$CURI is (almost) unbelievably cheap
Over the past year since CuriosityStream went public the stock has been on a fairly steady ride. Straight Down.

While I am not a shareholder currently I have been interested in the business for a while. Right now I just want to go over some of the numbers.

First is the market cap. At one point this was a $1b+ company. Not anymore.

The second is the cash on hand. It's almost the whole market cap.

Add the rest of the current assets and its trading for less than the total current assets.

Total debt is not really an issue either and $CURI can easily cover all of its debt.

Unfortunately Cheap is not an investing thesis. While I like the underlying business the fact that they still haven't turned a profit since inception despite having relatively low content acquisition costs is not great.

Glad I didn't start a position yet. Was planning to around $6 so looks like I dodged a bullet.
post mediapost media
Strat Becker's avatar
$4.5m follower assets
The Truth About Truth Social
Digital World Acquisition ( $DWAC ) is planning to merge with Trump Media & Technology Group. While the ability of this merger to close is questionable as highlighted by great reporting by @kerrisdalecap, a scenario where the merger closes could have over 95% downside. PT: $1.88

TMTG claims it will have over $3 billion in annual revenue from its streaming service TMTG+ by 2026. However, the company will not have enough cash to fund necessary content additions to achieve scale and will be operating in a commoditized industry

The belief of having 40 million TMTG+ subscribers is a fantasy and believing they have pricing power greater than Disney+ is just as much of a folly. If operations commence they will likely be as unsuccessful as CuriosityStream ( $CURI )

Truth Social also has minimal odds of success. Its algorithm promotes harmful conspiracies such as claims the Bucha Massacre was perpetrated by Ukraine, and feeds are flooded by bots. Advertisers will not have high ROIs and risk association will prevent onboarding/create low CPMs

While the SPAC presentation projects billions in revenue, I believe the company will have revenue of less than $200 million in 2024. The high Capex nature of TMTG+ will also quickly bleed the $1 billion PIPE and force massive dilution or debt financing to avoid insolvency imo

In conclusion, I see a scenario where the DWAC/TMTG merger occurs as no different than the last time Trump was the face of the public company. In my opinion, the best-case scenario is the deal being blocked and the stock falling 75%

Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 21st-25th)
Two heavy-hitters reporting next week: Nike and Adobe. Really interested in seeing what Nike has to say about supply chains after the recent events. Carnival Cruise and Nio should also be interesting. Full list of companies below.

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FRI:
post media
ParrotStock's avatar
$246m follower assets
Any chartist here see an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming on $CURI?

Debating on closing my position with todays bounce, or letting the chart play out some.
ParrotStock's avatar
$246m follower assets
The World of Ad Tech
Those who follow me know I love Ad Tech! ❤

The ads you see on your screen take quite the circuitous route to get there, so let’s break it down.

Publishers

A publisher provides the capability and inventory that allows advertisers to run ads on their site (CTV, Mobile, Website, App, etc.). Publishers earn money by displaying ads.

Popular FinTwit Publishers:

  • ROKU ($ROKU): Hardware & Software streaming platform with content from multiple providers including AppleTV, Peacock, The CW, CBS, NBC, PBS Kids, etc.
  • Curiosity Stream ($CURI): Streaming platform focused on docu-series.
  • Twitter ($TWTR): Social media platform
  • Pinterest ($PINS): Visual discovery platform
  • FuboTV ($FUBO): Sports streaming platform
  • Enthusiast Gaming ($EGLX): Video game & E-Sports publisher (large Gen Z audience)
  • Google ($GOOG/$GOOGL) & Facebook ($FB): Commonly referred to as “walled gardens”, because they manage all their ad inventory internally with their own services.

Supply "Sell" Side Platforms (SSP)

An SSP is a advertising technology (AdTech) platform used to coordinate and manage the supply and distribution of ad inventories. SSPs help digital media owners and publishers sell digital ads in automated auctions.
They enable publishers to optimize yield by simultaneously connecting their inventory to multiple ad exchanges and DSPs.

Popular SSPs:

  • Magnite ($MGNI): Formally The Rubicon Project, recently acquired SpotX; forming the worlds largest independent sell-side Ad platform.
  • PubMatic ($PUBM): Empowers independent app developers and publishers to control and maximize their digital advertising businesses. It enables advertisers to drive ROI by reaching and engaging their target audiences in brand-safe, premium environments across ad formats and devices.
  • Tremor ($TRMR/$TTTPF): formerly Taptica, an Israel based company engaged in digital ad solutions which leverage video, native, and display technology to reach users. They focus on video ads and brand stories.

