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Doing $BROS boots on the ground research
Line was stupid long. Think I need to buy more shares.
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Might have really good sales momentum, but any concerns about the failure to handle margin pressures and valuation still being very high?
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$YETI $MQ $BROS Earnings: What I'm Looking For
YETI Holdings, Inc. ($YETI) - Reporting earnings tomorrow morning (5/11)

Often unmentioned, YETI is one of my "stable" positions. I don't expect them to return 30% growth year after year. That's what makes 2021 curious, as they had 29% growth. Even the 2nd half of 2020 over the 2nd half of 2019 was just 27.3%. 2021 was heavily driven by DTC sales (35% growth), which has gone from 24% of their 2016 revenue (with the other 76% being wholesale) to 72% in 2021.

  • Where does Q1 revenue fall? YETI is highly cyclical with their Q1 sales being the lowest each fiscal year. On top of that, they're lapping some tough comps.
  • What's the DTC revenue growth?
  • The "Other" segment (one of three revenue segments along with Coolers & Equipment and Drinkware) grew 61% in 2021. Granted, that still makes it only 1.9% of full year revenue. Barely affects the bottom line but I'm just curious what it comes in at.
  • International more than doubled in revenue in 2021. Will that continue?

Current position:
Total cost basis: 62nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.49 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 0
Annualized return: (15.4%)
Annualized $SPY return: 7.7%
Annualized $QQQ return: 2.9%

Marqeta, Inc. ($MQ) - Reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon (5/11)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Total Payment Volume is a key indicator, obviously. Over $111B flowed through their company in 2021, 85% above 2020. It goes without saying that number needs to keep growing rapidly.
  • They recently announced their new RiskControl solution, "a comprehensive product suite to help its customers better optimize their card programs and take control of end-to-end risk management" to combat card fraud. I love this. Build out a suite of tools to make your network more sticky.
  • Need to see concentration risk start dropping. 90% of their TPV settled through Sutton Bank in 2021, down from 96% the year before. Need to keep that going down. Additionally, 69% of their revenue in 2021 came from Block ($SQ). That's a great customer but if that agreement, which is due to expire in March 2024, isn't renewed, Marqeta will tank. Keep bringing on new business and expand existing relationships.
  • It'd be nice if management began releasing additional KPIs like customer count, customers generating >$100,000 in revenue, etc. At least management gave the DBNER on the conference call for 2021 full year results (they said it was a remarkable 175%).

Current position:
Total cost basis: 72nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.43 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (87.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (26.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (42.3%)

Dutch Bros Inc. ($BROS) - Reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon (5/11)
Ooooh boy, do I love coffee. I still haven't tried Dutch Bros. yet but I will be in a month or so when I make my next trip up to Wine Country in California!

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Company-operated (co.-op) shops is where it's at. They're moving away from the franchising model (existing franchisees can open new shops but they aren't taking any new franchisees). Revenue has grown >60% for co.-op shops the past 2 years. That needs to continue.

  • Same-shop comps have been all over the place due to COVID. 2021 was 9%. Not sure that can continue. I'll be watching to see where this lands.
  • Did they hit their Q1 goal of opening 30 new shops and will nearly all of them be co.-op shops? From the guidance section of the Q4 earnings press release: "Total system shop openings are expected to be at least 30, of which nearly all shops will be company-operated."
  • Dutch Rewards membership count. They launched it in early 2021 and ended the year with over 3.2MM members. Strong loyalty will keep this chain thriving and membership to Dutch Rewards will be a great indicator of that.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 48th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.29 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (8.3%)
Annualized $SPY return: (25.3%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (39.9%)
Paul Cerro's avatar
$18.4m follower assets
SBC is a scam to adj. EBITDA and you're getting diluted
Stock-based compensation (SBC_ has gotten out of control with some companies that utilize the line item top boost adj. EBITDA for profitability but can also dilute you.

Prime example is $TWTR. Market Cap >1.5x since IPO while price only up ~2% in the same time

The link below shows this weeks "Chart of the Week" for the following names

The numbers are quite shocking. If you're interested in receiving content like this, hit the subscribe button (it's free!).

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$BROS solid follow through so far. Didn’t add but am sitting W/ my position from last Tuesday.
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Don Irwin's avatar
$7.2m follower assets
Took a starter position in $BROS this morning. Stores here in Phoenix keep having to move because of the long lines. That coffee must be good!
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