ESG Kick - 2 Years Later
One of the early "trends" I got caught up in early on in my investing journey was ESG. ESG was popular in the media I was consuming in the summer of 2020, and I particularly remember some podcasts explaining ESG and some positive ESG companies.
I fell so hard for ESG that I tried to add ESG score as a KPI to my Scorecard. I was using CNBC to dig into company profiles to find their ESG score, if any. After a few months, I realized that ESG was incredibly subjective and difficult to get a standardized numeric value.
Nonetheless, during this time period I added a few ESG-focused holdings (based off recommendations from newsletters & podcasts I was consuming as well as CNBC ESG scores).
Here are the 4 companies I purchased in my Taxable account on 7/29/20, and how they have performed in just over 2 years:
Purchase Price: $34.97
Current Price: $37.13
Gain: +6.18%
Current Scorecard Score: 3/6
Purchase Price: $33.68
Current Price: $48.98
Gain: +45.43%
Current Scorecard Score: 4/6
Purchase Price: $56.70
Current Price: $51.74
Gain: -8.75%
Current Scorecard Score: 1.5/6
Purchase Price: $34.17
Current Price: $39.94
Gain: 16.89%
Current Scorecard Score: 3.5/6
The only position I have added to (other than dividend reinvestment) is $CNA.
Additionally, I added $HASI to my Roth IRA when I started it, as it was one of the strongest holdings in my Taxable account at the time.
All 4 of these holdings are less than 1% of my portfolio, and if they remain this low when my 3 year holding period is up this time next year, I will be liquidating these positions. It will be interesting to check back in a year to see if I add any more to these positions or if they fizzle out.
Are there any investing trends you got caught up in? This exercise was definitely a learning experience for me!
Devin LaSarre's avatar
$18.9m follower assets
Quick thoughts on Altria $MO Q2:
Q2 industry cig vols very weak. Prem purchases per trip in-line /w last year, but high gas reducing store trip frequency.

Share stable. Marlboro retail share up q/q .1 from 42.6 to 42.7. Y/y hare of prem segment more impressive, up .5 to 58.1.

Industry oral seg growth down -.5. Disappointing.

But on! growth impressive, with quarterly shipment vol up 57.4% y/y.

on! now holds a 4.9% share of oral tobacco product seg.

Lots of potential, though worth remembering, it's still being heavily discounted/subsidized.

JUUL writedown as expected. Val $450m. Now under 10% threshold to severe N-C, though no sense in doing so currently.

Not much said on $BUD

Not much clarity on the future of $PM IQOS deal.

Not much said on Poda. PMTA roadmap points to years before relevancy anyways.

The overall trend for combustibles persists. Like clockwork.

Total vols down. Prices up. Op Margins up.

Despite cig vols being exceedingly weak, FCF is robust.

Hitting full-year guide questionable? But headwinds may ease in second half 22. Each year, even after paying div, normally sitting on ~$1 bil extra cash. Likely going to BB, but potentially M&A, though the company has expressed specific focus on internal pipeline.

Overall, a rather uninspired qtr, but long-term thesis remains intact. Puff puff.

If you're interested in $MO or the US market + regulation broadly, read this:
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Devin LaSarre's avatar
$18.9m follower assets
Altria $MO Earnings
Altria $MO is reporting earnings Thursday, 7/28.

JUUL? Regulation? Poda? $BUD stake?

I'm more interested in volumes, pricing, mix shift, and retail share.

Whatever keeps this trend looking pretty:

If you're interested in Altria $MO and the US tobacco market with respect to regulation, you'll find a comprehensive look here:
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Their decades of performance is impressive, given the uphill battle they’ve climbed. I smoked for years, so wanted to hold $MO to get some of my damned money back after I finally quit. I eventually sold, but only because my investing philosophy changed when I realized I could outperform my prior dividend method that had included Altria.
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Watchlist - Birthday Buys for 2023
Each year I make Birthday Buys as a way to slowly diversify. With about half a year to go, I decided to update my Watchlist on Commonstock to reflect the companies I am tracking for this upcoming January.
I have a long Watchlist in each portfolio that I rank using the same Scorecard methodology as my active portfolios. This helps me make educated decisions on which positions to add. I use a combination of the Scorecard score, portfolio sector/industry weighting, and existing underperforming holdings in specific sectors/industries.
Below is my current Watchlist and a breakdown on each:

