End of Week Trading Update
Added $TMUS short sell: $132.01 - day trade - bought to cover at $130.62 for 1% gain.
Bought to cover $NIO short sell at $18.00 - 3% gain.
Bought to cover $CCL short sell at $18.00 - 2% gain.
Still holding $FSLY and $PUBM short sells over the weekend.
$FSLY Entry: $18.32
$PUBM Entry: $23.20
88% cash.
Ending this month up 8.58% 🎉
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Cruise Companies are still dealing with inflation issues
In the beginning of the month, $CCL reported that they had their busiest booking week in history. Meanwhile, throughout all industries, businesses are dealing with rising labor costs, higher fuel prices, and other things with rising costs.

The cruise industry is in a precarious spot. They can't easily pass on rising costs to customers. Even if they choose to raise the prices of alcoholic beverages and specialty dining options, customers can just choose to cut down on their consumption and opt for the free dining option that cruises offer.

Like airlines, cruise companies have options to hedge against rising fuel prices. $RCL already has theirs hedged, but for $CCL, they don't have any hedges.

One bright spot for Carnival is that they are leading the adoption of LNG-powered cruise ships, which run on cleaner-burning liquified natural gas. This helps Carnival obey the regulations of IMO 2020, which requires ships to run on cleaner-burning fuels. At the same time, LNG is cheaper than gasoline and the engines that run on LNG have fewer moving parts than engines that run on gasoline. However, the lack of fueling depots and the heavy capex spending that comes with adopting LNG-powered ships is expensive.

We shall see how well these cruise companies do amid high inflation and high bookings. Will consumers still consume like normal when they're on vacation?
$CCL - Carnival Corp.
Carnival Corp shares are up after the business recorded its best booking week in company history. The cruise line announced Monday that the week of March 28-April 3 had a double-digit increase over the previous record 7-day booking total.
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I like Carnival a lot, especially as a customer... but I'm really concerned about the debt they took on through the pandemic. I've traded them a few times with good luck, and I could see them running a bit on good news. But I'm concerned the share price is going to stagnate until they run off some of the debt.
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$CCL Swing
Another strong consumer services play. As long as he doesn't close below 17.83 he will be strong. We do not want to create a lower low. Longs anywhere below 18.49 look good.
20c 04/14
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Good morning contrarians! Fed chair Powell did his best to spook markets yesterday. It even worked for a bit, but now it looks like stocks have resumed their ascent. If you’re keeping score at home it’s been a little more than seven months since Powell last claimed inflation would be transitory…

It’s a pretty slow day today: Couple of Fed speakers. Earnings from Carnival Cruise Lines ($CCL) and later Adobe ($ADBE). What war in Ukraine?

By the way, those Nike ($NKE) earnings we mentioned yesterday? The Barron’s contrarian indicator came through again as Nike topped estimates and the stock rallied by more than 5%.

Full briefing and podcast available here:
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Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 21st-25th)
Two heavy-hitters reporting next week: Nike and Adobe. Really interested in seeing what Nike has to say about supply chains after the recent events. Carnival Cruise and Nio should also be interesting. Full list of companies below.





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ParrotStock's avatar
$246m follower assets
Carnival $CCL
I finally got around to looking at Carnival's 4Q earnings report, and there are a lot of things to like.

  • Revenue per passenger up 4% from 2019 (pre-Covid) numbers
  • As of November, 8 of 9 brands with 61% of total capacity was operating with guests aboard, with the remainder scheduled to resume by spring '22
  • 4th Quarter occupancy was 58%
  • Cash from operations turned positive in November, expect "consistent" positive cashflow starting in 2Q2022
  • $9.4 Billion in cash & equivalents, essentially the same liquidity level as last year, with significantly improved cash flow
  • Advanced bookings for the second half of '22 & first of '23 at high end of historical ranges (with higher prices), as compared to 2019
  • Customer deposits increased $360 Million in 4Q21 to a total of $3.5 billion
  • Refinanced $9 billion ($2.6b in the Q) to date, reducing $400 million in annual interest

The biggest factors for me are their existing debt, current liquidity, and cash burn (currently $510m/month).

Based on being back to full capacity in Spring 2022 and consistently cash flow positive by 2Q2022, they should have ample cash on hand to finance operations.

I'm starting a recovery play position here for 2022, where I expect minimal downside remaining, an initial $30 target, and a potential to see $40 again in the coming 12 months. (I don't typically publish price targets, these are rough personal targets that I've decided to share with the community. I will make buy/sell decisions based on market conditions and personal circumstances at the time.)

With Covid (hopefully) on it's last legs, pent up demand reinforced by increase deposits & advanced bookings, and a return to a full fleet; I could see this becoming a popular trade going into next spring.

Starting a full 2% position. Will consider adding on weakness (with no fundamental change), and cutting the trade below $18/share (with fundamental change).

What are your thoughts on $CCL heading into 2022? 👇

Upcoming Earnings Calendar! Dec. 20-25
Hey guys! Still a few notable earnings reports to close out the year! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $MU - Comments on the strength of the memory market. Strong memory market = strong semi-market.
  • $NKE - Insights on their DTC strategy + context on their entry into the NFT world.
  • $CCL - Is the Omicron variant affecting bookings?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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