Brett Schafer's avatar
$27.2m follower assets
Podcast episode: Disney
Today we released an episode for CCM+ subscribers on Disney $DIS

This is a complicated media conglomerate, and I bet we missed a few small details (I realized after recording we forgot to mention $CMCSA owns 33% of Hulu). However, here is what I believe a Disney thesis boils down to:

  • Will the theme parks continue printing money?
  • What does streaming look like a few years out?
  • How do sports rights play out in the U.S?

Also, there is some China risk to consider as well.

I used to think that the amount they could charge for theme park admission was capped... (I went to school very close to a Disney theme park and many students would buy passes— I always thought that at a certain point Disney just wouldn't be able to charge more). But it appears that the parks have incredibly robust pricing power, keeping up with inflation pretty easily.
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A Weekly Update on Special Situations
  • Kaltura $KLTR confirmed receipt of an unsolicited proposal from Panopto.

  • Spirit $SAVE terminated its merger with Frontier $ULCC, agreed to buyout from JetBlue $JBLU.

  • Vnet Group $VNET MBK Partners reportedly considering making a bid above $8/share proposal VNET previously received.

  • ATN International $ATNI reportedly hired Goldman Sachs and is exploring a sale.

  • Radware $RDWR reportedly a takeover target for CrowdStrike $CRWD.

  • Vizio $VZIO subject of takeover interest from Comcast $CMCSA.

  • PayPal $PYPL gained on reports that Elliott Management took a stake in the company.

  • 3M $MMM announced plan to spin-off its health care business.

  • Labcorp $LH announced the spin-off of its clinical development business from its core lab and diagnostics business.
Dividend Portfolio Update
As you may know, I write many updates, economic analysis, and opinion pieces on my website, you can read my most recent full portfolio update here. However, it's been a while since I've shared an update on Commonstock so let's do one!

To date, I have invested $10,550 into the account the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $10,615.85. That’s a total gain of 0.62%. The account is up $241.52 for the week which is a 2.33% gain.

We started building this portfolio on 9/24/2021 and, even with this rough last week, when compared to the S&P 500 we are outperforming the market so far! Within that same timeframe, the S&P 500 is down -7.3% whereas our portfolio is up 0.62%! I love tracking my portfolio against a benchmark like the S&P. The above chart comes from Sharesight which makes portfolio and dividend management a breeze!

We added $200 in cash to the account this week. The trades made this week will be broken out below

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week and the blue ones are positions that I reinvested dividends into. The positions that we added to increased our annual dividend income by $11 at a yield of 4.45%.

This week we received three dividends: $0.74 from McCormick ($MKC), $4.24 from Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF ($XYLD), and $2.03 from Comcast ($CMCSA).

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically. The Coca-Cola dividend was actually received last Friday, but got reinvested on the following trading day.

Dividends received for 2022: $197.83
Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $220.75

Below is a breakdown of my trades this week!

July 25th
  • McCormick ($MKC) – dividend reinvested
July 26th
  • Ecolab ($ECL) – added 0.2 shares at $157.75 (short term trade)
  • $XYLD – dividend reinvested
July 27th
  • ETRACS 2x Levered ETF ($SMHB) – added 1 share at $8.78
  • Ecolab ($ECL) – sold 0.2 shares at $160.10
  • $SCHD – added 0.13775 shares at $72.60 (recurring investment)
  • $XYLD – added 0.230044 shares at $43.47 (recurring investment)
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – dividend reinvested
July 28th
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – added 1 share at $39.26
  • Intel ($INTC) – added 1 share at $39.76
  • Ally ($ALLY) – added 0.25 shares at $32.28
July 29th
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – added 1 share at $37.92
  • Intel ($INTC) – added 1 share at $35.42
  • Ally ($ALLY) – added 0.35 shares at $32.89

This week I mostly focused on $INTC and $CMCSA as I indicated in the last portfolio review. Both had some rough earnings misses which gave some good buying opportunities. I’m not too concerned about $CMCSA’s earnings, most segments of the business performed as expected, however economic contractions affected the business more than anticipated. $INTC is a different story. Though they were also affected by the economy, revenues were way lower than expected and guidance was not peachy at all. This poor performance was to be expected while they build out the foundry business, but the severity of it was not. I’m still bullish on the long term for both, hence the buys at the end of the week.

Next week I plan on keeping my eyes $INTC again for the ex-dividend date coming up, and $ATVI, $AFL, $SBUX, $AMGN, and $O for their earnings reports as potential buys.
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$AMGN and $AFL are inching towards the top of my watchlist for my January birthday buys! Will be interesting following your positions the next few months

Which brokerage are you using? Interested in the fractional shares
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Weekly Market Recap
I write weekly market recaps on my website, click here to read the full article and continue downward for the recap!

