What to watch for the week of 5/2/22.
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? Here’s a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be keeping an eye on and looking to trade for the week beginning May 2nd. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Let me know what you’ll be watching in the comments.

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Cruise Companies are still dealing with inflation issues
In the beginning of the month, $CCL reported that they had their busiest booking week in history. Meanwhile, throughout all industries, businesses are dealing with rising labor costs, higher fuel prices, and other things with rising costs.

The cruise industry is in a precarious spot. They can't easily pass on rising costs to customers. Even if they choose to raise the prices of alcoholic beverages and specialty dining options, customers can just choose to cut down on their consumption and opt for the free dining option that cruises offer.

Like airlines, cruise companies have options to hedge against rising fuel prices. $RCL already has theirs hedged, but for $CCL, they don't have any hedges.

One bright spot for Carnival is that they are leading the adoption of LNG-powered cruise ships, which run on cleaner-burning liquified natural gas. This helps Carnival obey the regulations of IMO 2020, which requires ships to run on cleaner-burning fuels. At the same time, LNG is cheaper than gasoline and the engines that run on LNG have fewer moving parts than engines that run on gasoline. However, the lack of fueling depots and the heavy capex spending that comes with adopting LNG-powered ships is expensive.

We shall see how well these cruise companies do amid high inflation and high bookings. Will consumers still consume like normal when they're on vacation?
Ian Gray's avatar
$25.4m follower assets
The Compounders' Cup 2021
The average underperformance of the tournament field is currently (44.9%).

What a difference a year makes!

Last December, I ran a tournament titled "Compounders' Cup 2021" where Twitter users voted on which company would have the best return in 2021.

$SE beat $TDOC in the final

Despite all of the baskets underperforming the market, picking $SEAS the champion was not a horrible choice.

The correct answer out of this field would have been $NETWITH 55 points of outperformance.

Click on the link below to read my recap:
Participants ranked in order of relative performance:

$NET 55.49%
$DAL 33.51%
$RBLX 19.48%
$TSLA 4.65%
$MAR -3.52%
$SHOP -4.26%
$TTD -9.47%
$SE -13.43%
$RCL -20.37%
$APPS -20.83%
$CRWD -26.29%
$LUV -34.05%
$OKTA -34.35%
$PLTR -43.60%
$SQ -46.79%
$OZON -47.55%
$MELI -50.36%
$ROKU -54.90%
$OPEN -57.46%
$FVRR -62.34%
$ZM -64.89%
$LSPD -65.16%
$PINS -68.13%
$FTHM -74.17%
$TDOC -74.68%
$FSLY -77.09%
$SKLZ -80.82%
$NNOX -82.93%
$BFLY -85.43%
$JMIA -91.13%
$ATY -92.15%
$PTON -96.40%
$OTRK -111.73%
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Passing on the costs
With worrisome prints from the CPI index I'm trying to think of companies best positioned to pass on additional costs to consumers.

  • Distributors should fare better than suppliers - I think of $FAST and grocery stores as consumers tend to shift toward store brands when prices get high -- Breakdown of discount grocer $GO can be seen here

  • Leaders in consolidated markets with steady or increasing demand - $SHW is a beneficiary of continued home renovations + infrastructure bill

  • $V and $MA take a cut of every transaction so they should at least track inflation
  • $GLD has to become in vogue at some point (right?!)

What companies may not be able to pass on the costs?

  • Auto manufactures are already dealing with supply chain issues/ labor wage issues/ chip shortages so a weaker consumer can't be good. Perhaps spending on vehicles shifts more towards the used car market and benefits the likes of $KMX or $CVNA
  • Cruise liners are dependent on discretionary spending from those with disposable income $CCL $RCL

I'm surely overlooking a lot of industries effected by a presumably weaker consumer. Some may say that a higher CPI print signals that the fed should raise rates but the combination of higher costs & higher rates surely disproportionately effects the poor who depend on financing.