Taxable
I have exposure to all of my target sectors, so future additions are to continually improve portfolio and add great companies.
$DMLP - This is the highest ranked company in my Watchlist at a 5/6. It has outperformed the S&P over the past 3 years, has a P/E under 25, Dividend Yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, and I am underweight in Industrials. One concern is that the current dividend is more than 100% of their FCF. I need to do more research on this company in the next few months to understand it better.
$PENN - I have tracked $PENN for a long time. I am a huge fan of Barstool, which introduced me to the company. Additionally, with the expansion of legalized gaming in the US, I think there is a long runway for this company. $PENN has had a sharp sell off and is at a much more palatable valuation. My current "Sin Stocks" are $CRON and $BUD, which have been less than underwhelming. Therefore, I am looking to add a stronger position to this sector. $PENN scores a 4.5/5 on my Scorecard - has outperformed the market over the past 3 years, but has underperformed recently. Has positive FCF, but no dividend. Has a P/E less than 25, and is an underweight industry in my portfolio.
$COST - $COST is a strong, defensive play. I currently hold $TGT in the Retail sector of my portfolio. $COST currently has a higher ranking in my Scorecard than $TGT with a 3.5 vs 3. This would be an opportunity to incrementally improve. $COST has outperformed the S&P over the past 3 years, has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, and is a company and business I believe in.
Roth IRA
I am continuing to build a balanced portfolio and initiate positions in unrepresented sectors - Consumer Discretionary, Defense, Financials, Healthcare, Sin Stocks and Utilities.
$AMGN - Highest ranked Healthcare company in my Watchlist with a 5.5/6. $AMGN has outperformed the market, has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, dividend yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, and has a P/E under 25. The only thing holding $AMGN back from a perfect score is I have only given it a Medium conviction rating. I will continue to research this company and potentially bump my conviction to High prior to January.
$LMT - Highest ranked Defense company in my Watchlist with a 5.5/6. $LMT has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, has a P/E less than 25, and I have High conviction in this company. The only thing preventing $LMT from a 6/6 is underperforming the market in the last year.
$AFL - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $AFL has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$ALL - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $ALL has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$OZK - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $OZK has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$WM - Highest ranked Utilities company in my Watchlist with a 5/6. $WM has outperformed the market, has a dividend to FCF less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my portfolio. P/E is currently a little high at 34.
If I were to make a gut decision right now, I would be adding $PENN in my Taxable account and $AMGN in my Roth IRA.
Would love to hear from anybody who currently holds any of these companies or has read/written any research on them.
Other alternatives in these industries are welcome as well!
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Where would I be able to read more about your scorecard process? I have been trying to develop one myself to make sure that I really know what I'm buying and am sticking to my strategies (and not, as I call it, buying the new shiny object in front of me).

As for the specific companies, I am a huge $PENN bull for the reasons you laid out, and my background is in the waste industry. While you can't go wrong with $WM, I'd encourage you to look at $WCN as well, as they are some of the best operators in the space, and have a little more room for growth, as they are not treated as one of the big dogs, despite their size. I personally have made my bet with $GFL, but I'm comfortable with less dividend right now and more volatility, because I think they will be able to keep making acquisitions to get to the size of the other big 3 over the next few years.
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Dividend Forecast - Week of 5/30
Good morning!

Below is my incoming dividend schedule for this week and how I will be utilizing the dividends:

Taxable
$BUD - $0.54 per share, $0.55 total, cash
$CNA - $0.40 per share, $1.27 total, reinvesting

Roth IRA
None

Do you have any dividends coming in this week?
Shallow Dive $BUD
In this “shallow dive” we will dive into Anheuser-Busch $BUD, the world’s leading beer producer. Anheuser-Busch produces almost 1/3rd of all beer globally. They have relied on its portfolio of brands and its cost advantages to build its moat.

$BUD has participated in accretive acquisitions to build its portfolio of brands. They add value through cost advantages and improved operational efficiency. $BUD will slow acquisitions as they focus on lowering debt levels, but they already have an impressive portfolio of brands.

Anheuser-Busch brands include Budweiser “The King of Beers”, Bud Light “Dilly Dilly”, and Corona “Find Your Beach”. Each brand has a well-known catchphrase and a massive advertising budget. Drinking is a social event and people want to bring branded products to drink.

Advertising is also a fixed cost and is able to spread the costs across their scale. Other costs such as distribution, raw materials, and packaging are more localized. Anheuser Busch has an industry-leading 39% market share in the US giving them significant cost advantages.

Also, $BUD has dominant market shares in South America and Africa where it has 62% economic interest in AmBev. They can exercise cost advantages and expand margins here as well. In many countries, they have >60% market share like Brazil and Argentina.

