What to watch for the week beginning May 9th
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be watching. Hopefully this graphic can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Good luck everyone! $SPY $PTON $DIS $QQQ $AMC $POSH $COIN $AFRM
post media
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.5m follower assets
Brief news 13/4/22
$AFRM announced yesterday an expansion of their partnership with $POSH.

$ADBE introduced frame.io, their cloud-based video collaboration software used by well-known names such as $NFLX, $GOOGL, $FOX, Vice, BuzzFeed, and many more to Creative Cloud subscription. Adobe has also made an improvements to Premiere Pro and After Effects - notably added native M1 support.

$ADSK announced Evans General Contractors - an international design-build contracting firm has adopted Autodesk's Construction Cloud to enhance project delivery and maximize team coordination.

$GOOGL's CEO Sundar Pichai today announced their plans to invest over $9B in America this year, mainly consisting of offices and datacenter investments. By the end of this year, they expect to create an additional 12k full-time jobs at Google.

$MDB announced the launch of a pay-as-you-go MongoDB Atlas offering on Google Cloud.

$PYPL announced departure of their CFO John Rainey, he's leaving the company to work for Walmart as their CFO. He'll remain at PayPal until late May.

$QCOM announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0,75 payable on June 23rd to stockholders who own the stock at the close of June 2nd.

$SHOP joined Stripe, $GOOGL, $FB and McKinsey Sustainability to launch $925M advance market commitment - Frontier is a 9 year commitment to accelerate the development of permanent carbon removal tech by guaranteeing future demand. They've even released a short video with an explanation of what Frontier is:


$TDOC a telemedicine center based solely on Teladoc's technology was open in Madurai, India

$ZM introduced Zoom IQ for Sales - a conversation intelligence add-on for Zoom Meetings that turns customer interactions into meaningful and actionable insights, helping teams across marketing, sales, and competitive intelligence improve crucial interactions with customers. They also made some improvements to Events & Webinars in order to better presenter's experience.
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 21st-25th)
Two heavy-hitters reporting next week: Nike and Adobe. Really interested in seeing what Nike has to say about supply chains after the recent events. Carnival Cruise and Nio should also be interesting. Full list of companies below.

MON:


TUE:


WED:


THU:


FRI:
post media
February earnings
I think upcoming earnings are going to be really important in this volatile market. Companies will likely get punished (further) on even slightly bad results or outlook, and I'm hopeful strong earnings like we saw with $TEAM or $AAPL will buoy the overall market or at least software sector that I'm playing close attention to.

Personally, I have a handful of companies on my buy list including $CRM, $COUP, $ESTC, $SMAR, $POSH, but will only do so once they make it past earnings either scathed (lower price) or unscathed (peace of mind) :)

So we've put together our most anticipated earnings for all of Feb!


Keep an eye out!
3: $AMZN $LLY $MRK $TNX
21: $UIS
28: $JLL TGNA $LAZR $SAIL
post media
sam stribling's avatar
$98.9m follower assets
Happy Wife, Happy Life! (Hopefully? 😁)
I started a small position in $POSH because my wife was using it and told me she loves it. I am always looking for an angle and one trick I have learned in the past is to listen to the women in your life. Women control on average 80% of household spend so when it comes to consumer discretionary they are a great source of information! Couple this with the fact that Wall St. / traders / investors are all male dominated. This asymmetry can be extremely useful if you just recognize it! My thought process is that the male traders will not recognize the trend as quickly as my wife will and that’s where the money could be made.

What I like about this trade is that the company’s market cap is tiny, only $1.3B. It is at a 52 week low of ~$17.00 with a high of $105 so I feel like I’m buying off the floor.

I admittedly have some home work to do before I determine if this will be a trade or if it is a company worth holding and investing in. I would love to know what the Commonstock community thinks of $POSH and if anyone has tried similar strategies like this and had success!
Socially Responsible Investing
If it costs more to be a socially and environmentally conscious company, what’s a fair return on investment?
5, 6, 7%?
I know this depends on individual needs too.
There are some investments I’d be happy with a 5% return on, if profits were secondary to ethical decisions.
This is me looking into $POSH and $BIRD
I don’t think they’re great businesses or great values but I’m interested in investing in them bc their B Corp status and their sustainable business models. I wouldn’t be interested if I thought they were crap companies either. I’m not looking to lose money in them. As an exercise in thinking about socially responsible investing, if it costs more or profits less for the company, obviously, it follows that investment returns will be lower.
One interesting way I think this could impact valuations though is if you have a large enough block of investors with this mindset, you’ll have higher valuations and multiples on these companies because of the different set of reasons and expectations for an investment in the companies. I don’t care and other investors don’t care if it’s overpriced by standard valuations that could diminish future returns because the expected return is already lower and there’s more emphasis on how the company is responsible rather than exceedingly profitable. With the caveat being of course that the company is a well run business overall.
Bought some $PLBY and $POSH
Picked up some $PLBY and $POSH today. @investmenttalk has done a great job explaining the $PLBY. IMO nice steady cash cow in licensing + high growth in eCommerce tx to iconic brand + optionality of OnlyFans alternative.

$POSH is around $1.2B in market cap with around $600M cash. Assuming that's right (please correct me if wrong) that's EV of $600M for $200Mish gross margin business that's nicely growing and has cultural tailwinds of sustainability and economic tailwinds of 'cheap'.

Just nibbling though. Will study at least 1 more earnings call in detail before initiating a larger position.
Why bother getting excited by IPOs?
Currently there are a ton of companies that could be placed into the busted IPO or busted SPAC bucket. It appears that a lot of these companies are consumer facing in some sense whereby retail investors may have felt comfortable investing in products or services they know.

There are a number of companies who's opening price is their 52W high & the charts are just gross:

$POSH $VMEO $LZ (examples)

While there are success stories of buying great companies on their IPO I would say that's the exception, not the norm. When companies go public there seems to be a scarcity mindset among investors where everyone is rushing to get into the IPO.

Are people trying to front run institutional investors?
Is it just the allure of a shinny new object?
Do you want to get in on the 'ground floor' of the stock?
Does the IPO pop serve as confirming evidence that this will be a good investment? (price drives narrative)

We know insiders will be selling shares after the lockup period ends and we have limited financial data to view as the company has yet to publicly report earnings. I believe retail investors should always assume they are the sucker at the poker table until proven otherwise and the poor performance of IPO's may be a good reminder to curb your enthusiasm.
Who doesn't like the idea of getting on the ground floor of the next big thing? SPACs seemed to disrupt the IPO process, which had been exclusive to institutional investors who get the best entry points and I admit I was smitten by Chamath and bought and still hold speculative positions in $IPOD $IPOE $IPOF. I think now that we're a bit on the other side of all that SPAC craziness these are going to get much more scrutiny from everybody and for my part I suppose it was an exercise I had to go through. My takeaway is that the IPO process remains ripe for disruption, companies are coming to the public markets later and later, and investors are hungry for early opportunities.
View 2 more comments
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.