A lot to unpack here but I'm interested to hear how others are positioning themselves for higher inflation. I'm also interested if anyone is in the camp that inflation is in fact transitory and how you're positioning yourself to fade the news.
Technology companies in particular should be able to pass on the costs because of the nature of the industry. Companies with strong competitive positioning should also fair well. In changing market dynamics, it is important to invest in high quality companies. I think $FB and $GOOGL are in particularly good spots for passing on costs.
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
Which earnings are you most excited about?

Monday, February 22nd
$API Agora
$PANW Palo Alto Networks
$RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
$ZI ZoomInfo

Tuesday, February 23rd
$VRSK Verisk Analytics
$CROX Crocs
$MCFE Mcafee
$HD Home Depot
$SQ Square
$PUBM PubMatic
$INTU Intuit
$SPT Sprout Social
$UPWK Upwork

Wednesday, February 24th
$BKNG Booking Holdings
$NVDA NVIDIA Corp
$CSPR Casper Sleep
$LOW Lowe's Companies
$ESTC Elastic
$TDOC Teladoc
$OSTK Overstock.com
$PSTG Pure Storage
$NTNX Nutanix
$JMIA Jumia

Thursday, February 25th
$ADT ADT Inc
$PLAN Anaplan
$ABNB Airbnb
$ADSK Autodesk
$BBY Best Buy Co
$BYND Beyond Meat
$NKLA Nikola Corporation
$CVNA Carvana
$KDP Keurig Dr Pepper
$DPZ Domino's Pizza
$ETSY Etsy
$ZS Zscaler
$WDAY Workday
$CRM Salesforce.com
$VMW VMware
$MRNA Moderna
$PLUG Plug Power

Friday, February 26th
$LAMR Lamar Advertising
$DKNG Draftkings

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
Which ones are you most excited about?

Monday, February 1st
$NTDOY Nintendo
$TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific

Tuesday, February 2nd
$AMZN Amazon
$GOOG Alphabet
$PFE Pfizer
$AMGN Amgen
$UPS United Parcel Service
$EA Electronic Arts
$CMG Chipotle
$RACE Ferrari
$BABA Alibaba
$MTCH Match Group
$FEYE FireEye

Wednesday, February 3rd
$SPOT Spotify
$EBAY eBay
$PYPL PayPal
$QCOM Qualcomm
$GRUB GrubHub
$ABBV AbbVie
$RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises

Thursday, February 4th
$SNAP Snap
$GILD Gilead Sciences
$ATVI Activision Blizzard
$UL Unilever
$ICE IntercontinentalExchange Group
$PTON Peloton
$PINS Pinterest
$WYNN Wynn Resorts
$U Unity Software
$MRK Merck

Friday, February 5th
$AON Aon
$EL Estee Lauder
$LAZ Lazard

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, August 10th
$DUK Duke Energy

$MELI MercadoLibre

$MAR Marriott

$RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises

$CGC Canopy Growth

Tuesday, August 11th

Softbank

Adidas

Rakuten

Wednesday, August 12th

Tencent

$CSCO Cisco

$LYFT Lyft

Thursday, August 13th

$AMAT Applied Materials

$BIDU Baidu

Friday, August 14th

$DKNG Draftkings

Note: this does not include all earnings and source is Business Insider + Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Some earnings this week:
Monday, July 20th
$IBM IBM

Tuesday, July 21st
$UAL United Airlines
$AMTD TD Ameritrade
$IBKR Interactive Brokers
$KO Coca-Cola
$UTX Raytheon
$LMT Lockheed Martin
$SNAP Snap
$PM Philip Morris

Wednesday, July 22nd
$SAVE Spirit Airlines
$PCG PG&E
$CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
$MSFT Microsoft
$TSLA Tesla
$WIX Wix.com

Thursday, July 23rd
$ALK Alaska Air Group
$AAL American Airlines Group
$LUV Southwest Airlines
$T AT&T
$RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
$TSCO Tractor Supply
$ETFC Etrade
$CTXS Citrix
$MAT Mattel
$TREE LendingTree
$VRSN Verisign
$TWTR Twitter

Friday, July 24th
$AXP Amex
$GT Goodyear
$VZ Verizon

Source: Yahoo Finance
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