Ad Exchange

An ad exchange is a digital marketplace that enables advertisers and publishers to buy and sell advertising space, through real-time auctions; most often used to sell display, video, and mobile ad inventory.
Some large exchanges include Amazon Publisher, PopAds, AppNexus, AOL’s Marketplace, Microsoft Ad Exchange, and dozens more…

Demand Side Platforms (DSP)

A DSP is a 3rd party software that is used by advertisers to buy mobile, search, and video ads from a marketplace on which publishers list advertising inventory. A DSP allows for the management of advertising across many real-time bidding networks, as opposed to just one, like Google Ads (commonly referred to as a “walled garden”).
Of note: traditionally DSPs predominantly work with ad agencies, although some companies are changing that approach.

Popular DSPs:

  • The Trade Desk ($TTD): Largest independent DSP providing Ad pricing “Supply” to advertisers.
  • AcuityAds ($ACUIF): DSP platform “Illumin” focused on self-service ability of the advertisers, potentially cutting out the ad agencies & their 30%-50% cut of ad fee’s. Additionally, the platform will give small local business’s the opportunity to efficiently and affordably advertise in their area (something not available to them currently).
  • Digital Turbine ($APPS): DSP platform adopted by many mobile operators & OEMs primarily focused on App downloads (pre-loads) for their clients.

Ad Agencies

An advertising agency is a professional service firm hired to conceive, produce, and manage advertising for their clients.

They plan, design, place, and supervise the advertisements and advertising campaigns of advertisers for optimal ROI.

Some of the largest ad agencies include WPP Group in London, Omnicom Group in New York, Publicis Groupe in Paris, Interpublic Group in New York, and Dentsu in Tokyo.

Advertisers

If you have a service, event, or product; you need to get the word out to potential customers.

What’s important to an advertiser?

  • Target audience: An advertiser wants to make sure the intended audience is seeing their ads.
  • Branding: It’s important for companies to ensure they maintain brand image. You wouldn’t want a Tito’s ad popping up on an article about drunk driving 😬.
  • Conversion: Ultimately, an advertiser wants to convert their ads into sales.

There are as many advertisers as their are companies; a few popular with FinTwit from different industries:

  • HomeDepot ($HD)
  • Etc. Etc. Etc…

Programmatic Advertising

Programmatic advertising is the process of buying and selling ads with software, and publishing those ads contextually based on complex algorithms. Most online advertising now is done programmatically through real-time bidding.

Real-time bidding advertising takes place (wait for it…) in real-time. You specify who you want to reach with your ads and how much you’re willing to spend, then a bidding war takes place between you and all the other advertisers trying to reach the same audience.

The whole process takes just 50 milliseconds! 😲

The New Reality

  • Cookies are going away.
  • Advertising is moving more and more dollars to CTV.
  • Companies are working on ways to seamlessly insert advertising into our viewer experience without looking like they’re advertising to us.
  • AI is allowing for more of the work to be done automatically, which is lowering the barrier for entry (Companies won’t need $50k-00k advertising budgets just to get started).

All the companies I mentioned (and many more) are working to solve these problems. The goal for investors is to find the companies who will do it faster and better than the rest.

I believe Ad Tech will outperform the broader market as the economy continues to open up. And I will continue to look for companies within the sector I believe can out perform.

I hope this gives you a better understanding of the industry as a whole, and I look forward to expanding on some of these individual companies in the future.

P.S. There should really be a good Ad Tech ETF out there! If you are starting one, give me a shout! 😊

You can see prior newsletters, and sign-up for future issues below. 👇

🦜

Portfolio as of Today and Plan Going Forward
Since I can't get my brokerage to sync correctly, I'm just posting my portfolio as of today. Very nice day, today, as of this writing. Up about 5.26% I'm still down from highs of early February.