"I’ll be the first to say I’m relieved that it is the weekend after how exhausted the market made me feel this last week. We had a huge week of news that was ultimately matched with some big gains for the week that padded the upside for the month of July. These gains were driven in part by short-covering activity and capital going back into equities following the worst first half of a year in decades.

Nearly 200 companies reported their earnings results for the June quarter, the FOMC held their July policy meeting, the economic calendar featured the Q2 GDP Report, President Biden held a call with China’s President Xi Jinping, Senator Manchin surprised all with a reversal of position and reached an agreement with Senator Schumer on the provisions for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and Congress passed a $280 billion bill designed to increase the country’s competitiveness with China ($52 billion of this goes directly to semiconductor manufacturing capacities). Whew, was that a run-on sentence?

This week we saw weakening consumer spending across the board highlighted with a handful of earnings and data releases. The PCE Price Index showed the highest year-over-year reading since 1982 at a reading of 6.8%. We also saw the 3rd straight drop in consumer confidence and a weak New Home Sales report for June. For earnings, we saw warnings from Walmart ($WMT) that highlighted fuel and food inflation decreasing spending on general merchandise, Best Buy ($BBY) warned of further softening in demand for consumer electronics, and Stanley Black & Decker ($SWK) also warned of general weakening consumer demand.

Seems like a lot of bad news for consumers, but it did not shake the market. Investors were laser-focused on better-than-expected results and/or guidance from big tech ($GOOG, $MSFT, $AAPL, and $AMZN). A market drop in Treasury yields and the idea that weak economic data would steer the Fed away form an overly aggressive path on future rate hikes kept the market strong.

The Fed was key to this week’s action. It raised the fed funds rate on Wednesday by 75 basis points as expected. Chair Powell, did an applaudable job at his press conference afterwards, walking a fine line between needing to be tough on inflation while also conceding that the pace of rate hikes are likely to slow. He didn’t rule out another 75-point hike at the next meeting, claiming that the data would dictate the decision, indicating that the guidance from the Fed that we have become used to is likely to slow or stop. Expect data to be the leading factor in how policy is decided now on a meeting-by-meeting basis. This effective step-down from an aggressive rate hike approach was enough to rally the market post meeting on Wednesday that continued through the end of the week.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the futures market is pricing in two rate cuts in the first half of 2023. I don’t believe Powell said anything that supports this thesis.
Despite seeing the 2nd consecutive negative quarter of GDP (-0.9%), All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 ended green this week ranging from 1.6% to 10.3%, led by the energy sector. All sectors ended the month positive as well ranging from 3.1% to 18.9%, led by consumer discretionary. A rally in Tesla and Amazon forged the way for these gains for the consumer discretionary segment which is still down 20.4% for the year. Overall, all major indices were up for the week and the month.

Next week is fairly mild on potentially impactful items in the economic calendar. We have some PMI and employment numbers to look forward to.

My bearishness on the last week was incorrect, however I’m sticking with the bear mindset for the short to medium-term. The Fed may have reached the levels at which they want to maintain rates, however, I believe the economic effects of the previous increases that got us to these levels have yet to fully felt. The effects of rate hikes take time to materialize and the economic data that we watch is often a month or even a quarter behind. I find it hard to believe that the highest levels of inflation in recent decades are not going to simply disappear in two quarters. The current market seems overly optimistic in my opinion.

Maybe I’ve just been spoiled by buying so many cheap dividend stocks in this market that I want things to stay bearish! Regardless of the way things move, we will buy structurally sound companies that pay safe dividends and have a promising future. We did this last week with some buys in $INTC and $CMCSA to name a few. Read the portfolio update here."
James Andrews's avatar
$17.3m follower assets
What I did this week
A reasonably quiet week trading wise but a solid week for the portfolios with some nice gains across the board. Monthly wrap up to follow later this weekend. I have a 10 year reunion for a team sports championship we won in 2012 so unlikely to be in any condition to crunch the numbers today or tomorrow :)

Income Portfolio: Opened new positions in $DVN and $LCII . Collected dividends on $ROP $OZK $AFG and $CMCSA . Trimmed $PCAR with a view to being all out over the next few weeks. Sold all $JEF for a negligible gain.

Growth Portfolio: Added $SWAV to my portfolio holdings. Up 25% on my $ETH.X purchase last week. I will be keeping a close eye on this and have set a tight trailing SL.

Speculative: Nil activity once again but $MARA had a nice bounce as did $NOTV
Erick Mokaya's avatar
$103.9m follower assets
$GOOGL just has to be the top pick for the next 40dys. So lock up on this stock. I need the advance's when it stops $2k in September start
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Dividend Portfolio Update
As you may know, I write many updates, economic analysis, and opinion pieces on my website, you can ready my most recent full portfolio update here. However, it's been a while since I've shared an update on Commonstock so let's do one!

