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A look back at $GM's investments in electrified transportation
GM's most recent electrified transportation was in an electric boat startup named Pure Watercraft, a pontoon boat business.
Considering that Polaris $PII is in the pontoon boat business, they're a competitor of Pure Watercraft. It's possible that Polaris could consider acquiring Pure Watercraft in the future.
Let's hope that General Motors's stake in electric boats goes well.
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If the electric boat market held so much promise wouldn't Elon have already made more progress there or be talking about it more?
Also apparently there is a Tesla yacht...for $700M.
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 28th - Mar 4th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Two of my holdings, $SE and $SOFI report next week, so I'll be paying significant attention to both. Other than that, I'm also interested in seeing what retailers like $TGT $BBY and $COST have to say about supply chain issues and inflation.
Good luck to everyone!
If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.
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Mega week for earnings! (Nov 8-12)
Here are featured earnings we are paying attention to @ Fincredible.
The ones I'm paying close attention are:
$PYPL - Want to learn more about their plans for 'super app', integration of BNPL and if any color on rumored $PINS acqn, which is now dead (or never was there). I own some $PYPL
$PLTR - I think I'm the only non-bull on this company. I'm unsure of their technological prowess and confused by their corporate governance. I don't own and have no plans, but just curious.
$COIN - I have no exposure in crypto except via a managed investment on Titan, but I think this is a great way to continue to learn and try and get smarter
$U - I like this company a lot. I'm particularly interested in their non-gaming revenues which I think is a larger TAM. Selfishly, I'm hoping this stock falls after earnings (Sorry for the many who own it) so I can buy on the dip, but not expecting it.
$SOFI $AFRM - I view both of these innovative companies but are overpriced, and don't have as much moat as people give them credit. Yet always interested to hear about them to be proven wrong, and given my investments in $PYPL, banks, and various private fintechs
$EHTH - not Ethereum, but eHealth. Given they fired most of the management team recently, always interested in what the tone/focus of the call is.
BTW as of this week, for S&P 500 companies (plus other popular stocks) you can not only play the calls in real-time at Fincredible, but also read the transcript and monitor specific keywords in real-time. Check it out - https://app.fincredible.ai/latest-earnings
AMO: $AMC $PYPL $RBLX $CLOV $SPCE $DDD $SDC $LMND $TME $ZNGA $NVTA $MTRX $UEPS $REAL $TRIP $LOTZ $JKHY $RCEL
Are SPACs Back? My thoughts on a SPAC Picker’s Market.
Since SPAC sentiment hit it’s peak in February with the announcement of the CCIV and $LCID merger, it has been quite popular for mainstream financial media and financial Twitter alike to bash SPACs, and for good reason. Companies like $NKLA, $RIDE and $MNTS have left a sour taste in the mouth of investors for promising massive growth opportunities and downright lying in same cases. However, just like it has been a stock pickers market for all of 2021, I believe that there are absolutely some diamonds in the rough within the SPAC ecosystem.
Four companies I like moving forward include: $MP (Complete de-SPAC) $LCID (Recently went through PIPE sell off), $ASTR and $RKLB. These companies represent the various stages of a SPAC life cycle and offer very different investing/trading opportunities.