Anheuser-Busch does face threats from localized breweries. Many individuals like craft beers, produced by smaller producers. They have consistently taken market share from larger brewers like Anheuser-Busch.

Beer is also losing market share to other types of alcoholic drinks such as seltzers and spirits. IWSR projects spirits will overtake beer as the most popular drink choice by 2030. Many beer companies are innovating bracing for this trend.

$BUD is innovating in the non-alcoholic beer space. In 2021, one of Anheuser-Busch’s brands, Stella Artois, released its first non-alcoholic beer. The parent company had double-digit revenue growth in the non-alcoholic segment.

Would love to hear what others think about Anheuser-Busch!
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From working in the FMCG sector, it is clear there is a lot of momentum building in the non-alcoholic beer space. It will be interesting to see their strategy here. I know there are a lot of small independent startups innovating in this space. Perhaps $BUD will look to gain hold by acquiring the ones that have been successful.
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Portfolio Bracketology - $AAPL is the Champ!
Portfolio Bracketology has concluded and you have chosen $AAPL as your champ! $AAPL beat $VTI 21 - 16 in the final poll results (combined between Twitter and Commonstock poll).

Below is the final bracket:

The bracket was made up of all 55 of my active holdings - as verified here on @commonstock. Seeding was based on total return since initial acquisition date through 2/28/22. Final rankings are based on poll results - ranked in each round by initial seeding.

Here are final rankings of all 55 holdings based off the results of the bracket (Initial in Parentheses):

  1. $AAPL (3)
  2. $VTI (8)
  3. $O (21)
  4. $HD (42)
  5. $VDE (4)
  6. $BAM (11)
  7. $LOW (32)
  8. $TGT (47)
  9. $XLE (5)
  10. $ABBV (9)
  11. $SCHD (16)
  12. $KO (19)
  13. $VWO (20)
  14. $PFE (26)
  15. $SCHB (27)
  16. $PEP (31)
  17. $CMA (1)
  18. $CARR (2)
  19. $DD (6)
  20. $FUN (7)
  21. $RTX (10)
  22. $SCHF (15)
  23. $VEA (17)
  24. $MCD (24)
  25. $VNQ (28)
  26. $LEG (29)
  27. $SBUX (30)
  28. $HAS (40)
  29. $UL (43)
  30. $DIS (51)
  31. $COIN (52)
  32. $CTRE (53)
  33. $RVT (12)
  34. $VIG (13)
  35. $IEMG (14)
  36. $IEUR (18)
  37. $HASI (22)
  38. $PG (23)
  39. $CNA (25)
  40. $BUD (33)
  41. $CL (34)
  42. $HE (35)
  43. $TIPX (36)
  44. $VTEB (37)
  45. $PPL (38)
  46. $HSY (39)
  47. $CSX (41)
  48. $NSC (44)
  49. $LQD (45)
  50. $KMB (46)
  51. $BLV (48)
  52. $EMB (49)
  53. $T (50)
  54. $CRON (54)
  55. $CHWY (55)

Are there any surprises? Anything that stands out to you?

What are your overall thoughts on Portfolio Bracketology?

I had tons of fun putting this together and getting insight into people's perspective and thoughts on these companies holdings!
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That seems rad to me! I’ve never thought of putting your holdings head to head in a bracketed to-the-death tournament before! How do you determine the lineup to begin with?
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Q2 Portfolio Alignment
I do my best to stick to a routine cadence when it comes to investing. I have written about some of my methodology here, if you are interested.

Just like doing routine maintenance on your car, I do routine maintenance on my portfolio. The first weekend of each quarter I review my holdings and make updates to conviction ratings, reinvestment strategy and make any sales to trim positions. This routine alignment ensures I am on my intended path, but is also scheduled, so I don't go off the rails and make drastic changes on a whim.

Some of my rules for my portfolio alignment:

  • Sales - My rule is to trim overweight positions that I have held for 3+ years or sell positions that are <1% of my portfolio after 3+ years of holding.
  • Dividend Reinvestment - Reinvest dividends of S&P beaters in Taxable. Reinvest dividends of underweight holdings in Roth IRA.
  • Conviction Rating - Review each holding and record gut conviction (blind to previous rating)- either Low, Medium or High.

