$BGRY $NLCP $FIGS Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Earnings season is coming to a close for me. I may have a few more of these posts but they'll become a bit more spread apart (I'll probably do one for $DOCS, $RSKD, $SNOW, $PATH, $OKTA, and $CRWD in the next couple weeks before they report. Follow if you want to see them and comment about what I'm overlooking or getting wrong!
Berkshire Grey, Inc. ($BGRY) - Reporting earnings this morning (5/12)
This is a loooong term play on the robotics automation market. I think there's very little that could make me sell this position before it hits the 5-year mark in my portfolio. Not that I think it'll be a market-beater by then. I just don't think the company's execution can be properly evaluated before then. For Berkshire Grey, I am looking at three things:
  • Revenue growth - Obvious
  • Balance sheet - Don't be on the verge of bankruptcy
  • Backlog - The indicator of whether or not companies are buying into the product
Current position:
Total cost basis: 73rd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.09 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 2
Annualized return: (84.4%)
Annualized $SPY return: (9.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (19.7)
NewLake Capital Partners, Inc. ($NLCP) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/12)
Is this a mini-$IIPR? They are certainly tracking that way, at least early on.
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • It'd be great if management began breaking out Property Expenses in their Operating Expense breakdown (like IIPR does).
  • Can revenue keep growing >100%?
  • Property count and rentable square feet needs to keep growing.
  • Stay at or really close to 100% leased.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 37th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.55 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (55.8%)
Annualized $SPY return: (22.1%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (34.5%)
FIGS, Inc. ($FIGS) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/12)
I love what this brand is doing. My wife is in the medical industry and anecdotally confirmed how loves FIGS clothes are.
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • Management is guiding for 32% full year revenue growth, which would be a deceleration. Getting a good jump in Q1 will hopefully be an indicator of a full year beat.
  • Gotta stay FCF positive.
  • Can international revenue keep growing at triple digits?
  • I know the demand for scrubs will continue to be there. What about non-scrubs revenue? It accounted for 13.5% of 2021 revenue (an all-time high) and grew at 61% in 2021. Can that continue?
  • I really wish management would updated investors CAC.
  • I also wish management would update investors on Net Revenue per Active Customer and Average Order Value on a quarterly basis instead of annually.
Current position:
Total cost basis: 23rd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.93 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 3
Annualized return: (63.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: (10.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (17.8%)
April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:


Visit highsandlows.substack.com
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Stanley's avatar
$2.9m follower assets
First stock trades for May, 2022 - $FIGS (dca down from IPO), $SWK (dca down from initial purchase), $SCHD (purchase from accumulated dividends).

What’s on your plate today?
Beaten-down 2021 IPOs
I love avoiding new initial public offerings for their first couple of earnings reports as a publicly-traded company -- but even more so, I love revisiting them after this 6-12 months.

Life as a newly public company is rough as expectations from analysts are wonky, and management is adjusting to a new lifestyle of increased scrutiny.

With this in mind, here's a list of 2021 IPOs I'm watching that have traded down since going public.

$RSKD Riskified -74% | $PATH UiPath -67% | $COOK Traeger -66% | $BIRD Allbirds -65% | $MQ Marqueta -64% | $CPNG Coupang -62% | $OLO Olo -56% | $COIN Coinbase -53% | $APP Applovin -51% | $EXFY Expensify -44% | $USER UserTesting -42% | $BMBL Bumble -42% | $WRBY Warby Parker -40% | $AFRM Affirm -39% | $WEBR Weber -37% | $NU Nu -31%| $RBLX Roblox -30% | $SEMR SEMrush -27% | $FIGS FIGS -27% | $MNDY Monday -13% | $DOCN DigitalOcean -11% | $CFLT Confluent -8% | $GLBE Global-e Online -6% |

Curious to hear what you all may like the most from these?

Out of this list, four are part of my Core 34 group of holdings that I aim to add to the most here in 2022.

Have a good weekend, friendly humans.
With of the four from my core 34 do you like the most?
42%Coupang
31%Roblox
15%DigitalOcean
10%Global-e Online
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/02/22
Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
SBC is a scam to adj. EBITDA and you're getting diluted
Stock-based compensation (SBC_ has gotten out of control with some companies that utilize the line item top boost adj. EBITDA for profitability but can also dilute you.

Prime example is $TWTR. Market Cap >1.5x since IPO while price only up ~2% in the same time

The link below shows this weeks "Chart of the Week" for the following names


The numbers are quite shocking. If you're interested in receiving content like this, hit the subscribe button (it's free!).

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Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
CGC Q1'22 Quarterly Letter - Can you relate?
Cedar Grove Capital released its Q1'22 letter last week and wanted to share it with you all here.

While the quarter was a challenging one, we ended the quarter with 18% in cash and are strategically positioned to continue the rest of the year deploying dry powder in opportunistic areas.

Our holdings are included below - would love anyone's thoughts on them if they have any to share.

