Sachiv's avatar
$378.9k follower assets
Medtech
$SWAV continues to grow top and bottom line. One of the best recs recd and held since 2020. Looking forward to the next few Qs by $ISRG and $INSP, as well as a solid product roadmap execution by $RBOT #medtech #roboticsurgery
$SWAV Earnings: Results vs. What I Was Looking For
My brief update is in italics.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • 250% revenue growth can't be expected for FY 2022 but Q1'21 was just $31.9MM. If management is going to hit their $415MM guidance for the year, Q1'22 should be revenue growth of at least 200% ($95.7MM).

Close enough. $93.6MM which is 193.5% growth. Additionally, management raised full year guidance at the midpoint by 7.2%. Now guiding for 88% YoY revenue growth.

  • GPM >80%. Keep that margin trending upward.

A record 86.2% gross profit margin, an increase of 1,100bps over Q1'21. Just outstanding.

  • Free cash flow positive.

Free cash flow of ($1.35MM) but that number was (21.35MM) in Q1'21 so that's a good improvement.

  • Just curious to see how the revenue by geography breaks down, Europe in particular, who accounted for just 16.3% of 2021 revenue.

Europe was up 47% YoY a a single quarter record of $12.01MM. Going forward, I'll be watching the Other countries category since that's where Japan falls (where ShockWave gained recent approval).

They're currently up 11.3% after-hours (after falling 15.6% during the day for no reason other than The Great Revaluation). The thesis for this company remains very, very on track. This company is high atop my list of current positions I want to add to. The below just warms my heart.
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$SWAV $PUBM $UPST Earnings: What I'm Looking For
ShockWave Medical, Inc. ($SWAV) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
ShockWave has increased revenue by 13,696% from 2017 to 2021. And if you think it's cheating since revenue in 2017 was just $1.7MM, fine. They did, however, increase revenue from 2020 to 2021 by 250% up to $237.1MM. Their IVL treatment has taken off.

Look at what they've done so far. Those margins movements are making me swoon.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • 250% revenue growth can't be expected for FY 2022 but Q1'21 was just $31.9MM. If management is going to hit their $415MM guidance for the year, Q1'22 should be revenue growth of at least 200% ($95.7MM).
  • GPM >80%. Keep that margin trending upward.
  • Free cash flow positive.
  • Just curious to see how the revenue by geography breaks down, Europe in particular, who accounted for just 16.3% of 2021 revenue.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 30th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.70 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (40.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (27.5%)

PubMatic, Inc. ($PUBM) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Looking for a beat on revenue guidance ($54MM at the midpoint).
  • NRR needs to remain strong. 140% would be a slowdown but still a really good number.
  • Ad impressions >32.4T
  • CTV/OTT publisher count >195

Current position:
Total cost basis: 51st highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.27 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (16.2%)
Annualized $SPY return: (16.9%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (31.7%)

Upstart Holdings, Inc. ($UPST) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
Their growth was outrageous in 2021. Can it sustain? Is 3.72 forward sales cheap or expensive? I'd argue cheap. I hope I'm right.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Management seems to sandbag guidance every quarter. They've beaten their own midpoint guidance by nearly 15% on average the past 4 Qs. They're guiding for $300MM at the midpoint in Q1, which is $4MM below where Q4. I'm looking for at least $340MM.
  • I'm not concerned with Upstart becoming profitable yet. I'd rather they work on gaining market share. However, 2021 was a big drop in net income. Their balance sheet is good but not great. Keep increasing FCF or scale back net losses.
  • Conversion rate and contribution margins will be key. Also, some internet sleuths noticed they updated their About page to say 74% of loans have been fully automated through 12/31/21. However, their recent 10-K had that number at 69% for 2021. Very curious to see what their Q1 % is.
  • Concentration risk needs to keep decreasing. This one is important. Cross River Bank was a record low 55% of all loans originated (previously 67% in 2020 and 89% in 2019) and 56% of revenue (63% and 80%, respectively). However, 55%/56% is still quite high. A second bank has actually increased as CRB decreased. Bank Unknown went from 24% of loans in 2020 to 36% in 2021 and 18% of revenue to 27%. I really want to see CRB decrease without any/a substantial increase to this other bank.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.73 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: (63.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.7%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (28.8%)
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Sachiv's avatar
$378.9k follower assets
$SWAV posts strong results and encouraging outlook

After a 3.5x growth over 2020(and 5.6x 2019), it still forecasts a 70% growth rate for 2022…it’s now net income positive vs a loss(q4, not full year), and shows an uptick in gross profit (85% vs full year 83%). I cannot find the cash flow statements…yet.

Any doctors/surgeons out there who can comment on this? After $ISRG , it’s my next largest medtech holding.
That's (the 3.5x) some real impressive revenue growth :) ($SWAV shareholder here) I couldn't find the cash flow statement either and I wonder why it seems to have been omitted. I thought all companies are required to report it?
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Paul Essen's avatar
$209.2m follower assets
Five companies that I hold in my portfolio are reporting earnings this week.

Excited: $TTD, $RDFN (expecting strong results from both)
Nervous: $FVRR (what will growth look like?)
Interested: $SWAV, $ROKU (takeover rumors and state of streaming service growth)

What about you?
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 14th - 18th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Three of my holdings report next week.

  • $ABNB - The stock has held up pretty well during the market sell-off. The valuation is still high, but with re-openings the company could see a big boost this year.
  • $TTD - They've said Apple IDFA is a non-issue, so their growth should be great. A key indicator of ad spend.
  • $ROKU - The stock is down almost 64% from ATH, but the fundamentals keep improving. I expect great results from the company, with ARPU growing and margins expanding.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Paul Essen's avatar
$209.2m follower assets
Lots of talk of Spotify Wrapped. Why not Portfolio Wrapped?

Top 5 positions in terms of performance YTD:

$SWAV +70%
$TSLA +47%
$ETSY +46%
$AXON +36%
$SHOP +32%

Full disclosure: The bottom 5 are a lot uglier.
Austin Lieberman's avatar
$450.9m follower assets
$SWAV Coronary IVL System launch going well & 104% YoY preliminary Q1 Rev growth guidance
Update on @shockwaveivl $SWAV.

Coronary IVL launch going as expected

Q1 '21 expected to be $31M-$32M, up 104%-111% YoY

I'm long $SWAV, $ABMD, $NARI, $TNDM, & $EXAS in my "not overvalued, misunderstood re-opening beneficiary" bucket.

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