BRCC

BRC

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-$7.95 -50.83%
Black Rifle Coffee Co. $BRCC has a large social media audience
I was surprised to see that this coffee chain has a larger social media audience than $LULU $PTON and other better-known brands. Interestingly, a significant chunk of their audience comes from Facebook, showing that their demographic audience is a lot older than that of other brands (since older people use Facebook more than Instagram).

At the same time, Black Rifle Coffee Co.'s Youtube and Tik Tok audience is quite large. This company is probably doubling down on viral marketing compared to other brands.

This large audience could help the company one day rival $SBUX in the US.
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just throwin this out there,I think that an older audience is more likely to stay loyal to a company as well. There's no quality to starbucks (opinion) people drink it because everyone else does.
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Strat Becker's avatar
$19.3m follower assets
Black Rifle Coffee Sued for Stock Manipulation
Three months ago I wrote critically about $BRCC. I zoned in on its CFO, whose last role ended with him being sued for stock manipulation and lying to investors about the health of the business, as well as the CEO and co-founder for his role in propagating a toxic workplace environment for those on the content side of the business.

While the stock is down 50% since my short report detailing a $9.5 price target was published, the stock first soared to over $34 per share at its peak in March and April. According to an open letter and lawsuit from 1791 Management, this rise in the stock was done illegally and orchestrated by the company with ill intent for shareholders to line the pockets of insiders. The open letter specifically cites Iverson as potentially coming up with the idea:

"We would not be surprised if the original idea came from your CFO, Greg Iverson, who was the subject of a securities fraud class action lawsuit alleging he participated in "artificially inflating" Overstock's price while he was their CFO."

To those who did not research the company deeply, this would come as a surprise considering the sell-side analysts who initiated coverage around the de-SPAC claimed that the management team was "uncharacteristically seasoned for a new public company" as claimed by Roth Capital.

The management team may be uncharacteristically seasoned, but it seems to be in regards to ripping off investors rather than running a successful business.


You can read my original short report highlighting major issues here: https://dueyourdiligence.substack.com
Strat Becker's avatar
$19.3m follower assets
$BRCC Earnings Flop
$BRCC earnings report showed its core DTC business has slowed to no growth and that management cannot effectively control costs.

The stock is now down almost 50% since my report highlighting major issues facing the business and went below the $9.5 price target I modeled earlier today.

While my price target has been lowered since publishing, the risk/reward to be short is no longer as dramatically appealing as it was when I first released my analysis. My updated end of 2023 price target is $7.5 at this time

April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:


Visit highsandlows.substack.com
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$36.4m follower assets
CGC Q1'22 Quarterly Letter - Can you relate?
Cedar Grove Capital released its Q1'22 letter last week and wanted to share it with you all here.

While the quarter was a challenging one, we ended the quarter with 18% in cash and are strategically positioned to continue the rest of the year deploying dry powder in opportunistic areas.

Our holdings are included below - would love anyone's thoughts on them if they have any to share.

Current:

Closed:

Strat Becker's avatar
$19.3m follower assets
Margin of Safety on a Short Idea
I just wanted to re-share an original post I made on $BRCC a while back. While the stock is up since my report was published, the core business has decelerated more than expected to just 2.9%, something I believe they will not be able to materially reaccelerate. Furthermore, the sales and profit outlook on the physical store business have been revised to the downside, and the sell-side consensus no longer expects the company to be profitable by the end of 2023 as it initially did under two months ago.

While the wholesale business may have upside potential, it in no way justifies the stock trading at over 12x 2023 sales without profitability in my opinion. It's times like this where it's important to not let price action within a month force a sentiment change and evaluate the long term picture. In this case I merely see a stronger margin of safety established for a thesis that was already sound.

There are a bunch of wall street adages for this kind of situation.........and all are bullish, e.g. don't marry your stocks, don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend etc.
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$36.4m follower assets
Cedar Grove Capital Q1'22 Investor Letter
Hi all,

For anyone interested, Cedar Grove Capital will be releasing its first investor letter next week for Q1'22.

This letter will encompass our holdings, position sizing, returns, my thoughts for the portfolio going forward and select commentary for certain positions.

Click the link below to subscribe and get it when it comes out. cedargrovecapital.substack.com

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