While everyone else is experiencing inflation, $WING has deflation
While many items are hitting new all-time highs, the price of bone-in chicken wings seems to have come down a lot since last year.

Conor Mac's avatar
$316.8m follower assets
Looking for Wingstop Materials: WING
Hey Commonstock, I am looking for some great primer research materials on Wingstop $WING outside of SEC filings.

Suggestions, and links, are much appreciated, thank you!
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I'm an actual frequent customer of WIngStop. Visiting their shop, try their food, talk to their customers. Looking on the map of the various WingStop locations.

If you'd like to hear my views as a customer, let me know!
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 14th - 18th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Three of my holdings report next week.

  • $ABNB - The stock has held up pretty well during the market sell-off. The valuation is still high, but with re-openings the company could see a big boost this year.
  • $TTD - They've said Apple IDFA is a non-issue, so their growth should be great. A key indicator of ad spend.
  • $ROKU - The stock is down almost 64% from ATH, but the fundamentals keep improving. I expect great results from the company, with ARPU growing and margins expanding.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (Nov 1-5)
Hey guys! Here's next week's earnings calendar! Several very interesting companies set to report earnings. Here's the one's I'm most excited about and why:

  • $APPS: any sign of iOS ad dollars shifting to android (Digital Turbine's revenues are mostly from android).
  • $Z: an update on the real estate market and iBuying
  • $LYFT and $UBER: is mobility in the US back to pre-pandemic levels?
  • $COIN metrics on the NFT market.
  • $PENN and $DKNG update on the mobile sports betting market.
  • $ATVI number of Call of Duty Warzone players. The last reported number was 100MM.
  • $CRSR: comments on the supply chain issues they're experiencing.
  • $MELI: update on the Brazilian e-commerce market. Relevant for $SE's expansion.
Comment below which earnings report you are looking forward to the most!
Friendly reminder: you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Nate Pabrai's avatar
$17.1m follower assets
Cantillon Effect and the case for the Chicken Nuggets trade
The Cantillon Effect is the observation that when new money is created, the goods and services that first touch that new money see the rise in prices more than goods and services that are distanced from the new money injection by more transactions.

Since the US and EU each seem to be on track to do about 10% of their GDP in stimulus I think it is valuable to think about where that money will be injected. I don't think that markets are weighing that this support could continue for many more months which means more upside to a Cantillon Effect trade. This effect still applies in a deflationary environment as well since even as general prices would decline, the goods and services closest to the injection would see gains relative to the general market.

By far the largest interventions have been to backstop the bond market. At the margin bond holders have more purchasing power than they otherwise would and since in the US it is unlikely nominal interest rates go below 0% there is a low income, low potential for appreciation and non-zero risk. Furthermore bonds will have less of the previous inverse relationship to equities due to the limited further reduction in nominal yields. It would be reasonable to expect alternatives like gold $GLD to receive more marginal bids in this environment.

Income replacement is and will continue to be a key point these dollars are injected. This means money in the hands of low and middle income consumers. I believe restaurants that have proven to be able to grow in a 'take-out-first' environment to have pricing power. $WING is a good contender having grown same store sales by 31.9% yoy in Q2 and increasing net income by 134% yoy. Wingstop is like Chipotle 15 years ago with plenty of room to grow ahead. It has proven to be able to adapt to the COVID environment, and stands to benefit from fiscal stimulus.

I believe you can take advantage of the Cantillon Effect by buying Chicken $WING and Nuggets $GLD



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