after two quarters of losses
  • Earnings per share: $0.13, adjusted
  • Revenue: $12.9 billion
  • Net income of $1.5 billion, or earnings of $0.35 per share, (vs. a net loss of $454 million, or a loss of 11 cents per share in the same quarter last year)
  • Revenue fell to $12.9 billion from $15.3 billion a year ago, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of declining sales for the company.

Intel expects earnings of $0.20 per share for the third quarter, adjusted, on revenue of $13.4 billion (versus analyst expectations of 16 cents per share on $13.23 billion in sales.)

  • Intel management has told investors that the firm’s turnaround will take time
  • $INTC is aiming to match $TSM's chip manufacturing prowess by 2026 (which would enable it to bid to make the most advanced mobile processors for other companies.)

  • Laptop and desktop processor shipments fell 12% annually to $6.8 billion
  • The overall PC market has been slumping for over a year
  • Data Center and AI, declined 15% to $4.0 billion in sales
  • In the first quarter, Intel posted its largest loss ever as the PC and server markets slumped and demand declined for Intel’s central processors.

Intel’s results on Thursday beat the forecast that management gave for the second quarter at the time. Results were stronger than expected partly because Intel slashed $3 billion in costs this year.
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Intel reports largest quarterly loss in company history
The loss per share was slightly better than soft Wall Street expectations.

Gary's avatar
Netflix average revenue per membership is the weak spot
Also weird: the cheaper, ad-supported plan and crackdown on password sharing were supposed to drive growth for the streaming giant. There was few details on both of those in the earnings call.

Revenue per membership was weak because $NFLX didn't increase prices. The least expensive, no-ads plan got removed this week.

Advertising is not expected to be a big revenue contributor this year.
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No worries here. Management is competent. Wall street wanted to see more in the short term. The business will continue to perform.
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