Dividend Forecast - Week of 6/27
Good morning! Below are my expected dividends this week, and how they will be used.
​
Taxable
$SCHD - $0.70 per share, $1.43 total, reinvesting
$SCHF - $0.28 per share, $0.83 total, cash
$SCHB - $0.75 per share, $7.52 total, cash
$VTI - $0.75 per share, $7.52 total, cash
$VDE - $1.01 per share, $4.11 total, reinvesting
$BAM - $0.14 per share, $0.14 total, reinvesting
$PEP - $1.15 per share, $3.48 total, cash
$KO - $0.44 per share, $1.81 total, cash
$PPL - $0.23 per share, $4.11 total, cash
$CMA - $0.68 per share, $18.55 total, cash
Total - $41.98
​
Roth IRA
$VTI - $0.75 per share, $3.75 total, cash
$VNQ - $0.57 per share, $5.70 total, cash
Total - $9.45
​
Do you have any dividends coming in this week?
Cameron McFarlane's avatar
$9.5m follower assets
Current $QQQ exposure:
Apple $AAPL: 12.43%
Microsoft $MSFT: 10.72%
Amazon $AMZN: 6.25%
Tesla $TSLA: 4.16%
Alphabet Class C $GOOG: 3.97%
Alphabet Class A $GOOGL: 3.79%
NVIDIA $NVDA: 3.29%
Meta Platforms $META: 3.05%
PepsiCo $PEP: 2.08%
Broadcom $AVGO: 1.93%

YTD Returns: -30.02%
5Y Returns: +99.01%
Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
My May Returns Are In!... And They're Not Great (Still).
As I said in April, my horizon remains 20+ years out. I see my portfolio getting pummeled right now and generally don't care. I only see opportunity.

Retirement Portfolio
In May, I added to $ABNB, $BIPC, $CHWY, $CRM, $CRWD, $DDOG, $GLOB, $JPM, $MMM, $MPW, $O, $OKTA, $PEP, $PGNY, $PLD, $PUBM, $SHW, $SWAV, $TROW, $U, $UPST, and $ZS. I also added to $AAPL, $COST, $JPM, $O, $SBNY, and $SBUX via DRIP. I exited $SMG and $XYL.

May saw my retirement portfolio retreat by 6.86%, bringing my YTD fall to 37.36%, easily getting beat by $SPY, $QQQ, and $VTI.

I'm still learning this new investment software so my all-time performance below is only through the end of 2021.

It's safe to say QQQ is beating me by at least a couple hundred bps through May 31, 2022. I'm certainly still trouncing SPY though.

My Top 10 holdings by current market value make up ~34% of my portfolio.

Taxable Portfolio
My taxable brokerage is ~10% of my total investments. It's also much more speculative (early stage medtech is a big portion). In May, I added to $SILK, $BTC.X, and $ETH.X. Nothing in my taxable brokerage pays a dividend so no DRIP. I didn't exit anything either.

May saw my taxable portfolio retreat by 9.67%, bringing my YTD fall to 42.22%, easily getting beat by $SPY, $QQQ, and $VTI.

My taxable has gone through 3 different iterations over the past 13-ish years. You can see there was no holdings around 2013 and again around 2017 as I sold out of all positions for different life reasons. The beginning to 2013 iteration was the "I don't know what the fuck I'm doing, let me buy random companies I know with no research and pray" phase. Thankfully it was a bull market and I got lucky. The 2014 to 2017 iteration was "I nailed it last time. I'ma do that again but also play with options as well" phase. You can see how well that worked out.

This iteration is actual research with a what-can-this-company-be-in-a-decade being my main thought. This approach is why I don't mind seeing my this portfolio getting whooped. None of the positions in this portfolio are core holdings, which means I follow them quarter-by-quarter via 10-Q/K, press releases, general news, etc. I have my finger on the pulse and the underlying businesses are performing as I hoped or struggling by with bright spots (looking at you $DMTK, $LMND, and $BIGC).

(Note: I didn't lose almost all my money in 2015 but I can't figure out why the software is calculating it that way. 2015 was a bad year in the taxable portfolio but not that bad. Hopefully I have it corrected for my June update).

My Top 10 holdings by current market value make up ~90% of my portfolio.
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This Week's YouTube market update
Take a look at Left Brain's weekly market recap from over the weekend! We cover the profound weakness in retail stocks (both discretionary and staples), along with opportunities we are beginning to see in the bond market and some signs of bottoming in hypergrowth.


Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
1 of 10
401k Buys
They didn't all map over to Commonstock so here's a breakdown of my monthly 401k buys. I buy the same dollar amount of each once per month. This month equaled ~13% more to each total cost basis.

