Abilash Satya's avatar
$2m follower assets
In Bear market or not ?
With bear market news around the corner, I dipped into the charts of S&P 500 'Top 10' stocks to check on their current levels. Here are the insights :

  • Current Top 10 S&P stocks by weight (in the order )
( My watchlist had $JPM as 10th entry. It has been replaced with $UNH. Any thoughts ?)

  • 8 out of 10 stocks are under 50SMA and 200SMA on daily charts except for $BRK.B and $UNH which are just touching 200MA.

  • However, on weekly charts, I see 6 out of 10 stocks between 50SMA and 200SMA. 2 stocks above 50SMA and 200SMA. And the last 2 , $AMZN and $FB crossed below 200SMA.

With looming food shortage , spiked gas prices , ongoing war , inflation , housing market potentially entering correction , hiring freeze from companies etc.. more drawdown of S&P 500 index expected ?

I am trying to find information to see if i have to rebalance some of the funds to have more bond exposure. I am planning to go 100% SPY index when we flatten out and start showing some strengths in the months to come.
Steve Matt's avatar
$1.2m follower assets
1 of 10
401k Buys
They didn't all map over to Commonstock so here's a breakdown of my monthly 401k buys. I buy the same dollar amount of each once per month. This month equaled ~13% more to each total cost basis.

$BIPC - Added ~12% more shares
$CRM - Added ~20% more shares
$PEP - Added ~12% more shares
$O - Added ~13% more shares
$MMM - Added ~14% more shares
$SHW - Added ~14% more shares
$MPW - Added ~16% more shares
$PLD - Added ~16% more shares
$JPM - Added ~16% more shares
$TROW - Added ~18% more shares
Giro Lino's avatar
$2.8m follower assets
Will $STNE be acquired?
Yesterday, we wrote about the rumors that BTG Pactual would be negotiating to buy $STNE.

Since Thursday, the market has been speculating that BTG Pactual and Stone would be negotiating an M&A — actually, BTG Pactual would be the buyer.

$STNE's gossip began in Dec of 2021 when the company hired $JPM to assess strategic options. In the local market, however, the gossip about $STNE looking for a potential buyer since March of 2021, when the company was supposedly negotiating with $XP.

As the deal didn't prevail, $STNE turned to Inter since both have an NDA agreement, but soon the sell-off began, and the deal was down. The market spreads the news that Stone has been negotiating with BTG Pactual, even though the deal would not be close to being concluded.

➡️What is in there for BTG Pactual?
Stone is one of the top five players in the industry, with a considerable capillarity, good tech resources for scaling its operations, and top-notch logistic capabilities.

Honestly, I believe that Andre Esteves (BTG Chairman) also observes that Andre Street ($STNE Chairman) is back. After losing money in its credit operation, local investors sold their shares quickly because of $STNE's naivety in jumping the gun, especially about lending in Bz.

Nevertheless, the market still has a high consideration for Street, so he returned and joined meetings with crucial investors. We believe Esteves knows that his name associated with Street's would restore investors’ confidence in mgnt and would use this to convince Street.

➡️What is in there for Stone?
Even though Stone isn't facing a liquidity issue, the company could use more resources to accelerate its strategy and resume its credit operation.

With BTG, $STNE could strengthen its position as a payment gateway for merchants using BTG's capital to leverage the existing operation. $STNE could leverage its platform to gain stickiness with its clients by offering complex products, such as lending, insurance, etc.

post media
I guess combining BTG's expertise in the credit business with Stone's capilarity and commercial strenght in BZ's SMB space would be a powerful mix for them to escalate the lending portfolio in this segment with both good pace and risk assessment. The deal would be a win-win in my view (even before considering the optionalities that would open up wiht both André's working together...)
View 1 more comment
$JPM Technical Analysis Projection
$JPM is one I am watching for a gap fill to the downside between $105 - $110. As you can see, we completed a rounded top with a break of support, and it has been nothing but continual selling pressure.

If we get any bounce on this name, I will look to get a short sell position to target that $105 - $110.
post media
Giro Lino's avatar
$2.8m follower assets
I simply love this chart. It's powerful. $JPM is bull on equities simply because sentiment is too bearish. Buy when there's blood in the streets. Right?
post media
The Devastation Continues
Here are a ton of stocks at lows and appear to be headed lower:

$JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. - Banks - Diversified - $386.69B

$BAC - Bank of America Corporation - Banks - Diversified - $317.55B

$ASML - ASML Holding N.V. - Semiconductor Equipment & Materials - $257.15B

$VZ - Verizon Communications Inc. - Telecom Services - $221.35B

$NKE - NIKE, Inc. - Footwear & Accessories - $211.96B

$ADBE - Adobe Inc. - Software - Infrastructure - $204.90B

$CRM - Salesforce, Inc. - Software - Application - $187.74B

$PYPL - PayPal Holdings, Inc. - Credit Services - $112.45B

$BLK - BlackRock, Inc. - Asset Management - $106.91B

$WBD - Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - - Entertainment - $58.36B

$ILMN - Illumina, Inc. - Diagnostics & Research - $53.47B

$ADSK - Autodesk, Inc. - Software - Application - $44.78B

$A - Agilent Technologies, Inc. - Diagnostics & Research - $38.87B

$ALGN - Align Technology, Inc. - Medical Devices - $33.79B

$COIN - Coinbase Global, Inc. - Software - Application - $33.18B

$STT - State Street Corporation - Asset Management - $27.92B

$TWLO - Twilio Inc. - Internet Content & Information - $24.68B

$HUBS - HubSpot, Inc. - Software - Application - $20.53B

$SWKS - Skyworks Solutions, Inc. - Semiconductors - $20.04B

$PAYC - Paycom Software, Inc. - Software - Application - $19.25B

$KMX - CarMax, Inc. - Auto & Truck Dealerships - $14.95B

$DPZ - Domino's Pizza, Inc. - Restaurants - $14.26B

$PINS - Pinterest, Inc. - Internet Content & Information - $14.23B

$ETSY - Etsy, Inc. - Internet Retail - $14.15B
post mediapost media
THIS is what i’m talking about, very aesthetically pleasing post, thanks for putting this together 💪🏼
View 4 more comments
Highs & Lows Weekly #7
Commentary on Current Trends
  • There are almost no stocks showing up on the strong short term list. The market is indiscriminately selling almost everything, even the industries that had been holding up well in recent weeks.

  • The weak short term list is more than 10 times larger than the strong short term list. Again, long duration equities (biotech, software, internet, etc) dominate the list. Note also that industries that had been strong in recent weeks are turning negative - Gold, resources, oil and gas, etc.

  • Defensives - Utilities, REITs, Consumer Packaged Goods - remain in strong long term uptrends despite recent near term selloffs. The market has fled into these names as a defensive reaction to a risk off environment.

  • The selloff in debt markets has weighed substantially on financial stocks. The yield curve has flattened significantly, which has led investors to begin selling bank stocks. Also, the recent increase in mortgage interest rates bodes poorly for mortgage origination and refinance at major lenders.

  • Some of the largest and most well thought of companies in the market now sit atop the weak long term trend list. This includes: $FB, $TSM, $JPM, $HD, $BAC, $DIS, $CSCO, $ADBE, and $CRM. The market has finally “come for the Generals” of the market after selling small and midcap stocks for nearly a year.

For more insight into what stocks are trending up/down be sure to check out our latest edition of Highs & Lows Weekly!

Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.