$MP is a rare earth materials mining company located in Las Vegas, Nevada that owns and operates the Mountain Pass Mine, the only currently operation rare earth minerals mine in the Western Hemisphere. MP Materials looks to grow the rare earth materials supply chain and return it to the United States after China has taken over 90% of the worlds supply chain. With the adoption of batteries for electric vehicles, increased use of wind turbines and other applications, look for this $6 billion dollar market cap company continue to make moves to the upside. Current analyst price target average: $45 (32% upside)
$LCID Lucid Motors is most certainly a household name for all investors by this point, engulfing retail traders in excitement and anticipation for the announced merger with CCIV in February, after which coincided with the significant drop we saw at the end of February and into March. Consistently labeled as the $TSLA killer, Lucid has yet to deliver a single car. Rightly so, there are a lot of questions about its high valuation just over $37 billion. While $37 billion is a high valuation for a company with 0 deliveries (this will change in October with the first vehicles slated for delivery), $LCID, like $TSLA, is a technology company. Batteries in development currently have over a 500 mile range and there are talks about licensing and manufacturing these batteries for other legacy automakers looking to get involved in the EV trend. With deliveries incoming, there are many positive catalysts on the calendar over the next few months. Current analyst price target average: $28 (22% upside)
$ASTR is a company I made a post on recently, with its recent earnings report along with its first commercial launch conducted for the DOD and Space Force. While the launch was not a complete success, getting to space is extremely difficult. I believe that the space sector of the market will only continue to grow its important and prevalence in our society. With possible contracts in the pipeline and a successful commercial launch on the horizon this stock has the ability to move. Current analyst price target average: $13 (36% upside - only one analyst initiated coverage)
Lastly, my current personal favorite - $RKLB. The only publicly traded direct competitor to SpaceX, Rocketlab has been named the “highest quality space asset to enter the public market so far.” With a proven track record of successful launches under its belt, $RKLB will look to continue building out its “Satellite-as-a-Service” business model along with its contracts with NASA and other government agencies. Perhaps most exciting is the mission planned to the moon for NASA’s Artemis mission later in 2021. With a rocket in development, the Neutron, a direct competitor to the Falcon 9, a mission to Venus and a mission to Mars, this company is a leader in the space sector. However, the lock up expiration period will end on the 22nd of September, so there may be movement to the downside over the short term. Yet, with missions planned for September 30th and throughout October, I will continue to DCA. Current analyst price target: $24 (37% upside)
Honorable SPAC Mentions:
$CCIV ➡️ $LCID happens today. Time for Lucid Motors to deliver as a publicly listed company and decouple from the hype surrounding itself as the “Tesla Killer.” Although there are over 10,000 reservations for their vehicles, we have seen in recent months that reservations do not translate to deliveries (See $RIDE). With an already lofty valuation, #LucidMotors will have to stand on its own after the most highly anticipated SPAC of 2021. I personally am #Long but see high volatility coming!
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*Nothing wrong with taking some profits after a strong day like today… PIPE investors still haven’t made their moves yet and if the previous large name SPACs are evidence, I’ll buy back in lower
Is Lordstown Motors taking investors for a $RIDE?
I'll be publishing a few short threads based on a forensic accounting analysis of $RIDE over the next few weeks on Twitter.
There is a ton of controversy surrounding the company, and the SEC filings hide plenty of accounting red flags in plain sight.
Here is the link to the first thread:
Red Flag #1: How to scream “I might go bankrupt” - without making a fuzz?
Hope you enjoy it! And let me know your thoughts/comments.
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This is super good- Aquiba you make accounting read like a thriller or a mystery novel!
Except there are real world repercussions and possibly some actionable investing decisions to be made. My favorite 😎
And the Next Market Disruptors are… eVTOL Vehicles?
Formally described as electric take-off and landing vehicles, eVTOLs have seen a major increase in media airtime and publicity over the past year as four companies have chosen to go public via Special Purpose Acquisition Companies. JOBY Aviation ($RTP - $6.6 billion valuation) Archer Aviation ($ACIC - $3.8 billion valuation), Lilium ($QELL - $3.3 billion valuation) and Vertical Aerospace ($BSN - $2.2 billion valuation) are all at various stages of their respective SPAC progress, looking for large infusions of capital (and equally high valuations) to disrupt the transportation industry. There are more than just four companies who are looking to get a share of these newly imagined mode of transportation. Eve Urban Air Mobility (Rumored to merge with $ZNTE ), Wisk (Backed by $BA ) Beta, Ehang, Blade, Volocopter, and Kitty Hawk are all eVTOL companies looking to gain market share in the transportation of people and cargo. But also let’s not forget about legacy aircraft manufacturers who will look (or are already involved) to produce eVTOLs, just as legacy automakers FORD and GENERAL MOTORS have begun production of electric vehicles. For one, Airbus has already begun the development and planning for eVTOL and Bell Flight, a Texas based military and Cessna producer, has begun the approval process through the FAA.
Primarily focused on Urban Air Mobility (UAM), these companies are looking to revolutionize the way individuals travel in large congested cities to avoid the pitfalls of traffic as well as reduce climate pollution. With an estimated Total Addressable Market of $1.5 trillion dollars per year through their flashy PowerPoint presentations, these companies look to the shared mobility market, airlines, cargo, and military/defense sources for their projected orders and revenue generation.
