Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 10
Hello friends, I got an update for you, now with a rounded number

I decided to sell $AFRM + $PAYC, and here's my thinking:

  • I get a pretty decent exposure to $AFRM anyways through $SHOP, not only are they a sole processor for Shop Pay installments but are also invested in $AFRM, own about 7% of the shares (Class A+B combined)
  • I recognize the power of $SQ's Afterpay in combination with CApp and Square after I watched Block's Investor Day, it's just one well put ecosystem. Afterpay is also a bit larger in terms of GMV and has superior margins.

My overall plan is to just add to $SQ and $SHOP and chill.

When it comes to $PAYC I recognize the power of Square Payroll and HR solutions in combination with the whole ecosystem especially as they move more into Mid market, that's going to be interesting. Therefore it just makes sense for me to consolidate here.

I'm also selling $ZI $DOCN, no specific reason really, just want to move my capital into my highest conviction names.

Instead I went on a buying spree and got some $QCOM $RBLX $TWLO $SQ $SHOP $COUR $FVRR $HIMS $ADBE and $COIN.

Wrapping up, all $AFRM $DOCN $PAYC $ZI are great companies in my view, but like I said, it makes sense for me to consolidate, especially as I favor optionality over specialization at this point in time, while still maintaining an exposure to those players/spaces without further fragmentation.
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.7m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update '?'
Hey, I've been going through my portfolio once again, as I'm slowly doing the consolidation process, evaluating whether there's not too much of an overlap between my holdings. I think I reached a phase where I don't see anything too weak, but quite a lot of strong performing businesses I'm looking to add to, actually. I'm not saying I won't sell anything moving on, but even if I do it will be solely for the highest conviction add purposes/just better opportunities in the space.

  • I think it's worth mentioning I'm looking to open a position in $ZS, I think it's a tremendous company that fits nicely within my investing themes, mainly in the enterprise and CyberSec space. As I'm going more in-depth, I'll definitely be adding to $MDB which I bought recently, their optionality is just way beyond what it appears to be on the surface and I'm absolutely mind-blown by all the possibilities and diversification they have.

  • I was looking to go deeper into Life sciences/Biotech/Health, but since I'm no real expert there but still I'm very interested in the space and I believe it's the future, I'm going to play the industry through companies like $GOOGL (large investments in all sorts of biotech companies via Google Ventures), $HIMS which I consider more of a technology/commerce company within the health space (telemedicine combined with branded products, many sold as a recurring subscription sort of), and companies such as $MDB and $PLTR which literally offer their software platforms to pharma companies which utilize them for all sorts of stuff such as data & analytics, gene sequencing, ...

So far by doing all this consolidation, I went from 57 to 45 when it comes to number of holdings and expect that number to naturally fall further as those industries consolidate, there's some M&A activity going on in tough cash tight environment and as some business just don't perform as much as I had expected them to do, which will result in further forming of core names I'll be adding to and sticking to long-term.
$HIMS - Healthcare access on your fingertips!
$HIMS is a mission-driven company that is on a mission to make healthcare accessible, affordable, and convenient for everyone.

As we all know, the healthcare system in its current form is broken and needs to be disrupted so that we can increase access to healthcare for everyone and reduce the incredible in-efficiencies rampant in our current healthcare system.

$HIMS brands have stood for de-stigmatization and access. They have been designed to encourage customers to engage with and seek treatment for conditions that are often embarrassing or stigmatized.
$HIMS designed and built their digitally native, cloud-based technology centered around the consumer, and design everything with the consumer in mind. $HIMS platform has websites, apps, telehealth platform, electronic medical records system, pharmacy integration, and mobile accessibility combine to provide consumers with a seamless, easy-to-use, mobile-first experience.

$HIMS has built a comprehensive and vertically integrated solution that empowers people across the country with direct access to qualified healthcare providers and reliable treatments.

$HIMS TAM in their core categories is ~$350B, they plan to expand in adjacent categories and nearly double their TAM over the long term.

Now let's look at their Competitive Advantage:
  • Brand - Consumer-first healthcare brand that has very high Customer and Provider satisfaction(NPS 65+), that is highly trusted.
  • Switching Costs/Customer Relationships - Hims has built a trusted relationship with Gen-X and millennials who will spend a majority of future healthcare spend with Hims.
  • Technology - Full-service vertically-integrated telehealth offering
  • Scalability - Highly extensible business model with expanding unit economics
  • Network Effects - Hims connects consumers to healthcare providers in a very cost-efficient way and will benefit from more scale on both the consumer and provider sides.

As for their financials, they are rapidly growing their revenues and customer lifetime values.

They are at a significant economy of scale leading to improved marketing performance and decreased customer acquisition costs.

