Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Fincredible MacroTalk: Macroeconomic Insights
Last week, the Atlanta FED released their latest projections for the Q1'22 GDP growth: +0.1%. This would mark a big deceleration in GDP growth, and represents a stark contrast to the views presented by bank executives during their latest earnings calls.

The Fincredible MacroTalk goes over bank executives' views on macro aspects like GDP growth, consumer spending and balance sheet, and more. Here are four quotes that seem to indicate the U.S. economy is in great shape.

GDP Growth:
Credit & Debit Card Spend:
Consumer Balance Sheet:
Loan Growth:

If you'd like to read the whole post, here's the link:


Quotes from $WFC $BAC $PNC $JPM $C $BK
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 17-21th)
Hey guys! Here's next week's upcoming earnings calendar!

The most important thing I'm interested in is if there's a change of character relative to the past earnings season. Growth stocks got hammered last time. Hopefully this quarter the worst has been priced in and companies are evaluated on their actual results.

Some other things I'm interested in:
  • $PG - Are sales numbers still strong? Has supply chain inflation persisted?
  • $NFLX - Streaming trends over the past quarter. (I hold $ROKU and a bit of $FUBO)
  • $UAL and $AAL - Comments on the Omicron variant and corporate travel demand.
  • $PNC $BAC $KEY - Insights on the economy. December retail sales were down, so we'll see if banks also point to weak consumers.

What are you guys interested in?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

TUE:
WED:
THU:
FRI:
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Macro Insights from Bank Earnings Calls
The latest Fincredible MacroTalk covers several very interesting quotes from bank earnings calls on the current macroeconomic conditions. Here are the quotes I found most relevant:
  • $GS take on the US economy: "There are a number of emerging areas of uncertainty we're paying close attention to: first, the trajectory of inflation, particularly wage inflation in the short term. Second, there remains significant uncertainty around the Delta variant. Third, there's ongoing political debate in the U.S. over economic policy, including the potential for additional infrastructure deals, the longer-term extension of the federal debt ceiling and tax increases. And fourth, the U.S.-China relationship remains complicated. Taken together, these items have the potential to be a headwind to growth."

  • $JPM on consumer spending: "Combined credit and debit spend was up 24% versus the third quarter of '19 and in line with last quarter. Within that data, travel and entertainment spend was up 8% versus 3Q '19 and very closely track the patterns of the Delta variant within the quarter, softening in August and early September and reaccelerating in recent weeks."

  • $C on the health of the US consumer: "Consumer balance sheets remain unusually strong on the back of the increasing consumer net worth during the pandemic.

  • $MS on FED tapering and rates: "We do expect the Federal Reserve will begin tapering soon, and that will be followed by increasing rates in 2022."

  • More on rates from $WFC: "And so I think if you look at what's happening in inflation and with tapering coming and we still think that there's more risk to upside on rates than there is downside at this point. And so we're still being patient as we sort of look at our redeployment there.

Heading into the end of the year, it's clear the US consumer is still in a very strong position, which should bode well for the overall market ( $SPY $IWM ), particularly consumer goods companies not facing significant supply chain issues. However, there are several potential headwinds like rate hikes and geopolitical tensions that could dampen the mood.

If you'd like more insights, here's the full post Fincredible MacroTalk October 20: Macroeconomic Insights

Quotes from $GS $JPM $C $WFC $PNC $USB $MS $BK
Interesting that Morgan Stanley went out and stated they expect the Fed to increase rates in 2022. That would be a bit earlier than what the Fed has signaled (2023)
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$23.3m follower assets
Earnings Season Is Upon Us! (Oct 11-15 Calendar)
Earnings season starts next week, and there are several very intriguing earnings calls happening. Here's what I'm interested in:

  • Perspectives and forecasts on the US economy from major banks $JPM $GS $WFC $BAC $C $MS $PNC
  • An update on the semiconductor shortage from $TSM and their outlook for 2022 and beyond. Major clients of the company include $AAPL $AMD $NVDA $QCOM $TSLA
  • More context on the US air-travel recovery from $DAL, particularly on business travel.
  • General update from $DPZ. Although I've never owned the company, their turnaround and continued growth always amaze me.

Comment below what earnings call you're looking forward to next week!

Remember you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

TUE

WED

THU

FRI
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$283.9m follower assets
Earnings this week
๐Ÿ“žWhich calls are you most excited about?

Monday, July 12th
None of Interest

Tuesday, July 13th
$FRC First Republic Bank
$JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
$GS Goldman Sachs Group
$PEP PepsiCo

Wednesday, July 14th
$DAL Delta Air Lines
$BAC Bank of America
$BLK BlackRock
$C Citigroup
$WFC Wells Fargo
$SCHW Charles Schwab
$PNC PNC Financial

Thursday, July 15th
$AA Alcoa
$PGR Progressive
$UNH UnitedHealth Group
$MS Morgan Stanley

Friday, July 16th
$STT State Street

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Will be cool to see banks guidance for coming quarter, also to see how Delta has been doing with Covid easing
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$283.9m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, January 11th
$CCL Carnival Corp

Tuesday, January 12th
None of interest

Wednesday, January 13th
None of interest

Thursday, January 14th
$BLK BlackRock
$FRC Republic Bank
$DAL Air Lines
$SCHW Charles Schwab

Friday, January 15th
$JPM JPMorgan Chase
$C Citigroup
$WFC Wells Fargo
$PNC Financial Services

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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