Refining Margins
  • Pretty spectacular pop in refining margins.
  • Permanent refinery closures since the start of 2019 reduced global capacity by around 4.7mn barrels per day, Barclays estimates, and new refinery capacity such as at Kuwait’s Al Zour can’t be brought quick enough. As a result, US and European refinery gross margins are least four times the long-run average
  • $PSX $VLO etc.
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This Weeks Trades
Wow, what a week. Both my income and growth portfolios are fully in the red for the first time. There are some great buying opportunities out there and I will continue adding to my income portfolio when a company meets my criteria and price range. Holding off adding growth stocks at the moment, looking for some positive momentum.

Income Portfolio: Trailing stop hit on my position in $VLO so completely out of this trade now for a 99% return since Aug 2021. Opened new positions in $EGP $EXR $KMI and $AVY. Collected dividends on $WHR $NEE $HDV and $SDIV

Growth Portfolio: Trailing stop hit on $ENPH for a 16% return. I will likely look to add back at some point as I see great potential in this company over the longer term. Trimmed some of my $AMWL shares, and will look to sell more when the price is right.

Speculative: No adds or sells but my holdings of $CRSP finally turned green so that is pleasing
Crack Spreads
Crack spreads measure the difference between crude oil as an input and heating oil as well as gasoline as outputs -- in other words: what do refiners pay for crude vs. what can they sell the products for.

The spread is trading at record highs, fueling the rally in refineries -- more here: https://www.bluelinefutures.com/insights/post/421/

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Portfolio Performance May 2022
Thank the stars for the past 2 days. I made some adds when the market was down at good valuations. Fingers crossed we get a turnaround, but still have some of those down days to pick up some bargains.

Income portfolio slightly outperformed the SPY. Biggest gainer was $VLO up 18%, biggest loser was $HTGC down 13%.

Growth and Value portfolio down 9% for the month. Biggest gainer was $SOFI up 23%, biggest loser was $U down 37%

Swing trades got whacked again down 5% for the month, not much else to add to that :(
Best gainer was $GTBP up 32%, while $MOGO lost 36% with crypto crashing, again. Big spike in the graph unfortunately wasn't a massive win, jus a reverse split
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Thanks for the transparency! Do you find that you are more emotionally attached to one portfolio over the others? Do you have much overlap across the 3?
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Thoughts on $VLO
Any feedback welcome.

I bought $VLO in Aug 21 primarily as a dividend stock. Its grown over 70% since (yay) and my YOC is over 6%. I'm deciding whether I should sell and take profits, or keep for the dividends, with the risk that there will be capital depreciation down the road.
I'm not familiar with this company but looks like @taylorduran has been selling shares of $VLO this week. And @tc26 was doing in February and March. Maybe you can weigh in on your thought process, Taylor and Tyler?
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 24-28th) - BIG week ahead!
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Definitely a very busy week ahead. Here's what I'll be looking at:

  • $MSFT - Can Azure keep its growth rate? Will a slowdown cause a sell-off similar to the one $NFLX had?
  • $TSLA - Post earnings reaction. This is one of the few high-growth stocks that has shown relative strength. Let's see if this changes post ER.
  • $LOGI - Is demand for gaming peripherals still strong? May be an early indicator of videogaming strength.
  • $AAPL - It's always interesting to hear what Apple is doing.
  • $V - Data on consumer spending.
  • $CVX - General comments on the energy market.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:

TUE:

WED:

THU:

FRI:
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Featured earnings for the week of Oct 18
Earnings season (finally) getting into full gear!

So many interesting companies announcing earnings next week. Here are is the Fincredible Featured list. View all here.

Here are some I own / or particularly interested in

$JNJ - very interested to see results in the medical devices segment. Specifically are their signs of closing the gap with $ISRG with their new platform and are elective surgeries coming back

$ISRG - flip side of the $JNJ narrative. I love it when competitors announce close to each other :)

$NFLX - international subscriber numbers

$T - update on discovery spin-off, dividend and 5G capex

$XM - $MNTV is my top 3 holding based on thesis they are making inroads in enterprise market, which $XM dominates. Big enough market for both but want some context.

A few companies like $PG on inflation numbers, but I suspect @awallis will be kinda enough to provide a MacroTalk update on this topic again

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