Refining Margins
  • Pretty spectacular pop in refining margins.
  • Permanent refinery closures since the start of 2019 reduced global capacity by around 4.7mn barrels per day, Barclays estimates, and new refinery capacity such as at Kuwait’s Al Zour can’t be brought quick enough. As a result, US and European refinery gross margins are least four times the long-run average
  • $PSX $VLO etc.
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Crack Spreads
Crack spreads measure the difference between crude oil as an input and heating oil as well as gasoline as outputs -- in other words: what do refiners pay for crude vs. what can they sell the products for.

The spread is trading at record highs, fueling the rally in refineries -- more here: https://www.bluelinefutures.com/insights/post/421/

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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 24-28th) - BIG week ahead!
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Definitely a very busy week ahead. Here's what I'll be looking at:

  • $MSFT - Can Azure keep its growth rate? Will a slowdown cause a sell-off similar to the one $NFLX had?
  • $TSLA - Post earnings reaction. This is one of the few high-growth stocks that has shown relative strength. Let's see if this changes post ER.
  • $LOGI - Is demand for gaming peripherals still strong? May be an early indicator of videogaming strength.
  • $AAPL - It's always interesting to hear what Apple is doing.
  • $V - Data on consumer spending.
  • $CVX - General comments on the energy market.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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ParrotStock's avatar
$257m follower assets
Preparing for 2022
We’re just a month away from 2022. Now’s the time many people start rebalancing and trying to figure out how to align their portfolio’s for the new year.

There’s a lot of talk about how interest rate hikes will affect growth, and if I plan to change my investment style. So this is my attempt to answer these questions, and what I “currently” plan to do going into the new year.

2020, The first style change

I first want to re-cap where I’ve been on my investment journey. You can get the full picture by reading my first newsletter: “An Introduction

I started out in February 2020 primarily focused on Index & ETF’s with a few large caps added to the mix. Over a few months after the March ‘20 crash, I rotated out of those index and ETF’s and into individual names to take advantage of the historic post-crash bull market.

Whether smart or lucky, that strategy paid off well. I assumed, and have stated before, that when I saw a shift in the market I would change my investment style to match…

2021 A year of learning

In 2021, I failed to recognize the extreme valuation’s and looming correction we would get in February ‘21, and basically rode the market up… and back down. I recovered from the low’s of 2021, but have not seen the high’s of February '21 since.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see the extreme valuations, and how obvious it was I should have trimmed/sold more near the top. As good as 2020 was, it also ingrained some very bad habits.

Through that experience I learned to trade options, first as a potential hedging strategy, then as a supplement to my long term investments. This added both tools to the toolbox, and also gave me an outlet for the “need to do something”, while leaving my long term investments intact to compound over time.

Until last weeks sell-off, I’d been able to tread water with an average year (roughly +10%) despite having huge drawdowns in many of my larger holdings; including $MGNI from the $60’s to under $20. After last week, I’ve dropped to a slightly negative return on the year.

Rotating back to index’s in February would have paid off much more in the short term, but I believe staying the course with my conviction holdings and learning a new skill (options) will benefit me more in the long run.

Outlook for 2022?

Now the million dollar question… What’s in store for 2022?

I think we’ve already seen some of it:

  • Multiple contraction
  • Inflation
  • Tighter monetary policy
  • Interest rate hikes
  • Return to work
  • Return to travel
  • Increase in fossil fuel demand

So what does it all mean for the market?

We’ve already seen multiple contraction in small/mid cap names, I think we see a similar contraction in larger cap names as well; either due to lower prices or higher revenue’s. We got a big taste of that last week.

Is inflation transitory? Some of it is, caused by lack of workforce participation and other supply chain issues. Some of it is here to stay, due to higher wages and fuel costs.

Tighter monetary policy? Whether you believe in the underlying companies or not, there is no doubt the run up in speculative assets has been due to the unprecedented liquidity in the market. All that “free” money has to go somewhere, along with growth stocks a lot of it flowed into crypto, NFT’s, and meme stocks. Less liquidity will likely see a correction in these type’s of assets.

