Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 9
Hello friends, today I moved further with my portfolio consolidation process.

  • I sold out of $S, there's nothing specific wrong there, but I stay stunned by just how Microsoft's position throughout all kinds of enterprise software is strong. Crowdstrike, Microsoft and SentinelOne usually score the best in all sorts of 3rd party research, therefore it makes sense for me to consolidate.

SentinelOne is great, but we are entering a very unkeen environment for companies heavily spending instead of bringing cash flows, which I'm fine with, but when looking at the optionality, profitability and growth, I'm very much fine with $MSFT here. Many maybe don't know, but $MSFT is growing its CyberSec division by 50%, or at least did YoY, pulling about $15B in sales last year, which is just INSANE! So, from now on my coverage of CyberSec will be through $GOOGL (soon to likely buy $MNDT), $NET $DDOG $MSFT $ZS and $SNOW.

  • I also sold a position in $SE as I'm beginning to be very concerned about their tempo of cash burn (about $1,9B in Q4 and additional $1,6B in Q1) despite management's encouraging comments regarding coming profitability. So for now, no $SE for me. $MELI in this condition looks like a better R/R now to me.
  • I added significantly to my $MSFT position, should be visible by tomorrow. I also added to my other favorites such as $AAPL $TTD $TSLA and $NVDA.
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I like the stable growth companies with a long track record of success. So I’m definitely with you on the $GOOG, $MSFT, and $NVDA. Analyzing the newer companies is out of my wheelhouse. I like the valuation of Microsoft and Google especially, but bought Nvidia for both kids’ custodial accounts. Personally, I don’t think there are two better companies on the planet than Google and Microsoft to own. When my safety of principle is considered. Especially after they were the sole two companies standing after last weeks research. Impressive.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Brief news 4/5/22
$AMD reported earnings, here visualized:

$ABNB reported earnings, here visualized:

Airbnb's CEO Brian Chesky also announced a large event coming in a week on May 11 where the company should unveil the largest changes to the platform in a decade.

$AFRM to become a first BNPL partner fully integrated to Carat operating system from enterprise payment provider $FISV.

$COIN opened up their NFT Marketplace to everyone.

$CRM ranked as #1 CRM provider by IDC for 9th year in a row.

$DOCU hires Steve Shute, a former SAP leader with over 25 years of experience to help DocuSign scale beyond e-signatures; grow Agreement Cloud.

$PATH announced integration with $CRM's MuleSoft.

$PLTR won a $90m 5-year contract with HHS.

$ROKU announced new shoppable ad experiences in OneView, new collaboration with $MSFT + new Roku Originals and Roku Brand Studio programs.

$S completed an acquisition of Attivo Networks, a leading identity security provider.

$SQ and $RAD partnered to provide Afterpay's BNPL for everyday items.
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Ryan Mahony's avatar
$17.3m follower assets
Cybersecurity
I spoke to a contact at a large software reseller who told me they sell $S and $CRWD to the SMB market. He could not tell me much about any product differences between the two but said they are selling more $S than $CRWD and sometimes $S is sold as a replacement for $CRWD.

Since there was no understanding by the sales rep as to why $S is better I can infer a few things.
$S is winning on price only with smaller clients who are more price conscious. Larger enterprise clients (Fortune 500 and governments) which lean to $CRWD are less price conscious and more concerned with product fit, scalability and reliability of the platform.

$S is looking to grow at all costs, sacrificing margins (profit and FCF) to a customer set that is more apt to churn while $CRWD focuses on higher margin, large enterprise clients that tend not to churn based on price alone.

Anyone have thoughts on this? Do you think this is accurate?
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (March 14th - 18th)
Earnings season is slowing down, but there are still several very interesting companies reporting next week.

  • $DLO - This company is really interesting. Growing quickly and profitably (28% net profit margin last quarter) while solving a real pain-point for companies.
  • $GTLB - Don't know much about this company, but I've seen a lot of people commenting on it lately so I'll keep an eye out.
  • $S - Extremely expensive cybersecurity stock.
  • $FDX - Not interested in investing in the business, but very interested in their outlook for the supply chain and the impact of higher energy costs.
  • $LEN - Homebuilder. Let's see what their comments are on the supply chain + demand for housing in the US.

What company are you interested in?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
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Cybersecurity Industry Breakdown: One of my focus for 2022 and Q4 Earnings Report
This is a breakdown of the entire security industry:

The most popular sectors are Cloud Security and Endpoint protection security.

I am looking forward to the reports for each of these players within each category to extrapolate which sectors will grow the fastest.

Key companies to watch: $NET $CRWD $S $FTNT $ZS $PANW $MSFT $PLTR

Hope this breakdown helps people!
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Thanks for the breakdown! From an enterprise client standpoint, maybe even from a smaller sized business, one would think they wouldn't want three different security products, they would prefer one that has what they really need and covers the other service areas as adjacent service offerings?

When I try and analyse stocks in the space, I am always trying to think through this. Yes some of these services are 'mission critical' and attract higher spending than the rest, but would you rather pick the one that is the best in a specific cybersec offering, or maybe rank them based on how good all of their offerings are and choose the one which is okay in most of them?
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The Rule of 40
The Rule of 40 is used as a comparison metric for high growth SaaS companies that are not yet profitable.

The rule states that a company's revenue growth rate plus profitability margin should be equal to or greater than 40%.

Assumptions

  • Based on most recently available quarterly results

  • Operating Income used as measure for profitability margin

This is a single metric viewed in isolation. It makes for useful comparison but should not be solely relied upon when performing due diligence.

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Highlights from Sentinel One $S Earnings Call!
Sentinel One is down today after its Q3 earnings report yesterday. The decline is probably due to concerns about its valuation of around 57x ARR. However, I found the earnings call very interesting and I'm hoping the stock continues to fall so that I can invest at a reasonable valuation.

Here are a few quotes from the Sentinel One earnings call that I found relevant:

Would love to hear bull/bear cases for this company in the comments.
$S is a pricey one indeed, at 77x sales—but even that is down from 120x sales in November. Looks like IPO lockup expires tomorrow? So a sweeter entry point may be just around the corner.
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