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Altria Group

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-$8.36 -17.15%
Oligopoly of Vice
My most recent article on my Substack about the global tobacco industry, highlighting how the sector is currently structured and some predictions for the future.


New to CommonStock, looking forward to sharing ideas on here! 😀

Hey man, so weird because i just discovered your substack today, and now I see you on Commonstock for the first time. Welcome 👍🏼

How’d you discover it?
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Investor Battle!

If you want to participate in an Investor Battle, let me know! We're currently looking for someone to take on @jdub over Lucid Air $LCID. Maybe @christian7621 or @dissectmarkets? ?

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Luka 🦉's avatar
$103.4m follower assets
Do you that it will now be a better future for JUUL and $MO?


I believe that that, since such payment needs to be done in 10 years, there is now all interest from the regulator to let JUUL sell their product. So I expect the FDA will not issue any ban, and the company can return to business.

Damage is already done, and it will take time, but eventually, JUUL will survive.
Will JUUL recover?
44%Yes
55%No
9 VotesPoll ended on: 09/14/22
In my opinion, no. I keep close tabs on this space, and I have a contact at the UK's largest Vape franchise. Vape shops hate Juul and are doing anything they can to stop stocking them. This particular store recently sold the last of their inventory and are not buying more. They have a substitute product.

Outside of that, as popular as Juuls were in circa 2017-2018, there are now products that are as popular (Elfbar in Europe) and I rarely see Juuls anymore.
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Dividend Portfolio Update
As you may know, I write many updates, economic analysis, and opinion pieces on my website, you can read my most recent full portfolio update here. However, it's been a while since I've shared an update on Commonstock so let's do one!

To date, I have invested $11,050 into the account the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $10,540. That’s a total loss of -4.62% The account is down $310.76 for the week which is a -2.86% loss.

We started building this portfolio on 9/24/2021 and, even with this rough last week, when compared to the S&P 500 we are outperforming the market so far! Within that same timeframe, the S&P 500 is down -11.92% whereas our portfolio is down 4.62%! I love tracking my portfolio against a benchmark like the S&P. The above chart comes from Sharesight which makes portfolio and dividend management a breeze!

We added $250 in cash to the account over the last two weeks.

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week and the blue ones are positions that I reinvested dividends into. The positions that we added to increased our annual dividend income by $8 at a yield of 4.54%.

For the last two weeks we received $13.78 from five dividends: $2.29 from $SMHB, $2.47 from Starbucks ($SBUX), $1.01 from Aflac ($AFL), $5.88 from Intel ($INTC), and $2.14 from Cummins ($CMI).

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically.

Dividends received for 2022: $237.97
Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $255.90

You can see my trades on my profile and next week I will continue to add $10 into each ETF ($SPY, $XYLG, and $SCHD) and will look at deploying the rest of the money either into $MO or $BBY for the upcoming ex-dividend date.

That is it for the update this week. Let’s kill it next week. Stay patient and be ready to buy income producing assets at a discount!

coming in order to help arm yourself with a strategy for your future buys!
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Altria - The Cash Cow
With a dominant market position insulated by regulation and net-favorable taxation dynamics, Altria $MO, in clockwork fashion, has wielded pricing power to more than offset cigarette volume declines. While the world frets about the USD wrecking ball and possible deglobalization, this old-economy stalwart just keeps humming along:

My next comprehensive company-specific piece, covering British American Tobacco $BTI, will be out this Sunday, 9/4/2022.

In the meantime, check out the full report on Altria, and be sure to subscribe:
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Altria Increases Quarterly Dividend by 4.4%

Annualized dividend increases from $3.60 to $3.76.

Updated simple Gordon Growth Model:

~8.11% yield @ current price. Is it sustainable?
Check below for a comprehensive analysis of the business, including regulation, competition, and multiple approaches to valuation:

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Paul Cerro's avatar
$36.4m follower assets
Wow, a $11 billion markdown loss for Amazon on Rivian 👀

I saw one over the weekend and got to meet the woman who designed the full-kitchen in the Rivian Trucks. They are a very impressive product.
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Devin LaSarre's avatar
$20.3m follower assets
Quick thoughts on Altria $MO Q2:
Q2 industry cig vols very weak. Prem purchases per trip in-line /w last year, but high gas reducing store trip frequency.

Share stable. Marlboro retail share up q/q .1 from 42.6 to 42.7. Y/y hare of prem segment more impressive, up .5 to 58.1.

Industry oral seg growth down -.5. Disappointing.

But on! growth impressive, with quarterly shipment vol up 57.4% y/y.

on! now holds a 4.9% share of oral tobacco product seg.

Lots of potential, though worth remembering, it's still being heavily discounted/subsidized.

JUUL writedown as expected. Val $450m. Now under 10% threshold to severe N-C, though no sense in doing so currently.

Not much said on $BUD

Not much clarity on the future of $PM IQOS deal.

Not much said on Poda. PMTA roadmap points to years before relevancy anyways.

The overall trend for combustibles persists. Like clockwork.

Total vols down. Prices up. Op Margins up.

Despite cig vols being exceedingly weak, FCF is robust.

Hitting full-year guide questionable? But headwinds may ease in second half 22. Each year, even after paying div, normally sitting on ~$1 bil extra cash. Likely going to BB, but potentially M&A, though the company has expressed specific focus on internal pipeline.

Overall, a rather uninspired qtr, but long-term thesis remains intact. Puff puff.

If you're interested in $MO or the US market + regulation broadly, read this:
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Devin LaSarre's avatar
$20.3m follower assets
Altria $MO Earnings
Altria $MO is reporting earnings Thursday, 7/28.

JUUL? Regulation? Poda? $BUD stake?

I'm more interested in volumes, pricing, mix shift, and retail share.

Whatever keeps this trend looking pretty:

If you're interested in Altria $MO and the US tobacco market with respect to regulation, you'll find a comprehensive look here:
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Their decades of performance is impressive, given the uphill battle they’ve climbed. I smoked for years, so wanted to hold $MO to get some of my damned money back after I finally quit. I eventually sold, but only because my investing philosophy changed when I realized I could outperform my prior dividend method that had included Altria.
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