Paul Cerro's avatar
$27.4m follower assets
How D2C disruptors are faring—and how they stack up against established brands
Direct-to-consumer (D2C) ecommerce growth has slowed since 2020, but the leading digitally native brands remain popular. In December 2021, the Peloton $PTON website raked in 6.7 million visits worldwide, far more than the sites of Warby Parker $WRBY, Casper $CSPR, and other top digital natives in the D2C space.

Beyond the chart: Peloton’s revenues plunged in its most recent quarter after months of decelerating growth. But these growing pains are expected as the brand comes down from its 2020 highs, according to Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. As Peloton and its digital-first peers seek out new growth avenues, it is mass-market brands that will drive the majority of US D2C ecommerce sales this year—75.5% of the $155.69 billion in sales, per our estimates. These established brands are adopting D2C strategies to shorten the path to purchase while sidestepping the issues of scale that hamper many disruptor brands.
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$27.4m follower assets
Let’s get a better look at Warby Parker $WRBY
1%: Warby Parker’s $WRBY market share of the $160 billion eyewear market, per CFO Steve Miller.
$153.2 million: Warby Parker’s net revenues for Q1 2022, up 10.3% YoY. Warby Parker's 2021 revenues totaled $540.8 million, up 37.4% YoY.

2.23 million: The number of Warby Parker’s active customers in Q1 2022, up 18% YoY. The average revenue per customer increased 11.2% to $249.

$15 million: Warby Parker’s estimated sales loss due to omicron, which “coincided with peak demand in the optical industry as customers [sought] to utilize flexible spending dollars ahead of Dec. 31 expirations,” the company said.

$155.69 billion: Our direct-to-consumer ecommerce sales forecast for 2022. We predict Warby Parker’s ecommerce sales will total $260 million this year.
One of the very rare items that a commercial actually sold me on. If I wore glasses I’d love the options they present in the commercials. Going to look at their numbers now😉
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Stanley's avatar
$12.5m follower assets
A lot going on for a Friday... 54 positions increased/started
Three things going on with my portfolios today.

1) additional stock investments into my Stash portfolio

2) setup of a special REIT portfolio on M1 Finance to benchmark the various Real Estate apps I am evaluating.

3) updated Real Estate Rumble to incorporate the Fat Cat Investing REIT Pie from M1 Finance

1) - Stash Investments (6)

$AEO - $29.09 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$CHWY - $59.04 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$COIN - $270.77 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$HD - $387.95 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$NFLX - $345.57 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$WRBY - $37.67 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.

2) - M1 Investments (48)

I added a "benchmark" made of 48 REITs pulled from the "Seeking Alpha iREIT Durable Income Portfolio to my Real Estate Rumble Google Doc. Rather than setup a whole new account for this, I added an additional "pie" to one of my M1 portfolios...

I'm not going to list all 48 holdings here but you can see them here - Fat Cat Investing Pie: https://m1.finance/z6spRMse6EOm

3) - Real Estate Rumble

Newly revised "Real Estate Rumble" now tracking Concreit, Landa, Lofty, Fundrise, Groundfloor + Fat Cat Investing M1 REIT pie.

Real Estate Rumble Google Doc - https://bit.ly/3J4U57h

Join me at Fat Cats of Real Estate on Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/groups/447646870455159
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April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:


Visit highsandlows.substack.com
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Beaten-down 2021 IPOs
I love avoiding new initial public offerings for their first couple of earnings reports as a publicly-traded company -- but even more so, I love revisiting them after this 6-12 months.

Life as a newly public company is rough as expectations from analysts are wonky, and management is adjusting to a new lifestyle of increased scrutiny.

With this in mind, here's a list of 2021 IPOs I'm watching that have traded down since going public.

$RSKD Riskified -74% | $PATH UiPath -67% | $COOK Traeger -66% | $BIRD Allbirds -65% | $MQ Marqueta -64% | $CPNG Coupang -62% | $OLO Olo -56% | $COIN Coinbase -53% | $APP Applovin -51% | $EXFY Expensify -44% | $USER UserTesting -42% | $BMBL Bumble -42% | $WRBY Warby Parker -40% | $AFRM Affirm -39% | $WEBR Weber -37% | $NU Nu -31%| $RBLX Roblox -30% | $SEMR SEMrush -27% | $FIGS FIGS -27% | $MNDY Monday -13% | $DOCN DigitalOcean -11% | $CFLT Confluent -8% | $GLBE Global-e Online -6% |

Curious to hear what you all may like the most from these?

Out of this list, four are part of my Core 34 group of holdings that I aim to add to the most here in 2022.

Have a good weekend, friendly humans.
With of the four from my core 34 do you like the most?
42%Coupang
31%Roblox
15%DigitalOcean
10%Global-e Online
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/02/22
Paul Cerro's avatar
$27.4m follower assets
SBC is a scam to adj. EBITDA and you're getting diluted
Stock-based compensation (SBC_ has gotten out of control with some companies that utilize the line item top boost adj. EBITDA for profitability but can also dilute you.

Prime example is $TWTR. Market Cap >1.5x since IPO while price only up ~2% in the same time

The link below shows this weeks "Chart of the Week" for the following names


The numbers are quite shocking. If you're interested in receiving content like this, hit the subscribe button (it's free!).

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Paul Cerro's avatar
$27.4m follower assets
CGC Q1'22 Quarterly Letter - Can you relate?
Cedar Grove Capital released its Q1'22 letter last week and wanted to share it with you all here.

While the quarter was a challenging one, we ended the quarter with 18% in cash and are strategically positioned to continue the rest of the year deploying dry powder in opportunistic areas.

Our holdings are included below - would love anyone's thoughts on them if they have any to share.

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