Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 1
So I already made some changes on Thursday and Friday.

  • Sold $ZM - not a bad company by any means but since I'm doing some consolidation I decided to cut due to heated up competition with $GOOGL's Meet and Chat + $MSFT going straight after not only Zoom's core offering but even after their growth parts (take Zoom Phone vs Teams Phone as an example), but with one problem - Microsoft is including Teams into Win11 by default and including all the good stuff Teams has for businesses into Microsoft 365 packages which businesses already pay for, therefore the value proposition should be better than paying for additional service. So those are the headwinds I'm seeing.
  • Sold $DOCU due to troubled execution of Agreement Cloud, I was looking for an improvements this quarter, but since it's been a while now and they just recently hired a new president of global operations which should help them do just that, I don't expect any significant improvements this quarter really. I'll consider adding to my $ADBE where I see a pretty good execution of the Document Cloud and great relationship with Microsoft which already uses their solutions and integrates well within Office package.
  • Sold $KIND simply due to other ad-tech names coming down substantially, I see them as more lucrative and proven than say Nextdoor in the current context. Simply a consolidation decision.

  • Added to $HUBS and $MELI after stellar execution and fantastic results. They definitely are the winners I consider a core part of my portfolio.

I'm thinking of some other changes at the time though not yet decided, mainly around streaming services, so think $NFLX and $DIS. I've been also rewatching Tony Seba's notes on Energy, Transportation, Agriculture and Food: https://youtu.be/Kj96nxtHdTU brilliant mind, go check it out, it's bonkers!!, and also watched the RethinkX film which explains all the fundamental shifts coming this decade in a perfectly understandable and fascinating form - https://youtu.be/r71yNnfY6ss

I definitely want to adjust my portfolio to that too, so there's some more thinking going on inside my head.

Have a great rest of the weekend!
Strat Becker's avatar
$4.5m follower assets
Revisiting Nextdoor
I wanted to revisit the short report I made on $KIND 3 months ago. Since highlighting material issues with the company in February, Nextdoor has lost over 44% of its value and fallen over 10% below the bear price target I initially modeled.

While in tracking my aggregate performance I covered the “position” on April 26th due to the risk/reward from my initial target shifting to neutral/unfavorable, the stock falling this much further is reasonable considering the company’s primary growth driver was expansion in Europe. Considering they generate revenue from ads, the war in Ukraine has caused material decreases in European advertising spend, impairing the company’s growth substantially.

I’d recommend taking a look at my original post, I still believe the original ideas hold true

April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:


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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Brief news 3/5/22
$AAPL partnered with $ROKU and launched Apple Music app on Roku.

$AMZN plans to create about 2500 corporate and tech jobs in California with expansions in Santa Monica, Irvine and San Diego.

$ENPH expanded their solar energy deployments in the Netherlands.

$FVRR introduced AI generated voice auditions for voiceover artists so they don't have to read a single sentence from a script now.

$KIND launched new neighbor features to increase transparency and encourage constructive conversations; fight toxicity using an AI and Machine Learning.

$SPOT partnered with $RBLX to launch a Spotify Island - a virtual paradise where fans and artists can hang out and explore sounds, quests and exclusive merch/content. Players can also enjoy an immersive audio experience by creating music and exploring sounds at the virtual beat-maker stations powered by Soundtrap. Try it out if you want: https://www.roblox.com/games/8209480473/Spotify-Island

$ZI acquired Comparably and renamed their RecruitingOS to the TalentOS. Their offering now looks like this:

ZoomInfo also released earnings yesterday, here visualized:

$ZS appointed Brendan Castle as a Chief People Officer. Brendan brings about 30 years of experience to the company and previously led $GOOGL's 3000-person global recruiting organization covering all hiring from new graduates to industry and executive for all products, services, sales, and engineering.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
I like how $KIND is #3 in the U.S. Apple App Store in category News and nobody seems to care anyways lol.
They stuck a flier through my door once, and that was the first time I had ever heard of them. Seems like Facebook but with all the annoying neighbourhood watch people in it, haha.
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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Digital Ad Revenue Jumped 35% in the U.S. Last Year, Biggest Gain Since 2006
So WSJ just published this interesting article about last year's ad spending, based on some new reports: https://www.wsj.com/articles/digital-ad-revenue-jumped-35-in-the-u-s-last-year-biggest-gain-since-2006-11649759401

TL;DR

  • The growth accelerated from 12% in 2020 to 35% in 2021
  • Digital Audio (Streamed music, Radio and Podcasts) grew 58% YoY to $4,9B and still makes up only 2,6% of all digital ad spend
  • Main struggle for Digital Audio advertising is a lack of measurement of just how successful the reach is -- very bullish for $SPOT which appears to have figured this out
  • The largest 10 digital publishers and platforms made up 78% of all the digital ad spend
  • E-commerce expected to drive the growth in digital channels
  • Companies like $DASH $WMT $CVS expected to benefit from their consumer data by offering that to advertisers so they can better target their customers
  • Midterm elections should also boost ad spend on streaming TV -- bullish for $ROKU $TTD $TWLO

Overall, I expect this growth to continue this year as well, as inflation weights on consumer sentiment and buying power, businesses will continue to seek data driven advertising to target the customer who's willing to spend money. Therefore I'm excited to catch that opportunity by investing into such companies who enable this.

I'm mostly thinking of $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $KIND $ROKU $SPOT $SNAP $TTD

Let me know down below what you think!
I just went out to take out the trash, and coincidently I met an elderly woman who happened to take out trash at the same time too. Surprisingly we've chatted for about 20-30 minutes without even knowing each other and it felt very different, very refreshing, very natural...

She told me about a lot of stuff going on in her life and shared with me how she feels lost in this age, because there's so small group of people she can talk to as opposed to what she was used to a couple of decades ago, and I completely agree.

I think overall we people have lost touch with folks and more specifically elderly in our lives. We've moved into virtual space, leaving behind all these innocent and kind people who helped shaping our own future and lives, And I don't think this is fair nor right.

Actually, this is what I've been thinking about a while ago, and been looking for a solution that could address that. Turns out, there is such a solution. It's called @nextdoor. And situations like those ignited this idea of investing into a platform that connects neighbourhoods.

A platform that reconnects and results in new friendships in areas where they otherwise wouldn't have been made. I feel that this goal is right, it aligns with my values. This is also why I've become a shareholder in $KIND, and why I'm looking forward to join the platform in Slovakia.
Lovely sentiment :)
Great reminder about reconnecting with the people in your area- especially the people who aren’t joining us in digital spaces.
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Growth stocks now similarly moving, a lot of them in-fact forming great technical setups indicating potential reversal of their bearish activity. Need today and tomorrow to see weak red candles to confirm, but so far there's a potential.

$TDOC likely with the best setup here already, but I'm also patiently eyeing $FVRR $KIND $MELI $NET $PATH $PLTR $SE $SHOP $SPOT $U and to some degree $TSLA too.
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