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Closed some short pos today $EBAY | $C
So hard to hold back trading last month. Glad there are some movements in the account now.
Why did Warren Buffett buy $C?
Is it because of their high dividend yield?

Is it because their dividend growth rate has been aggressive during the past few years?

Is it because Buffett sees Citi's turnaround strategy looking to bear fruit in the near future?

According to a Motley Fool article:

"Citigroup is making the hard but seemingly right decisions in selling these international consumer banking operations...It could also leave a revenue hole at the bank. Additionally, rising expenses have hurt Citigroup's performance and near-term outlook, but it seems that management is finally spending the necessary amount to correct regulatory issues that have dogged the bank for years."

That quote is what I see to be an answer to the third question.

As for the answers to the first two questions, Citi's dividend yield is currently at 4.10%. As for its dividend growth rate, the company went from paying $0.01 per quarter in 2013 to paying $0.51 per quarter in 2022. Though Citi's dividend hike history has been all over the place, overall, the company has hiked its dividend aggressively over the past 9 years.

Here's a link to Citi's dividend history.
That’s one of the three trades I can remember failing recently. Held Citi for 1-2 years of flatline, had to move on. Looks like I should’ve waited another year or two🤣
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retail crowd ❤️ Berkshire
most focused among retail investors
(live estimates past hour)

$C $PARA and $OXY in top 15
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Loyal followers. I think they forget how limited Buffet’s options are now that Berkshire is that big. Buffet talks regularly about how limited their investment options are nowadays.
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Credit Markets and Financial Conditions
There has been a reasonable degree of damage beneath the surface on a stock-level; credit markets, however, have not shown the same degree of uncertainty.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, former New York Fed President Bill Dudley mentioned the lack of cooperation by financial markets; in other words: the Fed isn't seeing the type of sea change it would like to see in order for a reverse wealth effect to kick in.

Just how much the Fed will be able to tighten financial conditions will likely depend on market signals such as the GS Financial Conditions Index and Corporate High Yield OAS.

If we were to look at specific stocks that are highly sensitive to credit conditions: homebuilders, do-it-yourself outlets ($HD $LOW), banks ($JPM, $C, $GS) as well as private equity transactions financed via debt offers -- there are many more.

I hesitate to paint a doom & gloom scenario; it is, however, valuable to keep an eye on the tone of credit markets and be aware of sub-surface dynamics.

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index

Corporate High Yield OAS
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I know @austin recently opened up a $LOW position with a strong case, and has also discussed $HD. I have no skin in the game currently but I think the backdrop conditions of home buying, building/renovating, mixed with recession fears and credit market conditions makes for an especially interesting story.

I feel as though it is either an excellent time to buy these names or a horrific time to buy these names with little in-between haha. Would be shocked at a horizontal move in this sector over the next 12-18 months. Excited to see this one play out
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Stocks patterns post Earnings - Week April 11th
The earnings season starts this week! Here are the reports I will look into and how the stocks performed historically, 1 day after the earnings release.

My favorite earning plays this week are $MS and $BLK.

JP Morgan $JPM - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.6% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.4%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Blackrock $BLK - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.2% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 2.9%
  • % of positive returns = 67% 🟢

Delta Air Lines $DAL - Apr 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.8% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.5%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Fastenal $FAST - April 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.4% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 4.0%
  • % of positive returns = 42% 🔴

Bed Bath & Beyond $BBBY - Apr 13th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -3.0%🔴
  • Average price move = +/- 14%⚠️
  • % of positive returns = 42%🔴

Morgan Stanley $MS - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.5% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 2.0%
  • % of positive returns = 75% 🟢

Goldman Sachs $GS - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -0.4% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.0%
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟢

United Health $UNH - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = +1.1% 🟢
  • Average price move = + / - 3.0%
  • % of positive returns = 58% 🟢

Wells Fargo $WFC - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.7% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 4%
  • % of positive returns = 33% 🔴

Citigroup $C - April 14th before the open
1-day performance in the past 12 quarters:
  • Average returns = -1.6% 🔴
  • Average price move = + / - 2.3%
  • % of positive returns = 25% 🔴
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What to watch for the week of 4/11/22
Are you prepared to take on the markets this week? If not, here is a graphic that I created of some of the most anticipated potential catalysts for the week beginning April 11th. Hopefully this can help you navigate your investing and trading decisions. Feel free to save this post for reference. Let me know what’s on your watchlist in the comments. Follow my page so that you never miss any upcoming scheduled market events. If you find this helpful and would like to view more of my work, consider subscribing to my Patreon. Link in my bio. $SPY $F $WFC $QQQ $ALLY $BBBY $KMX $PGR $C $GS $MS $JPM
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Yegor's avatar
$174.9m follower assets
Quick portfolio update
I wanted to share an update on my current portfolio while I’m working (trying to) on substack post that I’m hopeful to release by Monday.

A few worth mentions are $TWTR $OMAB $DISCK and $C

  • $TWTR as (probably) most of you know that Elon Musk took almost 10% stake in Twitter which skyrocketed the price for me to go from -20-30% to +0-5% which gave me opportunity to trim and add more to $PYPL $SPOT and $MITK . I still like it but EM is a wild card

  • $OMAB I’m trading in and out of (for profit) as I can’t get my self to hold it in my portfolio unless it goes below 50-55 range 🤷🏻‍♂️ I realize I’m just price sensitive when it comes to certain portfolio positions.

  • $DISCK should be becoming WMD soon so keeping dry powder for this one while adding tiny amounts as it goes down.

For $C I have as a sell put option expiring next week into earnings with price or 45. I think it’s cheap and that P/B is getting interesting BUT I also know Citigroup is cheap for a reason and it needs to prove it self in the “turn around play” not touching it via buying stock until below 45.

If you are interested in following my journey follow me on here (commonstock) , Twitter, and my Substack!
Yegor's avatar
$174.9m follower assets
Anyone got or can I guide me to someone who got good/useful Citi $C deep dive / research that’s done after new CEO started so 2021+ ?

Thank you 🙏
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