The Paradox Of Love Stocks $BMBL $MTCH
Here's something funny. Or perhaps tragic. Or both.

If you look into these now multi-billion dollar dating app businesses, you'd notice they make money on premium and paid features - but for them to generate revenue, they need you to first keep using those apps.

In other words, they're financially incentivized by you searching for love, but not finding love. If you find love, they're losing you as a customer.

This has to be really bad for society.

Free markets lead to competition, and in order to compete, one needs to follow financial incentives to build shareholder value. As much as the Zuck harps on about human connection, Facebook and Instagram have become very profitable dumpster-fires of tik-tokified perpetual scroll addiction content.
Its a good point, but when you consider that only 15% of Tinder users ever pay for something on the app, there is still a decent portion of expansion there; if they can execute. Moreover, they have a lot of scope for penetration in Asia. The fact that people churn when they find love is well established; but so too is the fact that American divorce rates are... 50% haha. New customers right there.
View 2 more comments
My August Returns Are In!... And The Good Trend Continues
Retirement Portfolio
In August, I opened two new positions in $NET and $PCOR. I added to three times to $MKL , $TYL, $MCD, and $WM as part of my 401k DCA and added to no other positions. Another relatively quiet month. I also added to $JPM, $AAPL, $SBNY, $COST, $O, and $SBUX via DRIP. I exited $MTCH and sold 32% of my shares in $BMBL.

My retirement portfolio was down 2.54% in August but that was less than my benchmark SPY portfolio (down 4.41%) and benchmark QQQ portfolio (4.51%). I'm now down 37.40% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 16.52% and QQQ benchmark at 21.72%.

My best performing retirement positions YTD:
  • $SWAV is up 96% YTD
  • $EGIO is up 17% YTD
  • $WM is up 14% since I started buying a couple months ago

My best performing retirement positions in August:

My top 10 positions now make up ~35% of my portfolio. The top 6 remain in the same order of $MELI, $AAPL, $AMZN, $F, $GOOGL, and $SHOP. $SWAV jumped up from 9th to 7th after a great month with great earnings with $NVEE, $SIVB, and $COST rounding out the top 10.

Looking forward to September, I'm contemplating exiting my $SQ position. I'm turned off by Jack's comments and his insistence on $BTC.X being the be all and end all. I don't mind the crypto exposure but the Bitcoin only hardline is narrow-minded in my opinion. If you made me czar, I'd actually just have Square exit their crypto entirely and focus on what they're good at.

I'm also considering exiting $MMM in my 401k and replacing it with one of $ABBV, $BEP, $DEA, $HSY, $MKC, $MTN, $TGT, $TROX, $UNP, or $UPS but I need to research them first before deciding.

Taxable Portfolio
In August, I only added to $DT. No positions in this brokerage pay a dividend so there was no DRIP and I did not exit any positions.

My taxable portfolio had a second great bounce back month, up 9.56% after being up 13/67% in July. My benchmark SPY portfolio was down 3.64% and my benchmark QQQ portfolio was down 4.18%. I'm now down 30.15% YTD compared to my SPY benchmark at 14.84% and QQQ benchmark at 21.43%.

My best performing taxable positions YTD:
  • $TMDX is up 172% YTD for me. Wowsers.

  • $MSP with a 39.49% return YTD - RIP as is had such a great return because it was acquired.

  • That's it. None of my other 14 positions are positive. Whomp whomp.

My best performing taxable positions in August:

My top 10 positions continue to make up ~90% of my portfolio as I only have 14 positions in this brokerage. The top 10 remains basically the same with $SNOW, $TMDX, $ATZAF, $SILK, $DT, $LMND, $NCNO, $CPNG, $OM, and $BIGC.

Looking forward to September, I already added to $ATZAF as my monthly add. I don't expect to make any other moves but we shall see.
post mediapost media
What I did this week
What I did this past week was enjoy a long overdue holiday with the family. A week in the mountains, great weather, snow falling. Watched the little 'uns learn to ski, and renewed my own enjoyment of the sport once again. The muscles and bones are feeling every day of my 54 years now though :)

Income Portfolio: Opened a new position in $HRL . Increased holdings in $DVY and $OZK . Collected dividends on $KMI $OKE $TXN $AOS and $HTGC .

Growth Portfolio: Opened new positions in $CELH and $SSO . Cut losses on $HALO and $BMBL. I still like both of these and will revisit another time.

Speculative: Sold all $MANA.X for a small gain.
1 of 6
My $MTCH $BMBL $PCOR $NET trades
These may be famous last words but I don't believe Match will be a market beating stock over then next 5-10 years. Margins have been worsening since each year since 2018, paying customers and revenue per paying customer has been declining QoQ, and there's now a growth-by-acquisition feel which I never am a fan of. At this point, I feel Bumble has a better chance of exceeding market return overs the next 5-10 years then Match does and I also feel the new positions I put the Match and Bumble money towards ($PCOR and $NET) are far more likely to be market beating positions.

