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Vail Resorts

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-$124.20 -35.59%
My August Returns Are In!... And The Good Trend Continues
Retirement Portfolio
In August, I opened two new positions in $NET and $PCOR. I added to three times to $MKL , $TYL, $MCD, and $WM as part of my 401k DCA and added to no other positions. Another relatively quiet month. I also added to $JPM, $AAPL, $SBNY, $COST, $O, and $SBUX via DRIP. I exited $MTCH and sold 32% of my shares in $BMBL.

My retirement portfolio was down 2.54% in August but that was less than my benchmark SPY portfolio (down 4.41%) and benchmark QQQ portfolio (4.51%). I'm now down 37.40% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 16.52% and QQQ benchmark at 21.72%.

My best performing retirement positions YTD:
  • $SWAV is up 96% YTD
  • $EGIO is up 17% YTD
  • $WM is up 14% since I started buying a couple months ago

My best performing retirement positions in August:

My top 10 positions now make up ~35% of my portfolio. The top 6 remain in the same order of $MELI, $AAPL, $AMZN, $F, $GOOGL, and $SHOP. $SWAV jumped up from 9th to 7th after a great month with great earnings with $NVEE, $SIVB, and $COST rounding out the top 10.

Looking forward to September, I'm contemplating exiting my $SQ position. I'm turned off by Jack's comments and his insistence on $BTC.X being the be all and end all. I don't mind the crypto exposure but the Bitcoin only hardline is narrow-minded in my opinion. If you made me czar, I'd actually just have Square exit their crypto entirely and focus on what they're good at.

I'm also considering exiting $MMM in my 401k and replacing it with one of $ABBV, $BEP, $DEA, $HSY, $MKC, $MTN, $TGT, $TROX, $UNP, or $UPS but I need to research them first before deciding.

Taxable Portfolio
In August, I only added to $DT. No positions in this brokerage pay a dividend so there was no DRIP and I did not exit any positions.

My taxable portfolio had a second great bounce back month, up 9.56% after being up 13/67% in July. My benchmark SPY portfolio was down 3.64% and my benchmark QQQ portfolio was down 4.18%. I'm now down 30.15% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 14.84% and QQQ benchmark at 21.43%.

My best performing taxable positions YTD:
  • $TMDX is up 172% YTD for me. Wowsers.

  • $MSP with a 39.49% return YTD - RIP as is had such a great return because it was acquired.

  • That's it. None of my other 14 positions are positive. Whomp whomp.

My best performing taxable positions in August:

My top 10 positions continue to make up ~90% of my portfolio as I only have 14 positions in this brokerage. The top 10 remains basically the same with $SNOW, $TMDX, $ATZAF, $SILK, $DT, $LMND, $NCNO, $CPNG, $OM, and $BIGC.

Looking forward to September, I already added to $ATZAF as my monthly add. I don't expect to make any other moves but we shall see.
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar! (March 14th - 18th)
Earnings season is slowing down, but there are still several very interesting companies reporting next week.

  • $DLO - This company is really interesting. Growing quickly and profitably (28% net profit margin last quarter) while solving a real pain-point for companies.
  • $GTLB - Don't know much about this company, but I've seen a lot of people commenting on it lately so I'll keep an eye out.
  • $S - Extremely expensive cybersecurity stock.
  • $FDX - Not interested in investing in the business, but very interested in their outlook for the supply chain and the impact of higher energy costs.
  • $LEN - Homebuilder. Let's see what their comments are on the supply chain + demand for housing in the US.

What company are you interested in?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
The Travel Sector Needs Corporate Travel Back
The travel sector continues to be hit by COVID-19. Almost two years into the start of the pandemic and most companies in the travel sector are still well-below their pre-pandemic levels. However, there's optimism among the industry executives that travel will come back strong in the coming year.

The latest Fincredible MacroTalk goes over what company executives are seeing regarding the demand for travel. Here are three quotes that stood out to me:

  • $HLT: “Business travel continued to gain momentum, with midweek occupancy and rates improving meaningfully versus the second quarter. In the quarter, business transient room nights were roughly 75% of prior peak levels. Studies show that nearly 70% of U.S. businesses are back on the road, up 28 points from the end of the second quarter. With roughly 80% of our typical corporate mix coming from small- and medium-sized businesses and with the lagging recovery of larger corporate travel, we've taken the opportunity to continue our work from before COVID to further increase our focus on this segment of demand.”

  • $ABNB: “On October 15, I believe it was that date that President Biden announced the reopening of the borders for international travelers come to the United States. Within 1 week of that announcement, we saw a 44% spike in nights booked for stays, crossing borders coming into the United States on Airbnb for stays November 9 and later, which is when the borders would open. So what we are seeing kind of across the board is evidence of pent-up demand.”

  • $DAL“We hear regularly from our corporate customers that they're ready to get back to travel, see their clients face-to-face to renew business relationships and develop new ones. That sentiment is coming through loud and clear in our most recent corporate surveys. More than 90% of our respondents mentioned that they expect travel volumes in the December quarter to either be the same or outpace September quarter. Nearly 60% of our accounts are telling us that they've already reopened their offices with an additional 10% expected to open their offices before year-end.”

