Leandro's avatar
$114m follower assets
Giverny Capital Asset Management Highlights
I read Giverny Capital Asset Management's Q1 shareholder letter over the weekend and some quotes were pretty interesting. First, let me give a bit of context on GCAM.

GCAM is a partnership between Canadian investment firm "Giverny Capital" and David Poppe. David Poppe was President and CEO of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, a RIA that's best known for managing Sequoia fund. GCAM is fairly new as it started in April 1st 2020. Since inception, the company has managed to provide nice returns (32.2% net) although it has not managed to beat the S&P 500 (34.5%). However, the team's prior track record is one of outperformance.

The company tries to invest in high quality companies where founders have significant stakes (of course, this isn't always possible)

Here's a list of GCAM's top 10:

$GOOG 9.1%
$ANET 6.5%
$PGR 6%
$SCHW 5.9%
$KMX 5.9%
$CSU.TO 5.6%
$SSNC 4.7%
$HEI 4.6%
$BRK.B 4.4%
$CACC 4.3%

Let's go with some of the quotes now!

On Q1's performance:

It was a rough quarter. I don't say that because stock prices declined. That happens. Volatility, after all, is what creates occasional dislocations in the market that allow long-term investors to buy great companies at attractive prices.

On commodities or energy cos:

GCAM doesn't own any energy or materials stocks. That's intentional. About 15 years ago, I did a fair amount of work on the emerging Canadian oil sands companies. I learned three lessons from this project that inform my investing at GCAM. First, never bet on any kind of Malthusian thesis about scarcity, as this is essentially a bet against human ingenuity. Second, no one in the oil industry knows what the price of oil will be in a year. Thus, oil companies spend tends of billions of dollars on capital investments with limited visibility into what the future return will be.Third, oil companies are like derivative securities: their success or failure depends more on the price of an underlying asset than it does on their management teams. Are these companies all run by subpar management teams? Of course not. But they are all ultimately hostage to the oil price.

On predictability of returns on capital and management:

What I am trying to do at GCAM is align with fantastic managers who control their own destiny. Or at a minimum, have more control of their own destiny. I would much rather invest in a business that earns predictably high returns and has a clear growth trajectory than in a business that could earn a superior return if a commodity price remains elevated.

My crystal ball is not better than anyone else's but I'd rather invest in obvious structural growers than probable structural decliners.

On Fed's actions:

The Federal Reserve seems reluctant to do its job, but it is clear that interest rates are going to have to rise at a a much faster rate to tame inflation. The next year or two likely will be bumpy.

On the worst performers of the portfolio:

If there is any good news, I don't believe this group suffered material impairments to their long-term earnings trajectory. Rather, relatively small earnings misses or reductions to ST guidance led to large stock declines.

On $FB spend on RL:

I can't say yet that these investments will pay off, but sales of Meta's Oculus headsets are healthy and reviews are enthusiastic. I feel certain that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg won't continue to spend so heavily on R&D if it produces no results.

On $FB health on ad market:

I've heard comments from two large advertising agencies recently that their budgets for Meta Platforms' properties are growing by double digit percentages this year, a signal that Meta remains an important advertising vehicle.

Roughly 2.8 billion people log onto a Meta-owned social media site everyday, and they stay for a while. That makes Meta the best advertising vehicle in the digital world.

On $FIVE:

Five Below arguably has the strongest growth profile in bricks-and-mortar retail and the stock is more reasonably priced after the recent correction. We're very confident in this business and expect to own it for a long time.

On $AMZN's vs $FB's capital spend (controversial):

Owning lots of airplanes to support a marginally profitable retail business does not seem as promising to me as trying to build the metaverse.

On portfolio management:

I don't like owning 1% positions as they consume research time and don't add much value to the portfolio when they do well.

On selling Topicus $TOITF:

It was less than 1% in our portfolio and not very liquid, partly because Constellation continues to own 60%. The company had a great first year, trading at a premium to its parent. We didn't think it was more valuable than $CSU.TO so we sold it.

On volatility going forward:

Given the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, supply shortages and the expectation of sizable rate hikes by the Fed, I expect volatility to continue.

On timing the market:

The war in Ukraine is deeply disturbing, but market timing does not work and geopolitical events rarely create lasting market impacts. In any case, the best defense against economic uncertainty is to own high-quality, productive assets.
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Sachiv's avatar
$421.1k follower assets
Honest management @ $BRK.A and $TSLA insurance
While reading the cnbc blog of the $BRK.A $BRK.B AGM, I read a quote from Ajit Jain, the vice-chairman, “there’s no question that recently $PGR has done a much better job than Geico…both in terms of margin and in terms of growth….the biggest culprit as far as Geico is concerned…is telematics”
  1. He points out clear, honest takeaways of one of their well known earners… and gives shareholders a direction they know they need to head - not all management are so honest and forthcoming in public
  1. He points out something that #tesla has been working on since it’s early AP days - and why it’s using sensors and video cameras (and neural nets & vector mapping) vs LIDAR (sorry $INTC and $QCOM..!) - Tesla’s AP safety rating currently used to see if you qualify for self driving beta can Be (and probably already is) used easily for insurance ratings and pricing… add to that the fact that $TSLA continues to expand geographies in which it offers car insurance every few months, and it could be a very large income stream in the next 3 years. Could they offer their telematics systems out to other manufacturers as a black box? Maybe…🤷🏾‍♂️🌟
Note re transparency - Tesla shows you your safety rating…unlike regular insurance companies who just send you a price quote!
Thoughts? Am I way off here? Is there still a lot of growth not priced in today?
Disc: Long both BRK and TSLA
What to watch for the week of 4/11/22
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a graphic that I created of some of the most anticipated potential catalysts for the week beginning April 11th. Hopefully this can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save this post for reference. Let me know what’s on your watchlist in the comments. Follow my page so that you never miss any upcoming scheduled market events. If you find this helpful and would like to view more of my work, consider subscribing to my Patreon. Link in my bio. $SPY $F $WFC $QQQ $ALLY $BBBY $KMX $PGR $C $GS $MS $JPM
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Jan 24-28th) - BIG week ahead!
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Definitely a very busy week ahead. Here's what I'll be looking at:

