Top Gainers Today @ 10am
Top Gainers Today @ 10am: $MRNA, $TDOC, $OSH, $CIG, $NVAX, $HPK, $FRGE, $AXNX, $HUBG, $HTH, $SILK, $CUTR, $GFF, $IMAB, $NGM, $TGTX, $ACCD, $DCPH, $INBX, $NSR
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What to watch for the week of 5/2/22.
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? Here’s a watchlist that I created of some potential catalysts I’ll be keeping an eye on and looking to trade for the week beginning May 2nd. Feel free to save it for reference, share it in your trade groups and repost it on your social media page. Also be sure to follow me. Let me know what you’ll be watching in the comments.

$ABNB $SQ $LCID $DKNG $ETSY $NIO $PFE $AMD $RCL $ANET $BP $FSR $CHGG $QSR $MRNA $ENB $SPY $SWBI $TWLO
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Steve Matt's avatar
$1.3m follower assets
The Coming Week in Earnings
Woooo boy, this week will be fun for my portfolio.

Monday (5/2)
  • $BIGC^ (On my Sell Watchlist)

Tuesday (5/3)
  • $SMG
  • $ABNB^
  • $TMDX^
  • $MTCH^
  • $OUST (I own LEAPs expiring 1/20/23)
  • $INSP^
  • $DMTK^
  • $SBUX

Wednesday (5/4)
  • $XYL^
  • $BIPC
  • $REGN
  • $MRNA
  • $IDXX^
  • $EXPI^ (On my Buy Watchlist)
  • $IIPR^
  • $STAA^
  • $OM^
  • $GTBIF
  • $FSLY^ (On my Sell Watchlist)
  • $O
  • $ETSY^
  • $SILK^

Thursday
  • $SHOP^
  • $BFLY^
  • $DDOG^
  • $PGNY^
  • $ATZAF^
  • $LCID
  • $APPN^
  • $NVEE^
  • $SQ^
  • $FUBO^
  • $ILMN^
  • $MELI^

Friday
  • $DKNG^

Anything with a ^ indicates I read the 8-K and 10-Q/10-K and track their financials along with KPIs on a spreadsheet I have.

So basically, this will be me next week...
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Earnings Week 05/02/22
Monday: $BRK.A $EXPE $MGM $CHGG
Tuesday: $PFE $AMD $ABNB $SBUX $SWKS $LYFT
Wednesday: $MRNA $CVS $GOLD $REGN $UBER $ETSY $TWLO $SKLZ
Thursday: $SHOP $CROX $PENN $DDOG $CCJ $SQ $FUBO $LCID $NET $MELI $OPEN $DASH $SPCE
Friday: $DKNG $UA $CI
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4th Booster Shot
$PFE and $MRNA are doing their best to maximize the amount of revenue they can reap from their COVID vaccine franchise. While the first booster shot was a big success, I don't see the second booster shot becoming a big success.

Do you see the second booster shot having immense demand?
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 21th - 25th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! Several very interesting reports coming up. Here's what I'll be looking forward to.

  • $MELI - How much did inflation impact their logistics margins?
  • $SQ - Cash App Users and Revenue Growth
  • $COIN - I think they will deliver a monster quarter. Crypto volatility should incentivize trading, driving commissions revenue above forecast.