It's clear that demand for leisure travel is strong. All of the quotes in the MacroTalk point towards pent-up demand for leisure travel. When allowed, people are going on vacation and traveling.

However, corporate travel is still lagging. The decision to travel or not is a lot more complicated for companies, which has resulted in muted demand for corporate travel this year. There's hope that next year the demand for corporate travel will pick up, but there's no guarantee it will. Without corporate travel, a lot of travel stocks face an uphill battle.

If you'd like to read the whole post, here's the link: Fincredible MacroTalk December 15: Travel Demand.
Hi Alberto this is a great memo ! I am curious to know which companies you believe are best equipped for the uphill battle if corporate travel were to take longer to pick up?
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$MTN Vail Resorts Acquires Three Pittsburgh Area Mountains
The ski operating industry is notoriously a tough industry to compete in. Ski mountains are capital intensive, results are seasonal, and full year results are cyclical dependent on snowfall. I heard from a source that used to be in the industry, many smaller ski mountains will lose money 2/3 years and make it all back in the third. The nature of the industry enabled Vail to acquire the mountains for cheap.
I normally do not like acquisitions, because most are value destructive. Vail has proven to be able to add value to their acquisitions. First, they are very operational efficient and are able to cut costs without decreasing customer service. My local mountain was acquired by Vail and I noticed that first hand. Second, their Epic pass creates a strong competitive advantage. The epic pass is a season pass for all of their mountains. Skiers like to vacation to new terrain. This pass does not cost Vail anymore, but increases skiers willingness to pay. For those reasons Vail commands a premium valuation in this tough industry. Vail trades at 32.4, 2019 EV/EBIT their last full uninterrupted season.
The acquisition side of it seems like a necessary evil. Based on witnessing my friend circle disuses the upcoming ski season the number 1 question is always; "did you do Ikon or Epic?"

There are definitely network effects at play here. If all your friends are selecting a certain pass this season you will likely also choose that pass.


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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$22.4m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Dec. 6th-10th)
Happy Friday everyone! Here is next week's upcoming earnings calendar. I have no position in any of these stocks but there are several that intrigue me:

  • $RH - This company always beats expectations, their management is extremely good, and the valuation (21x Fwd PE) is attractive. A post-earnings sell-off might be a good time to buy.
  • $LULU - $AEO reported strong casual wear sales so Lululemon should also post strong results.
  • $S - I believe cybersecurity stocks will be winners in the coming decade and I want to learn more about the space. The valuation for this one and $CRWD is too high for my liking but hopefully, we'll get good opportunities after the sell-off.
  • $PATH - What this company is doing with automation is very interesting but I don't know enough about it to comment.

Remember, if you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON:
TUE:
WED:
THU:
FRI:
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Eric Pelnik's avatar
$278.2m follower assets
Earnings this week
📞Which calls are you most excited about?

Monday, June 7th
$COUP Coupa Software
$SFIX Stitch Fix
$MTN Vail Resorts

Tuesday, June 8th
$CMCM Cheetah Mobile
$PATH UiPath

Wednesday, June 9th
$GME GME
$RH Restoration Hardware

Thursday, June 10th
$CHWY Chewy

Friday, June 11th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$278.2m follower assets
Earnings this week
Which calls are you most interested in?

Monday, March 8th
$TACO Del Taco Restaurants
$SFIX Stitch Fix
$REV Revlon

Tuesday, March 9th
$HRB H&R Block
$MDB MongoDB
$DKS Dick's Sporting Goods

Wednesday, March 10th
$BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop
$ORCL Oracle
$AMC AMC Entertainment
$TUP Tupperware Brands
$VRA Vera Bradley
$CLDR Cloudera
$LC Lending Club
$SUMO Sumo Logic

Thursday, March 11th
$ULTA Ulta Beauty
$DOMO Domo
$DOCU DocuSign
$FNKO Funko
$ZUO Zuora
$MTN Vail Resorts

Friday, March 12th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$278.2m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, Dec 7th
$COUP Coupa Software
$SMAR Smartsheet
$SFIX Stitch Fix
$SUMO Sumo Logic

Tuesday, Dec 8th
$CHWY Chewy
$AZO AutoZone
$MDB MongoDB
$HRB H&R Block

Wednesday, Dec 9th
$ADBE Adobe
$PTON Peloton
$PANW Palo Alto Networks
$CPB Campbell Soup
$ASAN Asana
$WORK Slack

Thursday, Dec 10th
$CSCO Cisco
$ORCL Oracle
$COST Costco
$LULU Lululemon
$MTN Vail Resorts
$PLAY Dave & Buster's

Friday, Dec 11th
None of interest

Sources: Business Insider, Google Finance, and Yahoo Finance
Eric Pelnik's avatar
$278.2m follower assets
Earnings this week
Monday, Sept 21st

none of interest

Tuesday, Sept 22nd

$SFIX Stitch Fix

$ACB Aurora Cannabis

$NKE Nike

Wednesday, Sept 23rd

$GIS General Mills

Thursday, Sept 24th

$COST Costco

$MTN Vail Resorts

Friday, Sept 25th

none of interest

Sources: Google Finance, Business Insider, and Yahoo Finance
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