$YETI $MQ $BROS Earnings: What I'm Looking For
YETI Holdings, Inc. ($YETI) - Reporting earnings tomorrow morning (5/11)

Often unmentioned, YETI is one of my "stable" positions. I don't expect them to return 30% growth year after year. That's what makes 2021 curious, as they had 29% growth. Even the 2nd half of 2020 over the 2nd half of 2019 was just 27.3%. 2021 was heavily driven by DTC sales (35% growth), which has gone from 24% of their 2016 revenue (with the other 76% being wholesale) to 72% in 2021.

  • Where does Q1 revenue fall? YETI is highly cyclical with their Q1 sales being the lowest each fiscal year. On top of that, they're lapping some tough comps.
  • What's the DTC revenue growth?
  • The "Other" segment (one of three revenue segments along with Coolers & Equipment and Drinkware) grew 61% in 2021. Granted, that still makes it only 1.9% of full year revenue. Barely affects the bottom line but I'm just curious what it comes in at.
  • International more than doubled in revenue in 2021. Will that continue?

Current position:
Total cost basis: 62nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.49 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 0
Annualized return: (15.4%)
Annualized $SPY return: 7.7%
Annualized $QQQ return: 2.9%

Marqeta, Inc. ($MQ) - Reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon (5/11)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Total Payment Volume is a key indicator, obviously. Over $111B flowed through their company in 2021, 85% above 2020. It goes without saying that number needs to keep growing rapidly.
  • They recently announced their new RiskControl solution, "a comprehensive product suite to help its customers better optimize their card programs and take control of end-to-end risk management" to combat card fraud. I love this. Build out a suite of tools to make your network more sticky.
  • Need to see concentration risk start dropping. 90% of their TPV settled through Sutton Bank in 2021, down from 96% the year before. Need to keep that going down. Additionally, 69% of their revenue in 2021 came from Block ($SQ). That's a great customer but if that agreement, which is due to expire in March 2024, isn't renewed, Marqeta will tank. Keep bringing on new business and expand existing relationships.
  • It'd be nice if management began releasing additional KPIs like customer count, customers generating >$100,000 in revenue, etc. At least management gave the DBNER on the conference call for 2021 full year results (they said it was a remarkable 175%).

Current position:
Total cost basis: 72nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.43 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (87.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (26.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (42.3%)

Dutch Bros Inc. ($BROS) - Reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon (5/11)
Ooooh boy, do I love coffee. I still haven't tried Dutch Bros. yet but I will be in a month or so when I make my next trip up to Wine Country in California!

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Company-operated (co.-op) shops is where it's at. They're moving away from the franchising model (existing franchisees can open new shops but they aren't taking any new franchisees). Revenue has grown >60% for co.-op shops the past 2 years. That needs to continue.

  • Same-shop comps have been all over the place due to COVID. 2021 was 9%. Not sure that can continue. I'll be watching to see where this lands.
  • Did they hit their Q1 goal of opening 30 new shops and will nearly all of them be co.-op shops? From the guidance section of the Q4 earnings press release: "Total system shop openings are expected to be at least 30, of which nearly all shops will be company-operated."
  • Dutch Rewards membership count. They launched it in early 2021 and ended the year with over 3.2MM members. Strong loyalty will keep this chain thriving and membership to Dutch Rewards will be a great indicator of that.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 48th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.29 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (8.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (25.3%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (39.9%)
Ladies and Gentlemen
Marqeta $MQ has taken a dump with the market, but I’m holding firm on my gig economy outlook. I recently rotated out of a few Singaporean stocks to buy Zovio - an online education software used by ASU Online. I’m a firm believer in remote learning and believe in ASU’s vision. Earnings are next week, so I’m taking a gamble!

Bullish on $MQ. $SQ earnings today may give us a sneak peak since Marqeta powers the Cash App Cash Card. Block called out the success of the card in their last earnings report.
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Cameron McFarlane's avatar
$902.3k follower assets
US Portfolio April Results:
Performance YTD: -40.54% vs SPY: -13.60%
Portfolio By Weight:

$NVDA - 13.03%
$SE - 12.21%
$PLTR - 11.32%
$GOOG - $11.07%
$DDOG - 10.60%
$SQ - 7.69%
$ZS - 7.12%
$ABNB - 4.30%
$TSLA - 4.19%
$TTD - 4.00%
$MGNI - 3.78%
$DOCN - 3.18%
$MQ - 2.71%
$OPEN - 2.45%
$QQQ - 2.20%

Tough month, that's for sure. I'm still buying fortnightly, mostly $GOOG... at this point. I haven't sold any positions this month, i'm hoping in years to come i'll be rewarded for holding onto them - I understand some more than likely won't ever make it to all time highs again and could end up being scooped up via M&A's. Time will tell...
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Beaten-down 2021 IPOs
I love avoiding new initial public offerings for their first couple of earnings reports as a publicly-traded company -- but even more so, I love revisiting them after this 6-12 months.