To date, I have invested $10,110 into the account (WOOT WOOT WE PASSED 10K), the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $9,887.69. That’s a total loss of 2.20%. The account is up $142.95 for the week which is a 1.47% gain.

We started building this portfolio on 9/24/2021 and when compared to the S&P 500 we are outperforming the market so far! Within that same timeframe, the S&P 500 is down -12.48% whereas our portfolio is down -2.20%! I love tracking my portfolio against a benchmark like the S&P. The above chart comes from Sharesight which makes portfolio and dividend management a breeze!

We added $120 in cash to the account this week. The trades made this week will be broken out below.

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week and the blue ones are positions that I reinvested dividends into. The positions that we added to increased our annual dividend income by $9 at a yield of 4.42%.

This week we received $6.72 from two dividends: $0.49 from Coca-Cola ($KO), $6.23 from Best Buy ($BBY).

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically. The Coca-Cola dividend was actually received last Friday, but got reinvested on the following trading day.

Dividends received for 2022: $179.42
Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $202.34

Below is a breakdown of my trades this week!
July 5th
  • Best Buy ($BBY) – dividend reinvested
  • Coca-Cola ($KO) – dividend reinvested
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – 0.5 shares bought at $39.26
  • Lowe’s ($LOW) – added 0.125 shares at $175.84
July 6th
  • $SCHD – added 0.1399 shares at $71.48 (recurring investment)
  • $XYLD – added 0.233198 shares at $42.88 (recurring investment)
July 8th
  • Intel ($INTC) – added 0.25 shares at $37.96
  • AT&T ($T) – added 2 shares at $20.86

We also bought some $SSSS and sold it the next day for a ~5% gain. This is not something I do often so I won't provide the dates and prices for those orders.

This was sort of a slow week on top of an already shortened week. It was a pretty positive week driving by the tech and consumer discretionary sectors as discussed in my weekly market review, therefore there wasn’t too many amazing opportunities to buy down. I mainly just took this week to add a little bit into some of my favorite down positions and positions on ex-dates.

Next week I plan on keeping my eyes on Lowe’s, Cummins, and Altria for the reasons below:
  • Lowe’s ($LOW) for its ex-date coming up on July 19th.
  • I’ll also be looking to add to Cummins ($CMI) which I’m down 4% on right now. Their yield is 2.89% which is slightly above their 5-year average and their P/E is at 10.8 which is about 20% underneath the 5-year average. They have a 29-year dividend streak with 16 years of consecutive growth. I’m anticipating a dividend increase on their Q3 payout and thus would like to add earlier now while down.
  • I’ll also be watching Altria ($MO) to add to next week. I’m currently down 12.3% on this stock. Its yield is juicy right now at 8.67%, roughly 2% higher than its 5-year average. This company has great financials and the JUUL headlines don’t concern me too much due to the company’s limited stake in it. Similar to $CMI, I’m expecting their next announced dividend to be increased and I want to add early while down now.
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Erick Mokaya's avatar
$103.9m follower assets
Interesting comparison on some Communication Services stocks:
Current NTM P/E vs March 23, 2020 COVID low

Alphabet Class A $GOOGL, 18.6, current vs. -0.5x
Alphabet Class B $GOOG, 18.7, -0.4x
Meta Platforms $FB, 15.2, -0.4x
Disney $DIS, 21.3, 4.9x
Verizon $VZ, 9.4, -0.7x
Comcast $CMCSA, 11.6, 0.9x
AT&T $T, 8.3, 1x
Netflix $NFLX, 17.2, -37.8x
A Weekly Update on Special Situations
Covetrus $CVET received $21 / share proposal from CD&R and TPG to acquire remaining outstanding shares.

Griffon $GFF initiated review of strategic alternatives.

Kohl’s $KSS said final bids will be submitted in the coming weeks; skepticism regarding a deal is growing amid poor financial results.

Spirit $SAVE bidder JetBlue $JBLU announced a $30 / share hostile tender offer.

Electronic Arts $EA rumored to have had takeover discussions with Amazon $AMZN, Disney $DIS, Apple $AAPL; held discussions with Comcast $CMCSA regarding merger with NBC Universal.

Hemisphere Media Group $HMTV shareholder Edenbrook Capital sent letter to the board expressing displeasure with sale price.

MiMedx Group $MDXG released a presentation in response to activists, highlighting its standalone value creation plan.

Republic First Bancorp $FRBK chairman Hill removed from role, filed lawsuit against company.

Turtle Beach $HEAR entered into cooperation agreement with Donerail Group.
Your newsletter and compiling all this stuff to share is always incredible! Thank you for the work you’re doing
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