Long Holdings

  • $PINS - 9.9% - hodl in the puke traded a little to reduce basis
  • $SKLZ - 7.3% - added bigtime in the puke
  • $PLTR - 6.4% - added bigtime in the puke
  • $FSLY - 5.9% - re-entered in the puke, bad timing, about even today.
  • $TMDX - 5.7% - reduced just before puke and regret it. Long.
  • $ADYEY - 5.0% - hodl
  • $ONDS - 5.0% - added bigtime in the puke
  • $FSRV - 4.8% - reduced a little at beginning of puke, and regret, trying to add under basis
  • $DMTK - 4.7% - added 1/3 in puke just above basis.
  • $SE (have Mar 2023 75 Calls)- 4.7%
  • $GHVI - 3.6% - added too early, in puke.
  • $CURI - 3.5% - added aggressively in puke. Have puts I hope I get!
  • $U - 3.2% - got back in this just before puke and doubled in puke. I over 2x'd this position last year. (70's -> 160). Fun to see at reasonable price again!
  • $ZYXI - 2.7% - new position during puke!
  • $MWK - 2.7% - new position during puke!
  • $JMIA - 2.4% - new position during puke! AWFUL timing, green position.
  • $UPST - 2.4% - new position during puke! AWFUL timing, red position.
  • $OZON - 2.2% - hodl
  • $CCIV - 2.2% - new position during puke! Added on Friday via Puts.
  • $PRCH - 2.0% - added to position during puke. Great timing.
  • $LFMD - 1.9% - hodl, green position as of today.
  • $FTOC - 1.9% - added in puke.
  • $TSIA - 1.5% - added in puke.
  • $SFTW - 1.4% - added in puke
  • $IPOE - 1.3% - hodl
  • $APPH - 1.2% - added back in the puke. Great timing at $18
  • $MGNI - 1.1% - re-entered in the puke! Great timing at $37
  • $FSR - 0.9% - I don't know why I bought this. Selling calls on it LOL.
  • $SBG - 0.8% - reduced in the puke to buy other stonks. Bad deal.
  • $IPOF (have Dec 17 2021 7.5 Calls) - 0.8% - traded a little to reduce basis in puke, I think this is low risk here.
  • $TBA - 0.5% - just bought this last week. I like the IronSource deal.
  • $VRM (have Jan 20 2023 30/25 Calls) - 0.5% - I reduced before earnings and then after hours when awful earnings came through. I traded mostly at profit, but these calls are red.

Options
I am holding these options which I sold earlier, expiring on Friday (they are all profitable as of today):

  • $SKLZ Mar 19 2021 30 Put (ok to increase position here)
  • $FSR Mar 19 2021 25 Call (ok to lose position)
  • $U Mar 19 2021 105 Put (ok to increase position here)
  • $LFMD Mar 19 2021 20 Put (ok to increase position here)
  • $CURI Mar 19 2021 17.5 Put (ok to increase position here)

Moves Today
  • I added $FSRV, $CCIV (was happily put stock at $28.50 on Friday), $MWK

  • I exited my small $LOTS position today at an 8% loss, I just don't have enough conviction in it when I go to the site, haha, despite having some pretty good numbers on paper. I was sucked in because it seemed so beaten down. Not sure why anyone would go with them over $CVNA or $VRM. I guarantee it goes straight up from here :)--you are welcome.

Plan

I am bullish in 2021, especially on these holdings. I plan to reduce many of my lower conviction holdings in the short/medium term. I am not planning to hold all of my SPACs over the longterm. I think that many of these names will further rally from where we are. There is just so much money in the system and increasing, and the selling on many of the quality names I've entered were very extreme IMHO. I did most of my buying during the puke in late Feb, early march. I didn't time much perfecty, but it looks like I was approximately correct in being a net buyer.

Going Forward

Many of you that know me well, know that I have a business in the Information Security space. I intend to focus on that, as I've been growing the team, and it's not just me by myself anymore. I sincerely hope commonstock can get the automated tracking down. I don't want to spend any time updating this.

I will update probably one more time when my Looooooong portfolio is done. It is likely going to be aligned with my top positions, 3% and greater. But, I change my mind a lot!
Short review on why Curiosity Streams ($CURI ) is one of my top growth picks.
-Global streaming market set to grow 20% annually through 2027
-Offers content in science, technology, history with the goal of informing, enchanting, and inspiring its audience (picture below)
-Signs contracts with universities/institutions to build streaming libraries on their behalf, with many other revenue streams (picture below)
-On the board sits president of georgetown university, Vice provost at stanford university, and many others
-Laser focused on nonfiction, educational offerings which is completely different from other platforms
-Factual content cost 10% of scripted drama to produce so subscriptions could be as low as $3 a month (and are through youtubeTV)
-Plans to expand from 3,000 to 12,000 nonfiction titles over next 5 years (netflix has 500 nonfiction titles)
-Revenue is set to jump 119% YoY to $39 mil
-Through 2023 it expects 50% compounded annual growth rate
-Subscriptions should jump 35% CAGR over next 3 years (already has 13 million)
-Founder is John Hendricks founder and chairman of Discovery (created discovery into a $28B company) he has bought a shit ton of shares, most of the management team is former execs of discovery as well
-I personally see 0 competition in this area (if there is share please), and I think there is a HUGE market for knowledge junkies and this is just starting to pick up

Resistance around $20 a share so judge your own buy in position

Anything I missed?


post mediapost media
Thanks for the write-up. I agree with everything you said, but I tried a lot of their videos and they seemed...kinda boring/lame. Didn't seem to be a whole lot that I couldn't get off of YouTube? Was there something I am missing? Totally open to your thoughts, just wasn't super impressed by the content...
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