Jonathan Garcia's avatar
$10.4m follower assets
I try to think about my portfolio in terms of the strategy I had in mind at the beginning of the year. On 1/3/22, I had large positions in Cathie Wood stocks like $TDOC, $COIN, and $TWLO. We all know what happened to Cathie’s stocks. They have been the worst performers. COIN being the worst, down 70%. I still hold them, however. I haven’t completely lost faith.

Earlier in the year, I stated that I wanted to build heavier positions in MSFT, GOOG, and META because I did not think they would be affected as much by the economic downturn. I did indeed build up heavier positions in $MSFT, $GOOG, and $META as can be seen on the chart. META would be in a higher position but is down significantly on the year. I do believe that META is attractively priced right now.

Another thing I mentioned earlier in the year is how I was heavy in ecommerce and fintech. My ecom and fintech holdings are down significantly. I haven’t sold, still holding on. I am slowly accumulating. $ETSY and $UPST are some of my favorites for these areas. Also, like $RVLV.

I did add what I consider to be safer positions to my portfolio in an effort to preserve value. These types of additions included $UPS, $UNH, and $CNC. I am either up a little or down a little on these. They’ve done the job I’ve asked of them.

Back in January, I also said I would slowly keep buying Chinese stocks. Interestingly, these are my best performers for the year. $FUTU up 38%. $VIPS up 19%. $PDD up 27%.

A few weeks ago or so, I did some panic trading. It was hard to think clearly with all the down days. I was in and out of a few stocks over a period of a few days. I’m at a better place mentally now. I’m going to stick to my convictions. Will my strategy work? I don’t know, but I’m enjoying the process of learning and growing as an investor. Green days inspire hope. Red days are instructive and build discipline.
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A bear case for energy
Oil stocks are going parabolic. Headlines say that oil prices will continue to remain high for a very long time. The things I'm seeing in the transportation sector make me think that the oil rally could end sooner than we realize.

First, US rail traffic remains below 2021 levels. Railroads run on gasoline and natural gas. If there's less demand for gasoline and gas from the railroad industry, then that reduces demand for gasoline.

Second, shipping demand is declining. $ZIM is down nearly 15% today and $MATX is down nearly 12%. Based on the stock chart patterns, the shipping rally could be over.

Third, the decline in e-commerce is reducing the demand for transportation services altogether. $UPS and $FDX rely immensely on e-commerce growth for revenue growth. If other transportation companies see lower demand for their services, then it would mean that even FedEx and UPS should be seeing lower demand for their services too.

This year's busy travel season can be the fuel that provides the last stampede in the oil rally. Airlines, cruises, taxis, and other modes of transportation consume huge amounts of energy. It would be no surprise to be that the busy travel season will be why WTI Crude hits $150/barrel during the summer.

After this year's busy travel season, I wouldn't be surprised if the economy enters a recession shortly after. And with a recession, energy prices will plunge significantly as demand for energy has plunged.
Oil may drop... refined products may not (at least not relationally). Downstream companies should have a very good 2Q and 2nd half of the year.
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The industrial real estate industry is looking to enter a downcycle
According to Wired, $AMZN is looking to cut back on warehouse space as its projections of high online retail sales didn't materialize.

Many of the leases that Amazon made during the pandemic with warehouse providers are now looking to be cut. The recent retail sales report shows that consumers are paying more for items; not buying more items. Even if consumers might still be sitting on a higher pile of savings, inflation is eroding the real value of people's savings.

E-commerce fueled the surge in demand for warehouse space. As the industry endures a slowdown, demand for warehouse space will decline. Many of the pre-leases that e-commerce companies have signed with developers are looking to get cut in the process. Developers will continue to finish the construction of warehouses, only to find that their project will finish at a time when there's a huge glut in the supply of warehouses.

$PLD $STAG and other warehouse stocks will see their pricing power erode. As for the cold storage warehouse providers like $COLD, I do see them handling the supply glut better because demand for cold storage is still high.

