Olympia's avatar
$128.1m follower assets
$MSOS +20% in 2 days after >50% decline
sentiment turning quickly from tax-loss harvesting to chasing upside exposure w/ news: Republican-Led Bill To Legalize And Tax Marijuana Emerges As Alternative To Democratic Measures

highest volume day ever for $MSOS today with 3.22 million shares traded vs an average of 1.08 million (NYSE listed US MSOs ETF)

+10% today after +10% on friday

high growth, low valuations, and an abundance of regulatory risks

per Todd, my fav Twitter follow for US MSOs color, cust bought 2k 20jan23 $60 calls, paid 2.80 (10,800 of open interest)

lots of room to run, but will stay volatile with likely pullbacks along the way..

manage your risk.

*Note: I had issues w/ originally attaching images due to bad airplane WIFI, so edited the memo to add
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This is very interesting because it seems for the longest the hype around weed stocks has been mostly unfounded. My cousin kept trying to hold out with $ACB $CGC & $CRON but they kept disappointing. Maybe this new legislation will be that path to profitability!
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Shane James's avatar
$2.6m follower assets
Portfolio Update - March 2021
"Link to substack if you prefer it"

I have started a fresh portfolio to track my performance publicly using my "The Emotionless Investing Framework". In this post, I'll be sharing my newly initiated positions!

The market has been quite volatile these months, mainly because of growing interest rates and the Archego sell-off. Will it go down further? No one knows for sure. What I do know is that I’ll stick to my framework and try investing as emotionless as possible. I italicized ‘try’ to insinuate the difficulty I face is hindering my emotions. It’s hard, to be honest, but the framework truly does help.

If you haven’t read my previous post where I explain the framework, I highly recommend you before reading this, otherwise, you may not understand

As I said in my previous post, I use a basket approach for investing. A basket will contain no more than 15 stocks.

Let me show you my baskets!

The ETF Basket

Holdings:

['ARKK', 'ARKG', 'ARKW', 'ARKF', 'ARKQ', 'ARKX', 'FNGS', 'FNGO', 'FNGU', 'OGIG', 'NUSI', 'IBUY', 'WCLD', 'MSOS', 'BLOK']

As you can see, I’m an avid believer in Cathie Woods's (Owner of ARK invest funds) vision and her open-source approach to research.

I do have a few FANG+ funds, including its 2x and 3x leveraged ETN.

‘OGIG’ is Kevin O’Leary’s ETF which invests in global internet giants.

‘NUSI’ is a Nasdaq-covered call ETF that provides downside protection and a dividend yield of 7.5% as of this writing.

IBUY’ is a basket of companies that obtain 70% or more revenue from online or virtual sales.

WCLD’ tracks the Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP) emerging cloud index.

MSOS’ is a pure US Cannabis ETF.

BLOK’ ETF contains companies actively involved in the development and utilization of blockchain technologies.

The reasons behind each pick will be covered in later posts. Stay tuned!

Now let’s calculate the monthly percentage change for a holding (I have a python script that does it for me, comment if you want to know more about it).

‘ARKK’

Its price on 1st of March: 129.50
Its price on 31st of March: 119.94

Percentage Change = (New price - Old Price)/Old Price *100
=((119.94-129.50)/129.50) *100 =
= -7% (rounded)

We do the same for each stock.

ARKK: -7%
ARKG: -5%
ARKW: -8%
ARKF: -7%
ARKQ: -4%
FNGS: -5%
FNGO: -10%
FNGU: -17%
OGIG: -8%
NUSI: -2%
IBUY: -2%
WCLD: -9%
MSOS: -12%
BLOK: +7%

i.e., Individual % change = [-7, -5, -8, -7, -4, -5, -10, -17, -8, -2, -2, -9, -12, 7]

"I haven’t added ‘ARKX’ in the calculation since it only started trading on the 30th of March"

Total stocks in portfolio = 14 (Didn’t include ‘ARKX’)

Average monthly portfolio change = Sum of Individual % change / Total stocks in the portfolio
= (-7-5-8-7-4-5-10-17-8-2-2-9-12+7) / 14
= -6%

Therefore, we buy each stock in a multiple of 6 (If you don’t understand, please read the previous post)

Let’s say the minimum amount you want to invest is $10. Hence, you will buy 6*10 = $60 worth of each stock.

There are 15 stocks in total (only excluded ‘ARXK’ in the calculation, not in the buying process), and my framework tells me to invest $60 into each stock. Therefore, I have invested a total of 15*60 = $900 into my ETF basket.

Feel free to change the minimum price as per your situation as I have stated in the previous post

The Chosen One’s

This is a basket of my high conviction stocks.

