Sachiv's avatar
$383.3k follower assets
Adtech legislation in progress
Below is a link to NY Posts article on adtech scrutiny of companies like $GOOG $GOOGL. In short, if you participate in buying and selling ads, AND have them displayed on your own properties on which you get user data, this law will force a breakup of some parts of that business.

⬆️ for $TTD $PUBM $MGNI and $ATY, although I’m only long $TTD

⬇️ for $GOOG and maybe $AMZN at some point???

FYI WSJ also has an article about this, but it’s behind a paywall.

ParrotStock's avatar
$244.4m follower assets
Ad Tech looks stable if not bullish
With the rest of the market missing expectations and giving poor guidance, Ad Tech (businesses) have so far been pretty stable.

Granted, stock prices have dipped with the rest of the market, but the businesses are still performing.

$MGNI reported EPS in line at $0.08, a 166% increase YoY; with sales coming in at $118M, beating the estimate of $107M by 10%, +95% YoY.

$TTD EPS of $0.21 beat the $0.15 estimate by 40%, a +50% YoY gain. Sales came in at $315M, beating the estimated $304M by 3%, a +43% YoY gain.

$PUBM, I don't own anymore, beat EPS estimate by nearly 200% coming in at $0.14. Sales and Q2 guide were in-line with estimates as well.

$CTV just missed the EPS estimate of ($0.05), coming in at ($0.06), however sales beat by 21%, coming in at $25.9M. They reported organic YoY revenue growth of 30%, and +40% revenue growth including their new acquisition of TV Squared. Losses are expected to narrow next Q, and FY'22 revenue is expected between $135-$140M.

$ZMDTF had a +183% YoY Q with revenue of $18.7M and FY'21 revenue of $52.6M, +107% YoY. They also finished the year with a positive EBITDA of $5.8M for FY'21. The company is guiding for a FY'22 revenue of $74M-$80M, approximately +50% YoY.

We're still waiting on reports dates from $APPS $MOBQ $MVVYF.

$KBNT is on the bubble from last Q., they report on May 16.

And the one I'm most anxious/excited about, AcuityAds $ATY, reports on May 12th. They also just got approval for a stock buyback plan. I'll be watching this one closely.

I'd like to consolidate some of these Ad Tech positions after earnings season is over, but so far I've been mostly pleased with the sectors results.

How are you guy's feeling about the Ad Tech sector over the next few Q's? 👇

🦜
I've seen some interesting buzz surrounding $TTD recently. Their earnings report was very strong, and their partnerships, especially with $WMT, could drive further growth
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I wrote about one of my favorite holdings (Pubmatic) and my view on yesterday's earnings report.

  • Revenue: $54.6M (meet)
  • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.14 (beat by .04)
  • Net dollar-based retention: 140%
  • 32.6 trillion impressions (+76% YoY)
  • 41% CTV growth
  • Guidance unchanged

Pubmatic results overall looked pretty good. I'm not surprised to see guidance unchanged, which is frankly a decent sign after seeing so many companies lower guidance. The investments in CTV seem to be paying off and I like the direction the company is taking as CTV is growing so quickly. The financials continue to be very strong so everything looks on track to me. Will be adding some as the market conditions stabilize a bit.

$SWAV $PUBM $UPST Earnings: What I'm Looking For
ShockWave Medical, Inc. ($SWAV) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
ShockWave has increased revenue by 13,696% from 2017 to 2021. And if you think it's cheating since revenue in 2017 was just $1.7MM, fine. They did, however, increase revenue from 2020 to 2021 by 250% up to $237.1MM. Their IVL treatment has taken off.

