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Monday Madness - 5/9/22
Overall, 9 stock positions increased/added.

Additional investments into my Stash portfolio (4).

$BMBL - $35.66 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$CMPS - $73.00 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$SFIX - $12.20 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$YUM - $135.95 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.

None of the above, with the exception of $YUM, are core positions, I'm banking on the differential in the current share price vs the anticipated upside. Willing to hold, but will take profit when it presents itself.

Additional investments into my M1 Finance "Fat Cat Investing" portfolio (5)


Anyone familiar with M1 Finance knows how the 'pies' work, but for those that don't, once the pie is setup and weighted you have very little control, aside from adjusting percentages, in controlling individual buys. Since I added $CUBE to the "Fat Cat Investing" portfolio today, I deposited an off-schedule deposit to force a 'buy' resulting in the purchases above, as dictated by my weighting. The addition of $CUBE brings this portfolio up to 49 holdings.

The 'Fat Cat Investing' portfolio was down 3.05% overall today and is a part of my ongoing "Real Estate Rumble".

These are now "core" positions in this IRA, so unless there is a fundamental change in one of the REITS - all 49 are long term holds.
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The Earnings Beat Goes On: Daily Contrarian, Feb. 9
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are green for a change, continuing the rally from yesterday. The Nasdaq is leading things, up 0.9% as of 0645. The S&P 500 is up 0.7% with Dow Industrials 0.5% to the good. The Russell 2000 which tracks small caps is up 0.4%.

Bonds are holding steady, with the 2-year yield at 1.32% and the 10-year at 1.92%.

Commodities aren’t doing much either. WTI crude is down about 0.7% to trade around $89/barrel. Gold is unchanged at 1,827/oz. Natural gas is continuing to drop though, down 2% to get closer to the $4 level (currently $4.17).

Cryptos are flat. Bitcoin is down about 1% to trade around $43,500.

Earnings
In the after market we had good news from Chipotle ($CMG), which has rallied, and bad from LYFT ($LYFT), whose shares have been punished.

CVS Health ($CVS) just reported, beating earnings and revenue estimates. The stock is up 1% in the pre-market.

CME Group ($CME), Fox Corp ($FOXA), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), Yum Brands ($YUM) also report before the open at 0930.

The after market should be interesting again. Uber ($UBER) is expected to report at 1600, followed by Sonos ($SONO), Vimeo ($VMEO), and Disney ($DIS). We’ll also get Twilio ($TWLO), Mattel ($MAT), Zynga ($ZNGA), and MGM Resorts ($MGM) after the close.

The Bottom Line
A lot of volatility has left the market this week. Doesn’t mean it won’t return of course, but things are noticeably calmer. Futures being bright green was a cause for concern during the high vol days of last week and the week before, but it’s difficult to see where the catalyst for ‘risk-off’ could come from. Earnings don’t get interesting until after the close.

Yesterday's bottom line told you it was looking like a blah day but to keep an eye out because those days often turn out to be the most interesting. We ended up getting a rally in risk assets, with the Dow, Nasdaq and Russell all adding north of 1%. This may be a good indication the bull market is alive and well (which it is statistically, anyway) as stocks tend to rally for no good reason during bull markets.
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 7th - 11th)
Hey guys!

A key week is ahead of us! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $APPS - One of my largest holdings. I'd like an update on the progress of single-tap and the tests they were running with Meta $FB. I'm also interested in seeing how their device footprint is expanding after their latest deals.
  • $DIS - They've invested heavily on Marvel and Star Wars series for Disney+, so let's see if this translates to lower churn and higher growth.
  • $NET - Really interesting stock but the valuation seems too high. Let's see if there's a good opportunity to enter post-earnings.

Good luck!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Labor Shortage A Major Concern For Some Companies
Over the past few weeks, we've seen several companies talk about their struggles with the US labor shortage. Labor-intensive companies like restaurants and hotels are experiencing significant headwinds. Higher labor costs, missed sales due to reduced operating hours, and productivity declines due to the learnings curves of new hires are some of the issues affecting these companies.

The latest Fincredible MacroTalk highlights the most relevant quotes from company earnings calls on this topic. Here's the one's I found most relevant:


In current conditions, the minimum wage is not getting prospective employees in the door. Companies are being forced to raise their wages significantly to compete in this labor market. And the situation is likely to be persistent:


The labor shortage has severe implications for companies. Higher labor costs due to higher wages and increased spending on training and hiring processes, as well as reduced operating hours and missed sales:


Labor is an essential part of the supply chain, and as long as these issues persist, the supply chain woes won't be fixed.

If you'd like to review the whole post, here's the link: Fincredible MacroTalk: Labor Shortages . Quotes from $AMZN $CMG $CPT $BJ $BJRI $SIX $KMB $PCH $WM $QSR $BYD $TXRH $KMPR $YUM $HUBG $MMSI $JBT $HSY
I'd be curious to know how much of the labor shortage is due to people opening their own businesses and getting out of the corporate structure entirely during the height of the pandemic? 🤔
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Big Week Ahead! (Oct 25-29 Earnings Calendar)
Next week will probably be the most interesting week for the stock market this quarter. The largest companies in the world are all reporting and we'll get a lot of very valuable insights.

Here's what I'm interested in:
  • More context on the slowdown in ad spending from $FB $GOOG and $TWTR. Let's see if these companies are experiencing similar issues to the ones $SNAP mentioned yesterday.
  • Comments on the global supply chain issues from $KMB $MMM $GLW $LOGI and others.
  • A general update from $AMD $TDOC $SHOP and$AMZN.
  • Perspectives on the energy market from $XOM $CVX

Comment below what earnings call you're looking forward to!

Remember you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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