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

TUE:
  • BMO: $HD $M $MDT $CBRL $DNUT $LPX $DORM $JELD $SOHU $TRU $CEQP

  • AMC: $NU $SPCE $TDOC $MELI $PANW $FANG $TOL $A $RIG $MOS $HQY $CDNS $CZR

WED:
  • BMO: $LOW $TJX $BCRX $OSTK $VIPS $JACK $MNDY $PLAB $TAP $BHC $LL $RSKD

  • AMC: $FUBO $CLOV $SKLZ $LMND $EBAY $VAC $NTAP $ROOT $MGNI $BBWI $REAL $FLGT

THU:
  • BMO: $BABA $MRNA $NKLA $NCLH $W $SIX $NTES $EXPI $DISCA $THTX $EDIT $TECK $SEAS

  • AMC: $SQ $COIN $BYND $ETSY $OPEN $INTU $RKT $DELL $ZS $ADSK $OXY

FRI:
  • BMO: $FL $LI $DSX $NOG $BHVN $EOG $CM $OCN $TREE $MGI
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$MRNA
  • If you haven't read this already, this two part investigative report into Moderna is amazing.
  • The first part looks at the company pre-Covid – “From 2016 right up until the emergence of COVID-19, Moderna could barely hold it together, as it was shedding key executives, top talent, and major investors at an alarming rate.
  • The second part covers how the Covid crisis “bailed” the company out and the circumstances around this.
  • A very deep and in places troubling read.
Peloton's woes could be a preview of what's about to come
Remember back in 2020-2021 when $PTON was struggling to produce enough bikes and treadmills?

When they had to acquire a fitness equipment manufacturer for $420 million just to have more infrastructure to meet the unprecedented demand. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/21/peloton-to-acquire-fitness-equipment-maker-precor-for-420-million.html

When they spent another $400 million to produce their first manufacturing facility in the US, in the state of Ohio, as a way to skirt past the supply chain woes. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/24/peloton-to-invest-400-million-on-first-us-production-facility-in-ohio.html

Now, they're dealing with the opposite situation. A situation where demand has fallen off a cliff. A situation so severe that they now have to halt production. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html

While Peloton is the COVID stock spending its time in the limelight as investors are shocked at how a fast-growing company could suddenly be sitting on a ton of products that people wanted yesterday.

This situation that Peloton is facing could also be something many more firms will face in the future. Inflation is through the roof. Supply chain issues are reducing consumer sentiment. Everything that we're seeing from empty shelves to a parade of cargo ships off the coast of SoCal is making people rethink their consumption habits.

Many say that we're in a shortage of various goods like semiconductors and vehicles. However, when looking at the data, this "shortage" is the cause of an unprecedented demand surge.

The chart below shows the huge supply-demand gap for consumer goods. Global Real Production of Goods has been increasing. Comparing that to the nominal demand of goods, production is dwarfed compared to demand.

As seen below, the output is well above pre-COVID levels. Producers are producing way more than ever!

And imports are well above pre-COVID levels too! Despite the congestion at the ports, we manage to continue to import more product than ever.

As for the semiconductor industry, chipmakers are making more chips than ever. Every year, since 2019, chipmakers continue to expand their production of chips.

While the production of chips has been increasing consistently from 2019 to 2020, the unprecedented demand for chips in 2020 promoted chipmakers to expand production aggressively. That's why we see an acceleration in chipmaking in 2021.

While we might be seeing retail sales data (like the one below) today, in the future, that number could drop as consumers start to cut back on consumption and wait until these issues with "shortages" and supply chain issues get sorted out.

And don't forget that it's not only Peloton that's seeing demand for goods slowing. $AAPL told its suppliers in late December that it's seeing demand for their new iPhones slowing as well. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-02/apple-tells-suppliers-iphone-demand-has-slowed-as-holidays-near

As for the vaccine makers like $MRNA $BNTX and $PFE, they too are seeing demand for their vaccines slowing as well. The mad rush for boosters was quite temporary and many of the vaccinated are resisting the urge to get the booster because they don't see a point in getting it when bureaucrats and pharmaceutical companies are looking to add a 4th dose.


These few instances are just the beginning. We will soon see slowing sales for physical goods as time goes on. And with that possibility, we can see firms resorting to the sale of digital goods. $NKE and $RL are some of the retailers that look to benefit massively from resorting to the sale of NFT virtual clothing if ever demand for their physical clothes falls off a cliff.

If there's one lesson I've learned from my high school economics class, it's that the peak of the Roaring '20s was evident when consumers started consuming less.
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Great point— it's a trap that more will fall into; ramping up supply only to realize that the demand was temporary. Great post, and interesting thought at the end about how more firms will move into selling digital goods because there are no production and supply problems to trip over.
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