Peek Behind the Numbers's avatar
$16.7m follower assets
Cutting Edge Tech at Absolutely No Cost to You
Given that the bulk of the value in tech is driven by research and development spending, we are baffled by the fact that accounting conventions and current reporting practices allow companies to effectively erase the bulk of R&D costs from their earnings. We explore the two main ways companies do this by taking a close look at the R&D spending of the major security software players including $OKTA, $NET, $PANW, $CRWD, $ZS, and $FTNT.

Wow, this is very informative, thanks for diving into these examples.

@aquiba would be proud of the forensic accounting chops on display here 🙌
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Markets Break a Winning Streak: Cause for Concern? Jarvis® Update August 26, 2022

After 4 straight weeks of positive action, we've seen a pullback in the market this week. We discuss the reasons for the selling and whether investors should be worried that the summer rally is coming to an end.

Director of Research, Brian Dress, flies solo on this week's episode, with CEO Noland Langford enjoying a well-deserved vacation.

We heard directly from the management of some pretty important tech companies this week, with results coming in fairly mixed. We saw a huge run in Palo Alto Networks ($PANW), along with Snowflake ($SNOW) after very positive earnings releases.

On the other side of the ledger, we saw negative reports out of Nvidia ($NVDA) and Salesforce ($CRM), two titans. What we found interesting was that the market reactions were more muted to this difficult news than it was last quarter, which makes us wonder whether market sentiment is, in fact, turning.

We also cover the fact that energy was the 1 of 11 S&P 500 sectors that was positive on the week and ponder whether energy stocks actually provide some portfolio support that empowers investors to take risk in other areas.

Topic 1: Last Gasp of Q2 Tech Earnings
Topic 2: Energy: Portfolio Ballast?

Get signed up to our newsletter list: https://leftbrainir.com/jarvisnewsletter. Sign up for our research service to receive this week's "The Chosen" report at https://leftbrainir.com/subscribe.

We think it's time for investors to consider putting excess cash back in stock and bond markets, where the momentum is looking better and long-term prospects look strong.

For a portfolio review and to learn more about our "bounce back" list of stocks and our model bond portfolio, head to https://leftbrainir.com/free-portfolio-review or get on Brian's calendar directly at https://calendly.com/briandress. You can reach Brian at (630) 547-3316 or at briand@leftbrainwm.com
Mizuho's Moskowitz recently upgraded $PANW
He cites a primary driver being total billings growth of 44% Y/Y in Q4, which was much better than expected and trounced Mizuho's, and the Street's ~25% growth forecast. He adjusted his price target from $600 -> $660.

I dive into the consensus analyst view, performance, current news and future outlook to make sense of the projection here 👉🏽 https://www.wallstrank.com/blog/palo-alto-networks-stock-mizuho-securities-analyst-forecasts-17-percent-upside
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Giuliano's avatar
$2.1m follower assets
Palo Alto Results
I'll share here the earnings that surprised me the most yesterday. On this ocassion, $PANW.

Fourth Quarter Highlights:

Revenue came in at 1.6bn, up 27% YoY.
Billings grew 44% to 2.7bn.
GAAP Net Income was 3.3M, compared to a GAAP loss of 119M last year.

Guidance for:
1Q: Revenue of 1.54bn, or 23% growth. Billings of 1.69bn, or 22% growth.

Full Year: Revenue of 6.87bn, or 25% growth and an Adjusted free cash flow margin of 34%.

Personal commentary:
Full year guidance is impressive given the uncertainty the world is immersed in. Not only high growth but also the expected fcf margin.

(Of course non gaap metrics look much better, Non gaap net income was 254M, up from 161M last year)

$PANW is currently trading at a market cap of 50bn, or 21 times their expected adjusted free cash flow for this new fiscal year. This is very interesting in my opinion, given the stock is barely below its highs.
Back From My Hiatus - Let’s Get To Work
I finally got settled in my new home - it’s time to get back to work.

Selling a house and moving into a new one has been my focus, but it’s time to get back to the market!

As I make my come back, I’ll be taking ticker requests. Feel free to comment below what you want me to analyze.

Let’s make some money. My current positions are $NIO March 2023 $15p, $NIO short sells, $PANW short sells, and $CHWY short sells.

All of these are a medium term swings for me. 📣
I’ll definitely follow along with the NIO short developments.

And I’m always interested in hearing your up to date thoughts on $ETH.X . You couldn’t have been more right on your last call around $1,700 to drop down to $1,000k. Shame I didn’t listen, but that’s on me 🙃
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