What sort of a return/IRR do I expect from $HIMS?
If you use an incredibly conservative 10% 5-year CAGR, I see $HIMS giving us a 25% IRR.
If we assume a 20% 5-year CAGR(still conservative IMHO), we see $HIMS giving us a 45% IRR.
I think $HIMS will significantly exceed all these conservative estimates.

If you liked this post, be sure to Subscribe at: https://www.moderngrowthinvesting.com/
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Not that UK healthcare is perfect, but it fascinates me to see how innovative healthcare businesses are in the US set up.
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
A unique metric reveals past euphoria in the market
Chart of the week is here!

I talk about a unique metric and what's been going on with a few names in the consumer(tech) sector $BARK $CHWY $RENT $WW $HIMS $APRN

Take a look at the pic below but click through to see key takeaways and another chart. 👇🏼👇🏼

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Direct-to-Consumer Superstars
Cut out the middle man and boost margins by selling your product directly to consumers. This sounds like a simple objective to improve a business's operational efficiency but generating DTC sales is no easy task.

This is where brand development pays dividends. By being a strong brand consumers know and trust the consumer now shops directly on the company website. The company website is a safe space. Competitive products are out of sight and out of mind of the consumer. It's not like the battlefield of Amazon where products compete on price and ranking to attract the eyeballs (and wallets) of consumers.

Owning the relationship between the consumer enables a really powerful flywheel too. This relationship unlocks data on consumer preferences and the information needed to target consumers with future promotions. So not only are the higher margin DTC sales allowing the company to reinvest more capital into the business but the data collected allows for more effective reinvestment.

I believe it's fair to use DTC sales as proxy of brand strength. However, there will be exceptions, $AAPL is among the strongest brands in the world but as of 2021 just 36% of their sales were direct-to-consumer (the phone carriers are a very powerful middleman).

Venture capitalists love to fund companies that are digitally native and focus on owning the customer relationship. By being more efficient they can pass the savings on to the consumer and so forth begins their cycle of disrupting incumbents. That's how the story goes for $HIMS but it turns out that in order to grow they needed help from a middleman, Target, as Hims products are now on Target shelves.

This isn't a totally new concept. Before we went to grocery stores there was a milk man who delivered the product directly to your home. Grocery stores are a great example of where the middleman provides value to consumers as it would be a nightmare to go on company websites to order 30+ items every week( Frito-Lay wants you to order your chips directly).

So to wrap this up I'm looking to compile a list of the most impressive Direct-to-Consumer sales stories.
  • What companies currently have impressive DTC sales?
  • What companies are poised to grow their DTC sales?
  • What companies are struggling to grow their DTC sales?
  • What companies are becoming more reliant upon middlemen?

For reference at the top we some DTC superstars in $TSLA & $PTON who are 100% DTC.

A surprisingly high figure from $YETI where 55% of their sales in Q2 2021 were DTC.

A potential transformation in revenue collection methodology from $SMG as close to 10% of sales in their US Consumer segment is DTC. The US Consumer segment focuses on lawn fertilizer so it is feasible that consumers seek to have their yearly fertilizer supply dropped off in the beginning of spring (much simpler than driving to Home Depot to grab a few 30lb bags of fertilizer).
2021 was a great year for me, Thanks for supporting me!
Looking back at 2021, here is a list of some of the best ideas I have written about $BLND $HIMS $SEMR $SMWB $EJFA $ZIP $PCOR $OLLI $JAMF $FROG $SQSP $OLO

Let's Look at these, one by one:

Also, I own all of these, I share my portfolio here - https://moderngrowthinvesting.com/tag/portfolio/

Subscribe to https://moderngrowthinvesting.com to follow my work and portfolio.
Modern Growth Investing Portfolio 12/01/2021
Sharing My portfolio for December 2021(Top 30 Positions - 87.39% of my overall portfolio - Ask Me Anything!)

Business I Own - Percentage
$TTD 8.23
$NOW 5.65
$APP 5.41
$HIMS 4.83
$BRLT 4.58
$AFRM 4.58
$CRM 4.35
$IS 4.22
$ROVR 3.89
$BLND 3.30
$CTSDF 3.00
$ACI 2.77
$MAPS 2.66
$TCNNF 2.56
$VYGVF 2.17
$FROG 2.13
$ZIP 2.12
$DT 2.10
$JAMF 2.09
$ADSK 1.96
$OLO 1.84
$COTY 1.83
$MDB 1.79
$BBLN 1.74
$SMRT 1.53
$SEMR 1.36
$TVAC 1.18
$ENNV 1.18
$FMAC 1.18
$OCA 1.17

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How many positions do you have any what is your process for tracking them? Do you pay closer attention to larger weighted names?
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