Life as a newly public company is rough as expectations from analysts are wonky, and management is adjusting to a new lifestyle of increased scrutiny.

With this in mind, here's a list of 2021 IPOs I'm watching that have traded down since going public.

$RSKD Riskified -74% | $PATH UiPath -67% | $COOK Traeger -66% | $BIRD Allbirds -65% | $MQ Marqueta -64% | $CPNG Coupang -62% | $OLO Olo -56% | $COIN Coinbase -53% | $APP Applovin -51% | $EXFY Expensify -44% | $USER UserTesting -42% | $BMBL Bumble -42% | $WRBY Warby Parker -40% | $AFRM Affirm -39% | $WEBR Weber -37% | $NU Nu -31%| $RBLX Roblox -30% | $SEMR SEMrush -27% | $FIGS FIGS -27% | $MNDY Monday -13% | $DOCN DigitalOcean -11% | $CFLT Confluent -8% | $GLBE Global-e Online -6% |

Curious to hear what you all may like the most from these?

Out of this list, four are part of my Core 34 group of holdings that I aim to add to the most here in 2022.

Have a good weekend, friendly humans.
With of the four from my core 34 do you like the most?
10%Global-e Online
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/02/22
Algorithmic Tech Sell Off
Netflix’s hilarious slump has me reminiscing over an Instagram reel in 2021 where a man with a backwards cap was finger pointing at the camera touting his $50k investment of Netflix in 2017… guaranteed he didn’t sell because 90% of the people that road the Dot Com Bubble sold at the bottom… well, he still doubled his money.

The Dow/SP 500 and NASDAQ are finally decoupling their algorithmic relationship, meaning we’ll continue to see large price discrepancies. I’m not touting the deflation of all tech companies, however, I’ll be focusing my attention on two gig economy stocks: Marqeta $MQ and UBER $UBER. I’m already invested in Marqeta (see my previous post) and will enter UBER following a similar thesis based on Modern Portfolio Theory.

I exited Vermilion Energy TSE:VET and Mosaic last week; holding SembCorp Industries SGX: U96.
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Marqeta $MQ - An Inflationary Trade
Inflation is chipping away at many American’s monthly, weekly bottom line and gig work is becoming a quick fix to help level off expenses.

Marqeta services the cards for many gig related companies, such as UBER, Instacart and DoorDash. I think as inflation continues and gig work rises, $MQ is set to benefit substantially with increased transactions. We will have better clarity on this investment thesis when earnings are released on May 11th.

In addition, $MQ provides exposure to crypto, which although I’m not entirely convinced on, the asset class has become mainstream and crypto wallets are finding very prosperous niche markets in sanctioned economies, video games and streaming, and a means of supporting causes worldwide with less red tape.

Furthermore, investment banks are increasing analyst coverage of Marqeta with a positive outlook. However, traditional investors prefer a bit of a financial track record and at first glance $MQ looks like a SPAC, but is in fact an IPO. From a quick search on Reddit, Marqeta is currently not on the retail investors radar.

Happy trading and investing during such turbulent times in our history. Thanks for reading and sharing 🍻

How PayPal views cards
$PYPL debuted a Venmo card merely to "bridge the gap between now and when all transactions are done digitally."
It sees that its PayPal branded credit card offered through Synchrony is viewed in the same light by management.
How do innovative card issuers like $MQ exist within that long term vision if it comes to fruition? Not saying it's set in stone, but it does seem likely that cards become less and less common in the years to come.
I've done next to 0 work on the company. Open to any opinions.
Does it have a deep presence in digital wallets? Is it helping Apple Pay or Google Pay facilitate transactions? Is card issuing simply a stepping stone to another endeavor with a longer runway? Is this company's future in the physical issuance of cards?
I want to love it just based on the financial statements. Help me love it. 🙂
I can see a physical cardless world emerging but not as a full assimilation amongst older generations for some time. Even as a 25 year old myself, I find myself almost exclusively using physical cards.
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