Weekly Watchlist Results

$SPY +4%
$QQQ +4.18%
$DE - No Trade - Continuation to the upside
$DKS +5.3%
$SBUX - No Trade - Continuation to the upside
$COIN +18.28%
$SHOP +15.16%
$CRWD - Hit Price Target 1 at $169 from prior weekly watchlist
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Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke on a Coinbase Buying Spree
$SHOP CEO Tobi Lutke has purchased 13,130 shares of $COIN this month, with his most recent purchase falling on August 23. On that day, he purchased 5,177 shares at an average price of $71.94 per share.

All of Lutke's purchases have been enacted through a prearranged 10b5-1 plan that was established last May, hinting that more purchases may be on the way.

Coinbase is currently in the process of shifting towards a subscription based model, much like Shopify.

CEO Brian Armstrong added:

"We’re realizing that trading fees… [are] still gonna be a big part of our business ten years from now, even twenty years from now, but I’d like to get to a place where more than 50% of our revenue is subscription and services."

Subscriptions and services currently make up 18% of Coinbase's revenue, up from 4% during 2020.
$COIN Earnings
Some key takeaways from reading the $COIN earnings report. I believe $COIN has had one significant positive development and two negative developments from the last earnings call. Disclosure: I remain short Coinbase.

On the positive side, Coinbase cash burn was not nearly as bad as I expected. They posted a loss of $1.1bn, but that included lots of non-cash expenses. While the non-cash expenses are “real”, it does not affect their liquidity.

Their balance sheet shows a decline in cash from $6.1bn to $5.7bn. They have done a better job in rolling in expenses than I thought they would and they lowered their guidance for expenses for the year.

On the negative side, the biggest red flag is them admitting that the “Crypto Winter” is a Coinbase problem and not a Crypto problem. Crypto industry transaction volume declined 3%, but Coinbase’s declined 30% showing a major loss in market share!

Exchange data shows daily average volume this quarter is down ~30%. This is after two straight quarters of a 30% decline. Revenue should decline even more (as the take rate continues to decline) and more costs need to be cut.
post mediapost media
While I am no $COIN fan I find it interesting that despite trading volume falling 30% Monthly Transacting Users only fell 2% from 9.2m to 9m in Q2.

It seems that $COIN is keeping retail users on the platform but having a hard time to actually get them to trade.

On top of that a loss of $69m from crypto investments. What a junk company.
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Overheard on Reddit: “Took out a 27k loan, went all in on BBBY”

Is WallStreetBets back?

Plus:
  • Inflation data
  • $AMZN M&A
  • Soft chips
  • Soft oil
  • $COIN concerns

In 2019 $AMZN pledged to be net zero by 2040.

Its carbon footprint has grown ~40% since then.

We're gonna need more carbon credits...

Plus:

  • Pelosi


  • Earnings


  • 8 recession indicators

OMG that’s pretty far off the mark for predictions. Just saying it to be in the crowd with Apple and Google. Not sure how you take over the world AND be carbon neutral🤣
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