Look at what they've done so far. Those margins movements are making me swoon.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • 250% revenue growth can't be expected for FY 2022 but Q1'21 was just $31.9MM. If management is going to hit their $415MM guidance for the year, Q1'22 should be revenue growth of at least 200% ($95.7MM).
  • GPM >80%. Keep that margin trending upward.
  • Free cash flow positive.
  • Just curious to see how the revenue by geography breaks down, Europe in particular, who accounted for just 16.3% of 2021 revenue.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 30th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.70 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (40.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (27.5%)

PubMatic, Inc. ($PUBM) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Looking for a beat on revenue guidance ($54MM at the midpoint).
  • NRR needs to remain strong. 140% would be a slowdown but still a really good number.
  • Ad impressions >32.4T
  • CTV/OTT publisher count >195

Current position:
Total cost basis: 51st highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.27 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (16.2%)
Annualized $SPY return: (16.9%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (31.7%)

Upstart Holdings, Inc. ($UPST) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/9)
Their growth was outrageous in 2021. Can it sustain? Is 3.72 forward sales cheap or expensive? I'd argue cheap. I hope I'm right.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Management seems to sandbag guidance every quarter. They've beaten their own midpoint guidance by nearly 15% on average the past 4 Qs. They're guiding for $300MM at the midpoint in Q1, which is $4MM below where Q4. I'm looking for at least $340MM.
  • I'm not concerned with Upstart becoming profitable yet. I'd rather they work on gaining market share. However, 2021 was a big drop in net income. Their balance sheet is good but not great. Keep increasing FCF or scale back net losses.
  • Conversion rate and contribution margins will be key. Also, some internet sleuths noticed they updated their About page to say 74% of loans have been fully automated through 12/31/21. However, their recent 10-K had that number at 69% for 2021. Very curious to see what their Q1 % is.
  • Concentration risk needs to keep decreasing. This one is important. Cross River Bank was a record low 55% of all loans originated (previously 67% in 2020 and 89% in 2019) and 56% of revenue (63% and 80%, respectively). However, 55%/56% is still quite high. A second bank has actually increased as CRB decreased. Bank Unknown went from 24% of loans in 2020 to 36% in 2021 and 18% of revenue to 27%. I really want to see CRB decrease without any/a substantial increase to this other bank.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.73 years
Number of purchases since: 3
Annualized return: (63.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (14.7%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (28.8%)
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EOW Update: 05/06/22
No New Adds.

Bought to cover $FSLY at $16.77 - 7% gain. I never hold trades through earnings.

Bought to cover $PUBM at $23.00 - very small gain. Trade got too choppy for me.

Sold Cash Secured Put: May 9th $SPY 395p at $4.05 - up 95% currently.

98% cash.
Conor's avatar
$2.4m follower assets
Selling Covered Puts
I bought covered puts in $BABA and $PUBM today with my excess cash. It's a great time to buy covered puts in my opinon on stocks that you wouldn't mind owning if your options got assigned.
I bought 10% below current share price and about a month out of expiry
Add a comment…
End of Week Trading Update
Added $TMUS short sell: $132.01 - day trade - bought to cover at $130.62 for 1% gain.
Bought to cover $NIO short sell at $18.00 - 3% gain.
Bought to cover $CCL short sell at $18.00 - 2% gain.
Still holding $FSLY and $PUBM short sells over the weekend.
$FSLY Entry: $18.32
$PUBM Entry: $23.20
88% cash.
Ending this month up 8.58% 🎉
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LT's avatar
$2.6m follower assets
PUBM slower revenue growth but impressive FCF?
Majority of the reason $PUBM FCF was notably lower than OpCF was tied to front loading server upgrades for strategizing supply chain issues, and most 2022 increases will be OpEx not CapEx while EBITDA increases 10% YoY, I expect almost a doubling of FCF in 2022
LT's avatar
$2.6m follower assets
TTD vs PUBM
So many $TTD bulls love to clown on $PUBM bc it's a "commodity", even Buffet knows you can make money there

82 EV/OpCF
97 EV/FCF
OpCF -7% YoY

13 EV/OpCF
24 EV/FCF
OpCF +271% YoY
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