$UBER doesn’t have great long term prospects
The reason I say this is because Uber is only in the rideshare, food delivery, and freelance trucking business.

Lately, they’ve opened their app into becoming a one-stop-shop for buying train tickets and as of lately, hailing a taxi.

But their autonomous vehicle business, that was sold to Aurora. Their air taxi business was sold to $JOBY with the idea that Joby Aviation will utilize the platform.

Even with that tiny provision from Joby Aviation, the ride in robotaxi service from $GOOGL and $GM threaten the rideshare business model altogether.

Right now, $LYFT $GRAB and all the other rideshare and food delivery businesses are struggling to find workers because the high fuel costs don’t justify working those gig jobs in general.

As much as I think Uber is a cool company, I just don’t see the business becoming the empire that it’s founder, Travis Kalanick, dreamed of.
A couple things in regards to Uber's latest earnings report
$UBER reported their Q4 2021 earnings report last Wednesday. While the reaction to it seemed minimal, after seeing articles like "Uber's business is over the pandemic slump" caught my attention.

In the article, here are a couple of positives they noted from the earnings report:
  • revenue growth of 83% YoY
  • despite the easing of restrictions, their delivery business continues to remain a vital part of people's lives
  • the company has 118 million monthly active users on its platform, which is their highest amount to date (27% growth YoY)
  • $892 million profit for the quarter itself (2nd most profitable quarter)

For context on the profit, how $AMZN reaped most of its profits from the $RIVN IPO is similar in effect to how $UBER reaped most of its profits from the $GRAB IPO.

Overall, Uber's profits are narrowing from 2020.

Now, let's check out the numbers.

From their financials, there are a couple of things to note:

  1. Overall, the company is growing fast
  2. Their delivery business continues to grow even as the pandemic restrictions subside
  3. The Freight business is gaining fast momentum and has already achieved significance in terms of the amount of revenue it generates

Now for the adjusted EBITDA numbers:

From the looks of it, Uber's delivery business finally made a profit. At the same time, Uber's Freight business is reducing its losses while growing its revenues.

Taking the bigger picture, the Delivery business was able to use economies of scale to break a profit. As for their Freight business, the economies of scale continue to look favorable. Hopefully, they will break even in the near future.

If I had to sum up the performance of the quarter, I say that there's a lot to be optimistic about.
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I am a former $UBER believer and owner but I’m not anymore. The reason being, it’s an “ok prove it” story to me now. The stock did jump on the news that you highlighted above but then tanked when they opened their mouths at the investor day. What they said that struck me was “we will be cashflow positive hopefully by Q4” the statement sounds benign in of itself but it highlights their “adjustments” to EBITDA. You can’t claim profitability without being cashflow positive. You can be cashflow positive and not be profitable though.. so they kinda shot themselves in the foot by saying the quiet part out loud. Then again.. I’m admittedly jaded since they were my worst performing position over the past few years and I was dumb enough to believe them initially. With as much revenue as they bring in it’s a red flag that they can’t convert any of it to the bottom line without massive accounting adjustments.
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