On the surface, these companies look like they are primed to take over as the next transportation sector disruptor. However, just like the EV SPAC craze of 2020, the market is already getting crowded and questions are arising on the viability of all these companies surviving the grueling process of technology development and regulatory approval. Yet, well known investors and companies are pouring millions of dollars’ worth of investments into these companies and ordering billions of dollars’ worth of aircraft set to be delivered by 2024.
Let’s take a look at the pre-orders to date for these companies:
First, in February of 2021 Archer Aviation landed a $1 billion order of Archer aircraft (representing about 200 aircraft) with the option to purchase an additional $500 million more. In order to facilitate this order, Archer partnered with automotive conglomerate Stellantis (newly formed partnership between Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and the PSA Group) to ramp up manufacturing and production in order to meet the delivery timeline of 2023.
Next, Vertical Aerospace just recently (June 12th) announced that it has 1,000 preorders for its aircraft, announcing American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, and Microsoft as some of its major supporters. Of these 1,000 pre-ordered aircraft, American Airlines has agreed to order 250 with an option for 100 more, Virgin Galactic has a pre-order option for up to 150, and aircraft leasing company Avolon has pre-orders and options for 500. With additional partnerships with Rolls-Royce and Honeywell, Vertical Aerospace looks to quickly secure regulatory approvals for its aircraft across the European Union.
Additionally, Beta, a still private company focused on eVTOL production, secured an order of 150 aircraft from UPS in April of 2021, with the first ten aircraft to be delivered by 2024.
While Joby Aviation has yet to announce any major partnerships or preorders (that I could find), it was the company that bought Uber Elevate in December of 2020 and received over $100 million dollars of investment from Uber through part of that deal. Also through part of this deal, Joby will use Uber’s app to offer these air taxi rides when the aircraft enter service.
The goal of these companies is to provide rapid, cheap, and climate friendly transportation intra-city as well as intercity depending on the distance. For example, Joby Aviation lists Hollywood to Palm Springs California as one of its proposed routes, cutting a 2 and a half hour drive to a 52 minute flight at a estimated cost of around $3.30 per mile, comparable to an UberX ride. Archer lists downtown Manhattan to JFK Airport as one of its proposed routes, cutting an estimated drive time of an hour and a half to 7 minutes, costing a passenger $50. Right now, the projections for these aircrafts are to be able to travel approximately 60 miles at 150 mph with a trip much quieter than a traditional helicopter, approximately 100 times quitter according to presentations.
Yet, there are some major hurdles that they companies must surpass to be successful. To start, these companies do not yet have any streams of revenue. Preorders are nice, but as we have seen with the likes of Lordstown Motors ($RIDE), preorders don’t mean a whole lot until deliveries are made and transactions are processed. With a cash flow breakeven goal of Q4 2025, a lot will have to go right for this to happen. Another hurdle is successful regulatory approval from the FAA for their design, technology, and ability to travel through airspace.
With a projected approval date of 2024 for Archer, there is a long way to go with a lot that can happen in the meantime. Lastly, while these companies may be able to deliver on their product, that is not enough. So much infrastructure development will need to be built out for these vehicles to be able to travel, take off, and land from large metropolitan cities and travel to either airports or other points of locations.
One bright spot? Cathie Wood owns Archer Aviation ($33 million) and Joby Aviation ($12 million) in her ARKX fund, albeit not very much. In my opinion, the concept is solid. With the rise of Uber, helicopter use, and continued increase of traffic congestion in major cities, these companies have a chance. However, with so many companies vying for market share, major hurdles of regulatory approval and infrastructure development, there is a long horizon for these investments if you choose to hold.
Has anyone bought into any of these SPACs or are holding these companies for the long term?
Continuing with the EV trend, I am a huge fan of Lordstown Motors $RIDE, an electric truck producer out of Ohio. The company went public via the DPHC SPAC at the end of October. I wanted to post earlier today but didn’t have the time due to work. Up 30% today, $RIDE announced that they had over 100,000 preorders of their flagship model pickup truck so far, to begin deliveries around September 2021. Also, they recently announced a partnership with Camping World $CWH in which Camping World would allow $RIDE owners access to their roadside assistance as well as maintenance shops and technicians. Also, they plan on manufacturing the first electric RV together by 2022. With a market cap of only 4.5 billion, I can easily see this doubling by the end of 2021 as green technology continues to appear as the future in the Biden Administration.
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