$BIPC - Added ~12% more shares
$CRM - Added ~20% more shares
$PEP - Added ~12% more shares
$O - Added ~13% more shares
$MMM - Added ~14% more shares
$SHW - Added ~14% more shares
$MPW - Added ~16% more shares
$PLD - Added ~16% more shares
$JPM - Added ~16% more shares
$TROW - Added ~18% more shares
Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
$96.9m follower assets
PepsiCo πŸ’Έ $1.15/share (+7% increase)
So blessed to be a shareholder of such an amazing company.
I am not a great consumer of $PEP products, but I am a loyal stock owner 😊
Yield 2.74%
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Luka πŸ¦‰'s avatar
$96.9m follower assets
Earning Presentations πŸ“Š
Last 2 weeks of Earning Presentations for the stocks in my portfolio.
Maybe some of you can be interested in πŸ‘‡

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ

Lockheed Martin $LMT


Procter & Gamble $PG

AT&T $T

Sonoco Products $SON

Genuine Parts Co. $GPC

Kimberly-Clark $KMB (report only)

Verizon $VZ (infographic)

Coca-Cola $KO (report only)


PepsiCo. $PEP (report only)

Archer Daniels Midland $ADM

3M $MMM

Kraft-Heinz $KHC

Microsoft $MSFT (ppt presentation)

Essex Property Trust $ESS (report only)

AvalonBay $AVB

The Southern Company $SO

Qualcomm $QCOM

Altria $MO

Intel $INTC

McDonald’s $MCD (report only)

Now without Fincredible, I need to do the dirty work myself 🀣
Earnings Dump, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales: Daily Contrarian, April 26
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are wobbling a bit ahead of a major day for earnings, with $MSFT and $GOOG among the headliners…

We’ve already had several reports already, most of them positive: $UPS $GE $PEP $DHI among them.

Read all about it here:

Portfolio Bracketology - $AAPL is the Champ!
Portfolio Bracketology has concluded and you have chosen $AAPL as your champ! $AAPL beat $VTI 21 - 16 in the final poll results (combined between Twitter and Commonstock poll).

Below is the final bracket:

The bracket was made up of all 55 of my active holdings - as verified here on @commonstock. Seeding was based on total return since initial acquisition date through 2/28/22. Final rankings are based on poll results - ranked in each round by initial seeding.

Here are final rankings of all 55 holdings based off the results of the bracket (Initial in Parentheses):

  1. $AAPL (3)
  2. $VTI (8)
  3. $O (21)
  4. $HD (42)
  5. $VDE (4)
  6. $BAM (11)
  7. $LOW (32)
  8. $TGT (47)
  9. $XLE (5)
  10. $ABBV (9)
  11. $SCHD (16)
  12. $KO (19)
  13. $VWO (20)
  14. $PFE (26)
  15. $SCHB (27)
  16. $PEP (31)
  17. $CMA (1)
  18. $CARR (2)
  19. $DD (6)
  20. $FUN (7)
  21. $RTX (10)
  22. $SCHF (15)
  23. $VEA (17)
  24. $MCD (24)
  25. $VNQ (28)
  26. $LEG (29)
  27. $SBUX (30)
  28. $HAS (40)
  29. $UL (43)
  30. $DIS (51)
  31. $COIN (52)
  32. $CTRE (53)
  33. $RVT (12)
  34. $VIG (13)
  35. $IEMG (14)
  36. $IEUR (18)
  37. $HASI (22)
  38. $PG (23)
  39. $CNA (25)
  40. $BUD (33)
  41. $CL (34)
  42. $HE (35)
  43. $TIPX (36)
  44. $VTEB (37)
  45. $PPL (38)
  46. $HSY (39)
  47. $CSX (41)
  48. $NSC (44)
  49. $LQD (45)
  50. $KMB (46)
  51. $BLV (48)
  52. $EMB (49)
  53. $T (50)
  54. $CRON (54)
  55. $CHWY (55)

Are there any surprises? Anything that stands out to you?

What are your overall thoughts on Portfolio Bracketology?

I had tons of fun putting this together and getting insight into people's perspective and thoughts on these companies holdings!
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That seems rad to me! I’ve never thought of putting your holdings head to head in a bracketed to-the-death tournament before! How do you determine the lineup to begin with?
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Q2 Portfolio Alignment
I do my best to stick to a routine cadence when it comes to investing. I have written about some of my methodology here, if you are interested.

Just like doing routine maintenance on your car, I do routine maintenance on my portfolio. The first weekend of each quarter I review my holdings and make updates to conviction ratings, reinvestment strategy and make any sales to trim positions. This routine alignment ensures I am on my intended path, but is also scheduled, so I don't go off the rails and make drastic changes on a whim.

Some of my rules for my portfolio alignment:

  • Sales - My rule is to trim overweight positions that I have held for 3+ years or sell positions that are <1% of my portfolio after 3+ years of holding.
  • Dividend Reinvestment - Reinvest dividends of S&P beaters in Taxable. Reinvest dividends of underweight holdings in Roth IRA.
  • Conviction Rating - Review each holding and record gut conviction (blind to previous rating)- either Low, Medium or High.

Taxable Brokerage

Sales:
None. $CMA and $VTI were candidates for me to sell, but I do not feel the need to trim these positions right now.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $ABBV - Medium to High
  • $BUD - Medium to Low
  • $T - Low to Medium
  • $COIN - Medium to High
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $MCD - High to Medium
  • $PEP - High to Medium
  • $PFE - High to Medium
  • $PG - High to Medium
  • $RTX - Medium to High
  • $RVT - Low to Medium
  • $SCHD - High to Medium
  • $UL - Medium to Low
  • $VIG - High to Medium

Roth IRA

Sales:
None. Could have trimmed $VWO and $VEA but didn't feel the need.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $HSY - Medium to High
  • $KMB - High to Medium
  • $VIG - High to Medium
  • $VNQ - High to Medium

Reviewing my Conviction changes in both accounts, I am definitely leaning more conservative in most areas.

What are your thoughts? Do you do any portfolio maintenance activities? Would love to hear!

Have a great Sunday!
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