  • $MSFT - Can Azure keep its growth rate? Will a slowdown cause a sell-off similar to the one $NFLX had?
  • $TSLA - Post earnings reaction. This is one of the few high-growth stocks that has shown relative strength. Let's see if this changes post ER.
  • $LOGI - Is demand for gaming peripherals still strong? May be an early indicator of videogaming strength.
  • $AAPL - It's always interesting to hear what Apple is doing.
  • $V - Data on consumer spending.
  • $CVX - General comments on the energy market.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:

TUE:

WED:

THU:

FRI:
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Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (Nov 1-5)
Hey guys! Here's next week's earnings calendar! Several very interesting companies set to report earnings. Here's the one's I'm most excited about and why:

  • $APPS: any sign of iOS ad dollars shifting to android (Digital Turbine's revenues are mostly from android).
  • $Z: an update on the real estate market and iBuying
  • $LYFT and $UBER: is mobility in the US back to pre-pandemic levels?
  • $COIN metrics on the NFT market.
  • $PENN and $DKNG update on the mobile sports betting market.
  • $ATVI number of Call of Duty Warzone players. The last reported number was 100MM.
  • $CRSR: comments on the supply chain issues they're experiencing.
  • $MELI: update on the Brazilian e-commerce market. Relevant for $SE's expansion.
Comment below which earnings report you are looking forward to the most!
Friendly reminder: you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY


THURSDAY

FRIDAY
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

A lot of consumer discretionary companies are reporting. I'm interested to see how consumer spending habits last quarter affected different companies' performance.

Monday, August 16th
$CMCM Cheetah Mobile
$TME Tencent Music Entertainment

Tuesday, August 17th
$LZB La-Z-Boy
$HD Home Depot
$WMT Walmart

Wednesday, August 18th
$RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
$BBWI Bath & Body Works
$NVDA NVIDIA
$TGT Target
$PGR Progressive
$HOOD Robinhood Markets

Thursday, August 19th
$AMAT Applied Materials
$BJ BJ's Wholesale Club
$KSS Kohls Corp
$FTCH Farfetch
$M Macy's
$PDD Pinduoduo

Friday, August 20th
$DE Deere
$FL Foot Locker

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, August 2nd
$ZI ZoomInfo Technologies

Tuesday, August 3rd
$APRN Blue Apron
$BHG Bright Health Group
$NKLA Nikola
$CWH Camping World
$PGR Progressive
$COUR Coursera
$CRSR Corsair Gaming
$SKLZ Skillz

Wednesday, August 4th
$LMND Lemonade
$MVIS Microvision
$WYNN Wynn Resorts
$ROKU Roku

Thursday, August 5th
$HEAR Turtle Beach
$MNST Monster Beverage
$CFLT Confluent
$CWK Cushman & Wakefield
$DOCN DigitalOcean
$EB Eventbrite
$FSR Fisker
$FNKO Funko
$FVRR Fiverr
$SPCE Virgin Galactic
$FROG JFrog
$MRNA Moderna
$SQ Square

Friday, August 6th
$TWST Twist Biosciences
$CRON Cronos Group
$DKNG DraftKings

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
$SQ for me, one of my important investments, $ZI mainly because they are headquartered about a 5 minute walk from my apartment. Also because I've looked at this stock and wonder how well they will continue to do in the coming years.
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, July 12th
None of Interest

Tuesday, July 13th
$FRC First Republic Bank
$JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co
$GS Goldman Sachs Group
$PEP PepsiCo

Wednesday, July 14th
$DAL Delta Air Lines
$BAC Bank of America
$BLK BlackRock
$C Citigroup
$WFC Wells Fargo
$SCHW Charles Schwab
$PNC PNC Financial

Thursday, July 15th
$AA Alcoa
$PGR Progressive
$UNH UnitedHealth Group
$MS Morgan Stanley

Friday, July 16th
$STT State Street

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Will be cool to see banks guidance for coming quarter, also to see how Delta has been doing with Covid easing
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, June 14th
$JVA Coffee Holding Co
$MANU Manchester United

Tuesday, June 15th
$LZB La-Z-Boy
$HRB H&R Block
$ORCL Oracle

Wednesday, June 16th
$PGR Progressive

Thursday, June 17th
$ADBE Adobe
$SWBI Smith & Wesson
$KR Kroger
$JBL Jabil

Friday, June 18th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$266.8m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, March 15th
None of interest

Tuesday, March 16th
$CRWD Crowdstrike
$JBL Jabil
$FUTU Futu Holdings

Wednesday, March 17th
$FIVE Five Below
$PGR Progressive Corp
$MLHR Herman Miller
$PD PagerDuty
$WSM Williams-Sonoma

Thursday, March 18th
$ACN Accenture
$DG Dollar General
$FDX FedEx
$DLTH Duluth Holdings
$NKE Nike

Friday, March 19th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
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