Steve Matt's avatar
$10.6m follower assets
My May Returns Are In!... And They're Not Great (Still).
As I said in April, my horizon remains 20+ years out. I see my portfolio getting pummeled right now and generally don't care. I only see opportunity.

Retirement Portfolio
In May, I added to $ABNB, $BIPC, $CHWY, $CRM, $CRWD, $DDOG, $GLOB, $JPM, $MMM, $MPW, $O, $OKTA, $PEP, $PGNY, $PLD, $PUBM, $SHW, $SWAV, $TROW, $U, $UPST, and $ZS. I also added to $AAPL, $COST, $JPM, $O, $SBNY, and $SBUX via DRIP. I exited $SMG and $XYL.

May saw my retirement portfolio retreat by 6.86%, bringing my YTD fall to 37.36%, easily getting beat by $SPY, $QQQ, and $VTI.

I'm still learning this new investment software so my all-time performance below is only through the end of 2021.

It's safe to say QQQ is beating me by at least a couple hundred bps through May 31, 2022. I'm certainly still trouncing SPY though.

My Top 10 holdings by current market value make up ~34% of my portfolio.

Taxable Portfolio
My taxable brokerage is ~10% of my total investments. It's also much more speculative (early stage medtech is a big portion). In May, I added to $SILK, $BTC.X, and $ETH.X. Nothing in my taxable brokerage pays a dividend so no DRIP. I didn't exit anything either.

May saw my taxable portfolio retreat by 9.67%, bringing my YTD fall to 42.22%, easily getting beat by $SPY, $QQQ, and $VTI.

My taxable has gone through 3 different iterations over the past 13-ish years. You can see there was no holdings around 2013 and again around 2017 as I sold out of all positions for different life reasons. The beginning to 2013 iteration was the "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing, let me buy random companies I know with no research and pray" phase. Thankfully it was a bull market and I got lucky. The 2014 to 2017 iteration was "I nailed it last time. I'ma do that again but also play with options as well" phase. You can see how well that worked out.

This iteration is actual research with a what-can-this-company-be-in-a-decade being my main thought. This approach is why I don't mind seeing my this portfolio getting whooped. None of the positions in this portfolio are core holdings, which means I follow them quarter-by-quarter via 10-Q/K, press releases, general news, etc. I have my finger on the pulse and the underlying businesses are performing as I hoped or struggling by with bright spots (looking at you $DMTK, $LMND, and $BIGC).

(Note: I didn't lose almost all my money in 2015 but I can't figure out why the software is calculating it that way. 2015 was a bad year in the taxable portfolio but not that bad. Hopefully I have it corrected for my June update).

My Top 10 holdings by current market value make up ~90% of my portfolio.
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Steve Matt's avatar
$10.6m follower assets
1 of 10
401k Buys
They didn't all map over to Commonstock so here's a breakdown of my monthly 401k buys. I buy the same dollar amount of each once per month. This month equaled ~13% more to each total cost basis.

$BIPC - Added ~12% more shares
$CRM - Added ~20% more shares
$PEP - Added ~12% more shares
$O - Added ~13% more shares
$MMM - Added ~14% more shares
$SHW - Added ~14% more shares
$MPW - Added ~16% more shares
$PLD - Added ~16% more shares
$JPM - Added ~16% more shares
$TROW - Added ~18% more shares
3 New Additions
I picked up some $UPST, $CPNG, and $SHW first thing this a.m.

10% drop on Upstart's usual volatility caught my attention, so I added.

Coupang is down on $SFTBY selling $1B of its stock. Business is still fine, IMO, if not improving.

Sherwin-Williams has now lost 1/3rd of its market value, which seems wild. But, considering the tight housing market, we will probably continue to face for the next 5-10 years in America, I love this decline. It just got ahead of itself in 2021 a little bit.
$SHW will be a great long term opportunity. Nice to get in when it is beaten down. Huge margins in the coatings business and consistent demand - especially in the architectural market where the majority of their business is
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 24-28th) - BIG week ahead!
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Definitely a very busy week ahead. Here's what I'll be looking at:

  • $MSFT - Can Azure keep its growth rate? Will a slowdown cause a sell-off similar to the one $NFLX had?
  • $TSLA - Post earnings reaction. This is one of the few high-growth stocks that has shown relative strength. Let's see if this changes post ER.
  • $LOGI - Is demand for gaming peripherals still strong? May be an early indicator of videogaming strength.
  • $AAPL - It's always interesting to hear what Apple is doing.
  • $V - Data on consumer spending.
  • $CVX - General comments on the energy market.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Passing on the costs
With worrisome prints from the CPI index I'm trying to think of companies best positioned to pass on additional costs to consumers.

  • Distributors should fare better than suppliers - I think of $FAST and grocery stores as consumers tend to shift toward store brands when prices get high -- Breakdown of discount grocer $GO can be seen here

  • Leaders in consolidated markets with steady or increasing demand - $SHW is a beneficiary of continued home renovations + infrastructure bill

  • $V and $MA take a cut of every transaction so they should at least track inflation
  • $GLD has to become in vogue at some point (right?!)

What companies may not be able to pass on the costs?

  • Auto manufactures are already dealing with supply chain issues/ labor wage issues/ chip shortages so a weaker consumer can't be good. Perhaps spending on vehicles shifts more towards the used car market and benefits the likes of $KMX or $CVNA
  • Cruise liners are dependent on discretionary spending from those with disposable income $CCL $RCL

I'm surely overlooking a lot of industries effected by a presumably weaker consumer. Some may say that a higher CPI print signals that the fed should raise rates but the combination of higher costs & higher rates surely disproportionately effects the poor who depend on financing.

A lot to unpack here but I'm interested to hear how others are positioning themselves for higher inflation. I'm also interested if anyone is in the camp that inflation is in fact transitory and how you're positioning yourself to fade the news.
Technology companies in particular should be able to pass on the costs because of the nature of the industry. Companies with strong competitive positioning should also fair well. In changing market dynamics, it is important to invest in high quality companies. I think $FB and $GOOGL are in particularly good spots for passing on costs.
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Big Week Ahead! (Oct 25-29 Earnings Calendar)
Next week will probably be the most interesting week for the stock market this quarter. The largest companies in the world are all reporting and we'll get a lot of very valuable insights.

Here's what I'm interested in:
  • More context on the slowdown in ad spending from $FB $GOOG and $TWTR. Let's see if these companies are experiencing similar issues to the ones $SNAP mentioned yesterday.
  • Comments on the global supply chain issues from $KMB $MMM $GLW $LOGI and others.
  • A general update from $AMD $TDOC $SHOP and$AMZN.
  • Perspectives on the energy market from $XOM $CVX

Comment below what earnings call you're looking forward to!

Remember you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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