Current:

Closed:

LT's avatar
$2.7m follower assets
2021 Lessons Learned: Trading/Speculation Turned Buy&Hold
I learned a lot in 2021 - had many losers with sizable losses $VMEO $IAC (call) $GEVO $ME $CTXR
I'm forgetting some
$FIGS turned out to be a loser but I sold at a gain

But a handful of trades made up for the losses, nearly double $AABB $GRTS $GME (short)
Those were the main ones

Lesson: a couple winners can make up for many losers. Luck also plays a big role, especially for short term speculation

Given up a big chunk of 2021 gains through 2022 already. We'll see how we end the year though, I think I'm decently positioned. Majority of my portfolio is in profitable growers at reasonable valuations. Have decent portion allotted to potential multibaggers

Profitable growers at reasonable valuation: $GOOGL $PUBM $FB $EVVTY $LEAT
This portion makes up 79% of my portfolio

Unprofitable potential multibaggers: $TUEM $SLGC $NAUT
This portion makes up 21% of my portfolio
Hi @logicalthesis, welcome to Commonstock! Thanks for sharing some of what you've learned recently. I like that you're seeing learning opportunities in both your winners and losers!
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
For new investors to Commonstock - read below!
Good afternoon!

For those of you that just joined Commonstock or followed me, welcome!

A little about me, I run a L/S US equities portfolio, called Cedar Grove Capital based out of NYC, focused on the consumer(tech) and cannabis industries.

I'd highly recommend you check it out 👉🏼 https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/

What you get when you subscribe to our newsletter:
  • Weekly-ish Chart of the Week emails where I break down a chart into a few summarized key points to help inform you or keep you up to date on certain topics (ex. How Much is Each "Subscriber" Worth?)
  • Deep dive analysis into an industry that has significant growth potential (ex. Vertical Farming: Don’t Sleep on this Opportunity)
  • Trend I’m Watching which dives into a trend that peeks my interest enough to look into companies that can either benefit or be hurt by such trend (ex. Coffee Prices Getting Squeezed)
  • 1-2 monthly deep dives into a stock I either have a position in or am considering taking a position in. These posts are not short (avg. word count ~3,000), and include many aspects including interviews with users, product reviews, and my model output for valuations (ex. FIGS: Not the lululemon of Healthcare )
  • Personal Thoughts where I express my opinions about a certain topic related to finance, the stock market, or investing. (ex. Uh, Tesla is Worth How Much Now?)
  • Full transparency of my portfolio so you can track my performance and weighting within my portfolio. This can be used, to an extent, to help formulate your own portfolio management.
  • Quarterly updates on my portfolio that highlight my buys and sells, if any, as well as fund commentary and thoughts going forward.
  • BONUS: All my posts will be accompanied by an audio option (2022 onwards). For any reason you cannot read the posts, I’ll record a ‘read aloud’ of the same article so you can listen.

Companies that I've publicly published research on are below:


Companies that I've held/hold positions in but did not provide public research are below:


If you're interested in getting detailed coverage of the space, deep dives into single names and industries all while accompanied by an audio version, I highly recommend you click below and sign up for the newsletter. It's completely free! 👉🏼 Newsletter + Website
Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.3m follower assets
Need stock new ideas? Check below
Good morning everyone!

For those of you that don't know or just followed me, I run a L/S US equities portfolio focused on the consumer(tech) and cannabis industries.

I'd highly recommend you check it out 👉🏼 https://cedargrovecapital.substack.com/

What you get when you subscribe:
  • Weekly-ish Chart of the Week emails where I break down a chart into a few summarized key points to help inform you or keep you up to date on certain topics (ex. How Much is Each "Subscriber" Worth?)

  • Deep dive analysis into an industry that has significant growth potential (ex. Vertical Farming: Don’t Sleep on this Opportunity)
  • Trend I’m Watching which dives into a trend that peeks my interest enough to look into companies that can either benefit or be hurt by such trend (ex. Coffee Prices Getting Squeezed)
  • 1-2 monthly deep dives into a stock I either have a position in or am considering taking a position in. These posts are not short (avg. word count ~3,000), and include many aspects including interviews with users, product reviews, and my model output for valuations (ex. FIGS: Not the lululemon of Healthcare )
  • Personal Thoughts where I express my opinions about a certain topic related to finance, the stock market, or investing. (ex. Uh, Tesla is Worth How Much Now?)
  • Full transparency of my portfolio so you can track my performance and weighting within my portfolio. This can be used, to an extent, to help formulate your own portfolio management.
  • Quarterly updates on my portfolio that highlight my buys and sells, if any.
  • BONUS: All my posts will be accompanied by an audio option (2022 onwards). For any reason you cannot read the posts, I’ll record a ‘read aloud’ of the same article so you can listen.

Companies that I've covered are also listed below

You’re naturally doing what commonstock promotes - transparent advice. I love how you show your holdings to demonstrate skin in the game. Way to go!
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Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.