A Weekly Update on Special Situations
Dexcom $DXCM denied previous reporting that it was in active takeover talks with Insulet $PODD.

Kohl’s $KSS reportedly received bids from Sycamore Partners and Franchise Group $FRG. Reports that negotiations could drag on for weeks amid challenging macro backdrop. [Kohl's now in exclusive discussions with Franchise Group).

Afya $AFYA 40% shareholder Bertelsmann SE disclosed in 13D that it plans to purchase $129mm additional shares.

Overstock $OSTK investor Simcoe Capital disclosed a 6% stake in 13D filing.

Tabula Rasa HealthCare $TRHC investor Indaba Capital disclosed a 20% stake and intention to engage with management in 13D filing.

WisdomTree $WETF entered into a cooperation agreement with Lion Point and ETFS Capital.

XPO Logistics $XPO filed a Form 10 registration statement for the planned spin-off of its brokered transportation platform.

Frontier $ULCC added reverse termination fee to Spirit Airways $SAVE deal.

Qualcomm $QCOM reportedly interested in acquiring a stake in Softbank’s Arm.
The industrial real estate industry is looking to enter a downcycle
According to Wired, $AMZN is looking to cut back on warehouse space as its projections of high online retail sales didn't materialize.

Many of the leases that Amazon made during the pandemic with warehouse providers are now looking to be cut. The recent retail sales report shows that consumers are paying more for items; not buying more items. Even if consumers might still be sitting on a higher pile of savings, inflation is eroding the real value of people's savings.

E-commerce fueled the surge in demand for warehouse space. As the industry endures a slowdown, demand for warehouse space will decline. Many of the pre-leases that e-commerce companies have signed with developers are looking to get cut in the process. Developers will continue to finish the construction of warehouses, only to find that their project will finish at a time when there's a huge glut in the supply of warehouses.

$PLD $STAG and other warehouse stocks will see their pricing power erode. As for the cold storage warehouse providers like $COLD, I do see them handling the supply glut better because demand for cold storage is still high.

Using Dow Theory, the declining demand for warehouse space correspond to a freight recession. Companies are cutting back on transportation services because they are ordering less inventory. $FDX $UPS $JBHT $XPO are other trucking and parcel delivery companies are going to be impacted negatively by the decline in e-commerce. UPS fell after their earnings because of that reason.

For now, I plan on holding $STAG because I enjoy the monthly dividends I receive from it. I'll be monitoring their earnings and reading the earnings transcripts to see how conditions in the warehouse REIT space are holding up.
Like everything tied to retail and consumer demand, bad short term outlook for sure. I’m holding a small amount of $STAG and $PLD. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift lower but I like them long term so I don’t see the point in selling to buy back a little lower. I think demand will come back before it gets really painful. I do see some positives here too. Amazon will stop building their own warehouses now and maybe even sell some as leasing will provide more flexibility in dealing with inventory cycles. The second positive is that as other e-comm businesses scale they will fill in the spaces left by Amazon. Obviously this is dependent on demand coming back but if you think e-comm is still a growing market, warehouses will be integral to that long term, and this is just a temporary bump in the road. Now though the retail and e-comm companies will be more hesitant to try to build their own warehouses as it’s added risk to manage during down cycles. The warehouse as a real estate sector is now a fortified sector for real estate companies.
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Transports Strategy
When I first saw the shortage of goods in stores I held $UPS for hopes on earnings upside. It was an obvious strategy that all logistical sectors would benefit. Major transportation companies are extremely expensive but $XPO is an amazing company who mostly serves smaller retail but competes with massive companies. I think as the US struggles to distribute goods, this company is undervalued and has not performed like its counterparts. My concern is their level of debt which can strangle their growth. I hold this stock for defensive purposes. Look at their ability to hold this week. When the bull market returns to growth I will sell and buy into riskier positions
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 7th - 11th)
Hey guys!

A key week is ahead of us! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $APPS - One of my largest holdings. I'd like an update on the progress of single-tap and the tests they were running with Meta $FB. I'm also interested in seeing how their device footprint is expanding after their latest deals.
  • $DIS - They've invested heavily on Marvel and Star Wars series for Disney+, so let's see if this translates to lower churn and higher growth.
  • $NET - Really interesting stock but the valuation seems too high. Let's see if there's a good opportunity to enter post-earnings.

Good luck!

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Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (Nov 1-5)
Hey guys! Here's next week's earnings calendar! Several very interesting companies set to report earnings. Here's the one's I'm most excited about and why:

  • $APPS: any sign of iOS ad dollars shifting to android (Digital Turbine's revenues are mostly from android).
  • $Z: an update on the real estate market and iBuying
  • $LYFT and $UBER: is mobility in the US back to pre-pandemic levels?
  • $COIN metrics on the NFT market.
  • $PENN and $DKNG update on the mobile sports betting market.
  • $ATVI number of Call of Duty Warzone players. The last reported number was 100MM.
  • $CRSR: comments on the supply chain issues they're experiencing.
  • $MELI: update on the Brazilian e-commerce market. Relevant for $SE's expansion.
Comment below which earnings report you are looking forward to the most!
Friendly reminder: you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.





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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$272.6m follower assets
Earnings this week
Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, February 8th
$SFTBY Softbank
$TTWO Take Two
$HAS Hasbro
$CHGG Chegg

Tuesday, February 9th
$CSCO Cisco
$FISV Fiserv
$TWTR Twitter
$AKAM Akamai
$LYFT Lyft
$CGC Canopy Growth Corp
$AYX Alteryx

Wednesday, February 10th
$KO Coca-Cola
$TM Toyota Motor
$UBER Uber
$GM General Motor
$EQIX Equinix
$ZG Zillow Group
$EFX Equifax
$MGM MGM Resorts
$ZYNGA Zynga
$XPO XPO Logistics
$UA Under Armour
$SONO Sonos

Thursday, February 11th
$DIS Disney
$PEP PepsiCo
$KHC Kraft Heinz
$NET Cloudflare
$TSN Tyson Foods
$VRSN VeriSign
$EXPE Expedia
$K Kellogg
$HUBS HubSpot
$GDDY GoDaddy
$TAP Coors Brewing
$MHK Mohawk Industries
$DDOG Datadog

Friday, February 12th
$D Dominion Energy

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo finance
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