Rate hikes are going to make the cost of capital more expensive, whether that’s funding a new business, buying a new home, or servicing existing debt. With home price’s at record highs, interest rate hikes could dampen home sales (although there might be a rush before the rate hikes).

Return to work has already started, there are many positions that won’t ever go back, but in general we should see more face to face interactions. How is that going to affect WFH stocks next year? But more importantly, what stocks will benefit?

Return to travel has picked up as well, but we are no where near peak travel. With each Covid variant we will continue to get volatility in the sector. Who’s going to benefit?

Despite the popular theme of ridding the world of fossil fuel, it’s not going anywhere, and demand will only pick up in 2022. Without fossil fuel you would be naked, hungry, and afraid. Work from the office, travel, and current administration policies will only increase demand and reduce supply in 2022.

The Plan for 2022

I expect to see more pain in the short term, but believe patience will pay over the long haul.

I’m re-evaluating my positions to be very selective in holding companies who are not profitable. Especially small & mid Cap companies.

I’ll be looking to add to my growth companies as their multiples contract. Revenue growth and profitability will be rewarded… eventually.

I’m not going to overthink my “market disruptor” positions, and will accept they could remain beaten down for the majority of 2022. This includes companies such as $NNOX & $LMND.

I will try and catch the prevailing trends with my allocation for trading.

Some noteworthy trends I’ll be watching:

Travel: I have a position in $ABNB that I expect to do well, and I could see $MAR & $CCL catching bids in 2022 among others.

Advertising: As supply chain issues resolve, and travel opens up, I expect advertising to pick up with it. Even if the economy is suppressed in 2022 due to inflation & interest rates, if businesses have merchandise, they will be vying to sell it to you. $TTD, $MGNI, $ROKU, $ATY, $CTV, $ZMDTF, $EGLX, $PUBM, $APPS and many more should do well.
  • According to the WSJ today 12/6/21, global advertising will increase by 22.5% to $763.2 billion this year (excluding political ad spend). That’s up from a 19.2% expected growth rate in June, and only 12% expected last December. The growth rate is accelerating faster than expected.

Fossil Fuels: I’ve already traded $OKE & $RRC this fall for natural gas & propane. I think refiners could get a boost in 2022. $XOM & $PSX are solid options to keep an eye on.

An interest rate increase may bring banks back into the spotlight. I’m leaning more towards staying with alternative investments in this area such as Fin Tech names $SQ, $SOFI, & $UPST for now, but banks should do well.

I’ll be staying away from housing and work from home names such as $ZM, $UPWK, $FVRR, $DOCU etc. for now. Although they may all be great long term investments, I could see some short term pain in 2022. I’ll also be cautious adding anything with a high sales multiple like $NET & $SNOW.

Summary

In short, I don’t expect to make any wholesale style changes like I did in 2020 unless something fundamentally changes in my life (I lose the time I have available now to dedicate to trading/investing).

The market is likely to do what is least expected. Everyone expected a Christmas rally, and then a pullback in early 2022. So naturally we got an early pullback instead of a rally. We are now hearing everyone scream the crash is here, and it’s going to get much worse. Maybe… or maybe we rally instead. No one really knows for sure.

Traders are sitting on the sidelines looking for market direction, young investors are dollar cost averaging into great companies, and many long term investors are just sitting tight knowing over time the market will recover.

I expect to see more red days ahead, but I know I’m not smart enough to time the market (especially with how it’s been acting in 2021). Maybe the downside of 2022 is getting priced in as we speak, and we will continue our bull run, or maybe we are in for another 35% correction (I’ve been through 2 in 18 months, and honestly getting close again). Either way, I’m investing in companies I believe in long term, and I’m going to do my best to continue holding them through the volatility until the thesis changes.
And the thesis will change on some of them. I’ll lose money on some and take profits on others. It’s the nature of the game.

If you can weather the volatility, I still believe growth is the best long term strategy, but there is something to be said for having those stable slow & steady growers in your portfolio as well. There may come a time where I decide to add more of them back into mine. For now, I’m going to ride this out like I have the other corrections, and continue to position myself for what I believe to be winners in 2022 and beyond.