['APPH', 'PLTR', 'LMND', 'NNOX', 'U', 'TSLA', 'SHOP', 'SQ', 'SE', 'CRWD', 'IPOE', 'BFLY', 'NET', 'NVDA', 'SDGR']

"I’m only sharing the ticker symbol, to know more about the stock please google the symbol. The reason behind each pick will be explained in the coming posts."

Use the same process as above to find individual percentage changes and the average change in the portfolio.

Portfolio Weight:15
Individual % change: [-45, -3, -26, -10, -4, -2, -11, 0, -5, -13, -8, -12, -2, 0, -27]
The average change in the portfolio is: -11%

Therefore, each stock is bought in a multiple of 11. If the minimum amount is $10, as stated before, $110 is invested into each stock for a total of 110*15 = $1650.

CryptoBucket

A basket of highest conviction cryptocurrencies and tokens.

['$BTC.X', '$ETH.X', '$DFI.X', '$HNS.X', '$ATOM.X', '$DASH.X', '$MANA.X', '$BAT.X', '$STX', '$NMR.X', '$DOGE.X', '$FIL.X', '$HNT.X', '$ALGO.X]

"I’m only sharing the ticker symbol, to know more about the stock please google the symbol with the keyword 'crypto' beside. The reason behind each pick will be explained in the coming posts."

Use the same process as above to find individual percentage changes and the average change in the portfolio.

Portfolio Weight:14
Individual % change: [27, 33, 11, 54, 2, 8, 312, 117, 20, 31, 6, 445, 166, 41]
The average change in the portfolio is +91%.
Wow!

Since the average change is positive, you have two options; Either invest the minimum amount ($10 in the above case) or wait for the change to become negative and invest accordingly.

I recommend you to initiate a starter position if you don’t have any and further invest only when there’s a negative change.

My current positions and average buy prices:

ETF Basket

Stock Avg buy price($)
$ARKF 52.335
$ARKG 89.8661
$ARKK 120.8873
$ARKQ 84.7206
$ARKX 20.7951
$ARKW 149.5924
$FNGS 28.65
$FNGO 38.6952
$FNGU 28.9001
$NUSI 26.9451
$IBUY 125.4705
$WCLD 49.2603
$OGIG 53.3452
$BLOK 56.5851
$MSOS 43.5701

Chosen One’s

Stock Avg buy price($)
$APPH 18.015
$BFLY 16.74
$CRWD 185.7575
$LMND 94.8251
$NET 71.9801
$NNOX 41.7301
$NVDA 551.2403
$PLTR 22.965
$SDGR 79.62
$SE 236.3761
$SHOP 1142.3824
$SQ 228.9997
$TSLA 670.2005
$U 100.2506

If you have any confusion or recommendations, feel free to comment. If you liked the post, please share and like!

Thanks for reading.
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Near term pullback?
Breadth divergences are starting to appear in the major US indices. With the last week of Jan pulling back 4ish percent from the recent highs, we're at the 50 day moving average and December highs in the S&P. Next area of support is 3500 areas, which is the September highs and 100 day moving average.

With January being negative for the S&P, the month's returns are 84% indicative of the rest of the year. When negative, the market is tends to be flat or experience a 10% drawdown (which is avg market year).


Raise your stops and your cash in the near term. But in the future, Mr Market will be right, and my guess is just a blindfolded dart throw.

Jan 2021 Holdings (not linked yet) -
Stocks:
$SFIX - 8.6%
$MDB - 8.2%
$BRK.B- 8.2%
$PLTR - 8.2%
$CD - 5.7%
$SQ - 5.6%
$UPWK - 5.2%
$DOCU - 5.2%
$MBIO - 4.9%
$MP - 4.0%
ETFs:
$EEM - 8.5%
$MSOS - 5.8%
$VVO - 5.6%
$QQQJ - 4.2%
Options:
$CHD - 1.5%
$WWE - .6%
CASH: 10%
While it is just one day, the market showed a strong beginning of the month start, after finishing January abysmally. Again, one should be open minded to ALL outcomes.

**Data to counter my thesis for a flat to pullback February for the major indices:**
  • Tom Lee believes that much of the selling & "de-grossing" from funds reached its peak last week. This would mean much LESS selling pressure in the near term.

**Data to support a digestion of gains, or pullback in February:**
  • 52 week highs continue to collapse -
  • Poor reactions to earnings from huge names like AAPL, and those large cap growth names are under recent support (ie AAPL needs to stay above $138 to remain bullish, otherwise take a wait & see approach)
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