Taxable Brokerage

Sales:
None. $CMA and $VTI were candidates for me to sell, but I do not feel the need to trim these positions right now.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $ABBV - Medium to High
  • $BUD - Medium to Low
  • $T - Low to Medium
  • $COIN - Medium to High
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $MCD - High to Medium
  • $PEP - High to Medium
  • $PFE - High to Medium
  • $PG - High to Medium
  • $RTX - Medium to High
  • $RVT - Low to Medium
  • $SCHD - High to Medium
  • $UL - Medium to Low
  • $VIG - High to Medium

Roth IRA

Sales:
None. Could have trimmed $VWO and $VEA but didn't feel the need.

Dividend Reinvestment (Changes Only):

Conviction Rating (Changes Only):
  • $DD - High to Medium
  • $HSY - Medium to High
  • $KMB - High to Medium
  • $VIG - High to Medium
  • $VNQ - High to Medium

Reviewing my Conviction changes in both accounts, I am definitely leaning more conservative in most areas.

What are your thoughts? Do you do any portfolio maintenance activities? Would love to hear!

Have a great Sunday!
Luka 🦉's avatar
$105.2m follower assets
Dividend Stock #6 🚭 $MO
Hello fellow investors
this is post #6 out of #50, where I introduce you to all the dividend stocks in my portfolio
Today we speak about a sin stock - Altria $MO

Why it is called a sin stock? Cause it operates in the industry of:
🔸Tobacco
🔸 Alcohol
🔸 Cannabis
In fact, Altria's most famous product is Marlboro Cigarettes, which I suppose we are all familiar with.
⚠️ A small disclaimer:
I do not smoke, I consider smoking a very bad habit, and deep inside I hope for a society where smoking is not contemplated. But, a good investment is always a good investment, right? 😂
Altria is a very famous company in the dividend investor world; few stocks had a better performance than Altria, and many got rich thanks to it. $MO pays increasing dividends from 52 years, remarkable.

OK, let's address the elephant in the room 🐘
Is tobacco a dying industry? What's the logic to invest in an industry like that? People are stopping smoking everywhere
That's all true. In the western world especially, there is a healthy way of thinking, and smoke is not cool like it was in 1960. So old smokers are dying, young people are not smoking much, and every year is becoming worse and worse (or technically, better and better if we see from the health point of view).
Even with such a terrible outlook, Altria is increasing revenue year over year, with a stellar profit - how can be?

Cause even if smoking rates are slowly going down, cost savings and price increases are able to keep the revenue up. Anyway, the problem is still there; where this company will be in the next 20 years?
There is a limit to how much you can play with numbers. if your customers are fading away, soon your revenue will too.
For such a reason in the last years, Altria is trying hard to diversity in new/complementary markets.

$MO invested heavily in Alcohol (ABInBev $BUD), Vaping (JUUL Labs), and Cannabis (Cronos $CRON) but with mixed results.
$CRON is still a startup; while revenues are growing they are still losing money, and we are talking about a $1.3B company.. it's a minor investment.
$BUD is a mature company, providing Altria some annual additional cash flow; nothing to say here.
JUUL is the disaster 🤯
Cost to Altria $12.5B, the company is still facing FDA restrictions and bans, losing market share continuously. I believe that entering the vaping world was important, but the price paid was completely out of logic.
But anyway, let's say that the vaping system is helping to offset the combustible smoking decline

So, no nice outlook? For me, the biggest "hope" is represented by IQOS. If you are not familiar, IQOS is a heated tobacco cigarette, raising popularity almost everywhere apart from the US, where it's facing a patent infringement ban 🤦

Anyway, heating tobacco is able to be marketed as "reduced-risk" cause they demonstrate that without combustion, there is a reduction of harmful and potentially harmful chemicals (FDA words)
So going back to Altria stock, is this a good investment? I believe that Altria will be able to navigate the next years pushing on these smoking alternatives they created. I will be more than happy to see a deeper diversification.

At the moment, $MO represents 0.92% of my dividend portfolio, and I have no plan to increase my position anytime soon.
Do you like such posts?
Give it an upvote, and follow me for more.
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Big Week Ahead! (Oct 25-29 Earnings Calendar)
Next week will probably be the most interesting week for the stock market this quarter. The largest companies in the world are all reporting and we'll get a lot of very valuable insights.

Here's what I'm interested in:
  • More context on the slowdown in ad spending from $FB $GOOG and $TWTR. Let's see if these companies are experiencing similar issues to the ones $SNAP mentioned yesterday.
  • Comments on the global supply chain issues from $KMB $MMM $GLW $LOGI and others.
  • A general update from $AMD $TDOC $SHOP and$AMZN.
  • Perspectives on the energy market from $XOM $CVX

Comment below what earnings call you're looking forward to!

Remember you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

MON

TUE

WED

THU

FRI
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