The industrial real estate industry is looking to enter a downcycle
According to Wired, $AMZN is looking to cut back on warehouse space as its projections of high online retail sales didn't materialize.

Many of the leases that Amazon made during the pandemic with warehouse providers are now looking to be cut. The recent retail sales report shows that consumers are paying more for items; not buying more items. Even if consumers might still be sitting on a higher pile of savings, inflation is eroding the real value of people's savings.

E-commerce fueled the surge in demand for warehouse space. As the industry endures a slowdown, demand for warehouse space will decline. Many of the pre-leases that e-commerce companies have signed with developers are looking to get cut in the process. Developers will continue to finish the construction of warehouses, only to find that their project will finish at a time when there's a huge glut in the supply of warehouses.

$PLD $STAG and other warehouse stocks will see their pricing power erode. As for the cold storage warehouse providers like $COLD, I do see them handling the supply glut better because demand for cold storage is still high.

Using Dow Theory, the declining demand for warehouse space correspond to a freight recession. Companies are cutting back on transportation services because they are ordering less inventory. $FDX $UPS $JBHT $XPO are other trucking and parcel delivery companies are going to be impacted negatively by the decline in e-commerce. UPS fell after their earnings because of that reason.

For now, I plan on holding $STAG because I enjoy the monthly dividends I receive from it. I'll be monitoring their earnings and reading the earnings transcripts to see how conditions in the warehouse REIT space are holding up.
Like everything tied to retail and consumer demand, bad short term outlook for sure. I’m holding a small amount of $STAG and $PLD. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drift lower but I like them long term so I don’t see the point in selling to buy back a little lower. I think demand will come back before it gets really painful. I do see some positives here too. Amazon will stop building their own warehouses now and maybe even sell some as leasing will provide more flexibility in dealing with inventory cycles. The second positive is that as other e-comm businesses scale they will fill in the spaces left by Amazon. Obviously this is dependent on demand coming back but if you think e-comm is still a growing market, warehouses will be integral to that long term, and this is just a temporary bump in the road. Now though the retail and e-comm companies will be more hesitant to try to build their own warehouses as it’s added risk to manage during down cycles. The warehouse as a real estate sector is now a fortified sector for real estate companies.
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Are any income investors buying the dip on $COLD?
$COLD is a REIT that specializes in cold storage warehouses. Unlike warehouse REITs, cold storage REITs are more niche and the dynamics of this market are more favorable for established players. Plus, this REIT is a pure-play on the (in their words) temperature-controlled supply chain.

Building a cold storage facility takes a lot longer to build. At the same time, they're more energy-intensive. Since fewer firms want to be in this business, the industry acts more like an oligopoly. With that, pricing power is huge in this industry.

The pandemic made investors enthusiastic about this industry as demand for cold storage will surge from the vaccine deployment. Even after COVID, experts still see demand for cold storage is high.

Reason? The rise in online grocery delivery.

The rise in e-commerce created immense demand for warehouses. Since most items didn't need to be stored in coolers, demand for cold storage wasn't high back then.

With grocery delivery becoming a bigger part of everyday life, there's going to be more demand for cold storage facilities. Many foods and beverages that we consume on a daily basis are perishable. They can't sit on a normal shelf like most items that people buy on Amazon.

And I bet many of these "dark stores" will take place in these cold storage facilities.

Since $COLD currently offers a 3.35% dividend yield and is part of a booming industry, it could be a great time to get in for the long run. And with the industry growing fast, I can see the dividend being hiked at a faster rate.
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