Using Dow Theory, the declining demand for warehouse space correspond to a freight recession. Companies are cutting back on transportation services because they are ordering less inventory. $FDX $UPS $JBHT $XPO are other trucking and parcel delivery companies are going to be impacted negatively by the decline in e-commerce. UPS fell after their earnings because of that reason.

For now, I plan on holding $STAG because I enjoy the monthly dividends I receive from it. I'll be monitoring their earnings and reading the earnings transcripts to see how conditions in the warehouse REIT space are holding up.
Like everything tied to retail and consumer demand, bad short term outlook for sure. I’m holding a small amount of $STAG and $PLD. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift lower but I like them long term so I don’t see the point in selling to buy back a little lower. I think demand will come back before it gets really painful. I do see some positives here too. Amazon will stop building their own warehouses now and maybe even sell some as leasing will provide more flexibility in dealing with inventory cycles. The second positive is that as other e-comm businesses scale they will fill in the spaces left by Amazon. Obviously this is dependent on demand coming back but if you think e-comm is still a growing market, warehouses will be integral to that long term, and this is just a temporary bump in the road. Now though the retail and e-comm companies will be more hesitant to try to build their own warehouses as it’s added risk to manage during down cycles. The warehouse as a real estate sector is now a fortified sector for real estate companies.
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New Lows Today @ 10am
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Luka 🦉's avatar
$97.1m follower assets
UPS 💸 $1.52/share
So grateful to $UPS for another juicy dividend hitting my account soon 🤑
UPS is performing tremendously well in my portfolio, +72% return - so happy to be a shareholder of such a great business.
Yield 3.31%
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Stanley's avatar
$12.3m follower assets
All Hail Amazon, King of Logistics!
You just ordered something online from a retailer and receive your shipping notification - "The item you ordered is on it's way and be delivered by Friday, shipped via our partner, Amazon Shipping.".
This idea may not be too far fetched and be coming sooner than you think as it appears that Logistics may just well be the next "AWS" for Amazon, as it prepares to take on $FDX, $UPS and $AMKBY (Maersk) globally head on per rumblings in trade journals.
Amazon is, after all, already moving goods of third parties via Amazon Air, and is testing a standalone courier service, Amazon Shipping, in the UK with a US launch rumored.
Amazon has the infrastructure in place to make a global logistics empire a reality - tracking technology, ground fleet, a growing air fleet, oceanic shipping.
I'm linking a couple of articles below if you are intrigued.
Amazon Air: A Risk To FedEx And UPS?
Amazon and Maersk are setting up a fight for the world’s supply chains
...let me know your thoughts!
Disclosure: Long $AMZN
Luka 🦉's avatar
$97.1m follower assets
Earning Presentations 📊
Last 2 weeks of Earning Presentations for the stocks in my portfolio.
Maybe some of you can be interested in 👇

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ

Lockheed Martin $LMT

Procter & Gamble $PG


Sonoco Products $SON

Genuine Parts Co. $GPC

Kimberly-Clark $KMB (report only)

Verizon $VZ (infographic)

Coca-Cola $KO (report only)

PepsiCo. $PEP (report only)

Archer Daniels Midland $ADM


Kraft-Heinz $KHC

Microsoft $MSFT (ppt presentation)

Essex Property Trust $ESS (report only)

AvalonBay $AVB

The Southern Company $SO

Qualcomm $QCOM

Altria $MO

Intel $INTC

McDonald’s $MCD (report only)

Now without Fincredible, I need to do the dirty work myself 🤣
Earnings Dump, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales: Daily Contrarian, April 26
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are wobbling a bit ahead of a major day for earnings, with $MSFT and $GOOG among the headliners…

We’ve already had several reports already, most of them positive: $UPS $GE $PEP $DHI among them.

Read all about it here:

What to watch for the week of 4/25/22
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be watching for the week beginning April 25th. Check out the link in my bio for a more detailed break down of how I plan to trade this week and view my other graphics.

Hopefully this graphic can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Good luck everyone!
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Q1 2022 earnings reports from many Dividend Stocks
Buckle up everyone, this will be a crazy week! There are so many earnings coming up and this list isn't even complete!

Having said that, what's your favorite company reporting their earnings this week?

#Earnings #stockmarket
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