Bear Market for the S&P, Finally, Maybe?
The $SPY inching closer to the level that signifies a bear market, but a surprise interest rate cut from China’s central bank is leading to a bit of a relief rally this morning…

No major economic data releases today. Earnings from $DE and $FL before the open at 0930.

It’s hard to see how this rate cut by the PBOC will do very much. China’s economy is in heaps of trouble but even that is secondary compared to the concerns here in the west.

More on that in today’s briefing and podcast, available here:
The Apple of the agriculture business - JohnDeere $DE

Founded in mid-19th century, original John Deere built the steel plow and transformed farming. 180 years+, co bearing his name is undergoing digital transformation that is revolutionizing the industry.

🧵...

$DE is 🌎 leading mfr of agricultural equipment
They've built platform biz, much like Apple achieved w/ iPhone, but 4 agri biz. integrated offering of 🌎 class h/ware & s/ware, locking customers into DE ecosystem w/ consistent user interface and AI, computer vision & autonomous

John Deere can also unlock the value of their customer’s farm related data by using machine learning and other analytical technologies to offer insights and custom guidance, such as recommendations for new fertilizer seed and chemical treatments.

To create network effects around their platform, Deere has invited 3rd parties to build on its platform to better serve customers with agriculture related apps and services. To continue the Apple analogy, its like an Appstore for the agriculture industry.

In addition to their technology advantages Deere has other ways to differentiate in an oligopoly-based market, including being one of the world’s most valuable brands and its vast worldwide dealer network.

$DE has close to a two centuries worth innovation track record. With a lower yield and inconsistent annual dividend raises, John Deere is closer to a growth stock than dividend grower. However, the combination of growth and a steady dividend make it attractive.

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My full dividend growth portfolio here

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Samsara - $IOT - Launches Integrated Solution with John Deere - $DE - to Digitize Farming Operations
With this new integration, data from Samsara Vehicle Gateways on support vehicles, including vehicle location, heading, speed, and fuel levels, is available on the John Deere Operations Center™ map, an online farm management system that enables access to farm information anytime


Happy Monday... I hope you’re having a good extended weekend.

This week on the Weekend Edition:

  • Market Recap: Defensive takes the lead, Gold;
  • Chart of the Week: The Inventory-to-Sales Ratio;
  • Earnings- General thoughts, $WMT, $DE

Great insights on the inventory trends. Do you think it's mostly due to demand slowing down? Or an easing of the supply-chain woes they've been facing?
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