You can find the full newsletter here: "Stock Squawk: Preparing for 2022"

I look forward to hearing what you guy's have planned for 2022 in the comments. Where do you think we're going? How are you positioning? 👇

🦜
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Some really great thoughts here Parrot! This current pullback/correction/whatever has made me think about if being so aggressively into growth stocks is really the right thing for me. For now, I will be patient, but going into 2022 I will start slowly going back into some ETFs and index funds to get some stability back. And then maybe do some crypto shorting (like your options), to “do something fun”.
Thanks for always inspiring. It’s definitely a fun “hobby” we have 😊
Add a comment…
Big Week Ahead! (Oct 25-29 Earnings Calendar)
Next week will probably be the most interesting week for the stock market this quarter. The largest companies in the world are all reporting and we'll get a lot of very valuable insights.

Here's what I'm interested in:
  • More context on the slowdown in ad spending from $FB $GOOG and $TWTR. Let's see if these companies are experiencing similar issues to the ones $SNAP mentioned yesterday.
  • Comments on the global supply chain issues from $KMB $MMM $GLW $LOGI and others.
  • A general update from $AMD $TDOC $SHOP and$AMZN.
  • Perspectives on the energy market from $XOM $CVX

Comment below what earnings call you're looking forward to!

Remember you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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THU

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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$272.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞 Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, April 26th
$RRC Range Resources
$TSLA Tesla
$MSTR Microstrategy

Tuesday, April 27th
$MMM 3M
$GOOGL Alphabet
$AMGN Amgen
$SYK Stryker
$GE General Electric
$CROX Crocs
$CB Chubb
$SHW Sherwin-Williams
$SBUX Starbucks
$MSFT Microsoft
$COF Capital One
$FISV Fiserv
$FEYE FireEye
$HAS Hasbro
$V Visa
$WM Waste Management
$PINS Pinterest
$AMD Advanced Micro Devices

Wednesday, April 28th
$AFL Aflac
$ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
$SWK Stanley Black & Decker
$BA Boeing
$AAPL Apple
$F Ford
$CAKE Cheesecake Factory
$LC Lending Club
$EBAY eBay
$FB Facebook
$TDOC Teladoc
$NOW ServiceNow
$SPOT Spotify
$SHOP Shopify

Thursday, April 29th
$AMZN Amazon
$TEAM Atlassian
$AMT American Tower
$ETH Ethan Allen Interiors
$BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb
$TAP Molson Coors Beverage Co
$HSY Hershey
$PCG PG&E
$CHD Church & Dwight
$MCD McDonald's
$KHC Kraft Heinz
$NOC Northrop Grumman
$CG Carlyle Group
$DPZ Domino's Pizza
$FIVN Five9
$TROW T Rowe Price
$ZEN Zendesk
$TWTR Twitter

Friday, April 30th
$PSX Phillips 66
$ABBV Abbvie
$XOM Exxon Mobil
$CLX Clorox
$CVX Chevron

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$272.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞 Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, January 25th
$SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro

Tuesday, January 26th
$MSFT Microsoft
$JNJ Johnson & Johnson
$VZ Verizon
$SBUX Starbucks
$AMD Advanced Micro Devices
$AXP American Express
$MMM 3M
$GE General Electric
$LMT Lockheed Martin

Wednesday, January 27th
$AAPL Apple
$TSLA Tesla
$FB Facebook
$BA Boeing
$SYK Stryker
$BX Blackstone
$LEVI Levi Strauss
$VFC VF Corp

Thursday, January 28th
$V Visa
$MA MasterCard
$CMCSA Comcast
$MCD McDonald's
$MO Altria
$TEAM Atlassian
$WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance
$LUV Southwest Airlines
$JNPR Juniper Networks
$NOC Northrop Grumman
Friday, January 29th
$PSX Phillips 66
$CHD Church & Dwight
$CAT Caterpillar
$CVX Chevron

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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