Match Returns
Time held: 3.45 years
Total / annualized return: 5.14% / 1.84%
Total / annualized $SPY return: 37.31% / 11.59%
Total / annualized $QQQ return: 62.41% / 18.32%

On Bumble, I took advantage of buying the dip. I picked up additional shares in early March at $16.72/sh. I sold those shares at $34.58/sh (this trade didn't map over to Commonstock) to put towards $NET and $PCOR. I'm still cautiously bullish on Bumble and will be watching their Bumble growth closely.

For my new position in Procore, I see a high margin SaaS business (in an industry that desperately needs this type of company) with a lot of operating leverage ahead, accelerating growth in their large (>$100k ARR) customers and strong but not spectacular DBNRR and DBGRR. I don't expect them to growth revenue at 35-40% every quarter but I think 15-25% is reasonable for the foreseeable future. Their likely will be valuation compression as revenue slows but over the next 10+ years, I think they'll do just fine.

Metrics I track on each non-core holding buy:
P/S - 14.6
Forward P/S - 10.5
PSG - .26
P/FCF - Negative
P/GP - 18
Rule of 40 - 28%

We all know about Cloudflare. Revenue growth YoY exceeding 50% for 8 consecutive quarters now is usually the headliner. I think they'll be FCF positive, or really close) in their FY24. Like Procore, they have operating leverage ahead of them and hopefully start pulling those strings a bit soon. A DBNRR of 125% in this recent Q, up from 119%, and management has a stated goal of getting that to 130%. They're also growing their largest customers at an incredible rate still (71% in 2021 which makes 5 years of growing >$100k customers at >50%). I'm watching headcount to make sure they don't hire just to say they hired. Employee growth grew at 36.5% in 2021 which was their slowest growth since data is available (2017). I already own shares in $OKTA, $ZS, and $CRWD and with the importance of cybersecurity and the likelihood of that continuing, I have no problem adding $NET as well. As many people have said, if a company needs to cut costs, the odds that they cut their cybersecurity expenses will probably be low.

Metrics I track on each non-core holding buy:
P/S - 31.8 (whew)
Forward P/S - 19.6
PSG - .39
P/FCF - Negative
P/GP - 41
Rule of 40 - 41%
Top Gainers Today
Visit highsandlows.substack.com to see more
post mediapost media
Does Match ($MTCH) have an industry problem or a Match problem?
Tim Beyers asked that question on a recent Motley Fool Money episode when discussing Match's poor Q2 earnings. With Bumble ($BMBL) reporting this afternoon, we'll get some insight into if Match has unforced errors here or if the app dating industry as a whole has entered a new, slower growing stage.
Does Match have an industry problem or a Match problem?
54%Industry Problem
45%Match Problem
11 VotesPoll ended on: 08/11/22
Personally, the idea that if they’re successful, their customers no longer need them, turns me off immediately. I want sticky customer acquisition; they seem to be the exact opposite.

With this many people in the world, I’m sure their business will do fine. Just not investment worthy IMO.
View 6 more comments
Steve Matt's avatar
$18.7m follower assets
My July Returns Are In!... And They're... Good?
I'm still getting annihilated in both of my portfolios but less annihilated than a month ago!

Retirement Portfolio
In June, I opened zero new positions. I added to $MKL twice, $TYL twice, $MCD twice, $WM twice, and $IIPR. Relatively quiet month. I also added to $NVDA, $BIPC, $AMT, $MPW, $O, $IIPR, $NLCP, and $TSM via DRIP. I exited zero positions.

My retirement portfolio was up 13.09% in July. However, I'm still down 35.84% YTD and my month-by-month YTD is as bad as growth investor's portfolio returns could look.

Shoutout to my best performing retirement positions in 2022 so far:
  • $BMBL with a 35.80% return YTD
  • $SWAV with a 32.35% return YTD
  • $TYL with a 31.41% return YD

And a look at my best retirement performing positions in July:

My top 10 positions continue to make up ~33% of my portfolio. $MELI's great July brings to back to the top spot followed by $AAPL, $AMZN, $F, $GOOGL, $SHOP, little known and rarely mentioned $NVEE, $COST, my baby $SWAV, and $SIVB.

Looking forward to August, I'm still considering opening a new position in either $TTD, $TWLO $SONO, $NET, $NTDOY, and after this recent fall, $ROKU.

Taxable Portfolio
In June, I only added to $ATZAF. No positions in this brokerage pay a dividend so there was no DRIP and I did not exit any positions.

Similar to my retirement portfolio, my taxable was up 13.67% in July but is still down 36.60% YTD and the month-by-month is also still abysmal.

Shoutout to my best performing taxable positions in 2022 so far:
  • $TMDX with a 110.75% return YTD
  • $MSP with a 39.49% return YTD - RIP as is had such a great return because it was acquired.
  • $SILK with a 8.10% return YD

And a look at my best performing taxable positions in July:

My top 10 positions continue to make up ~90% of my portfolio as I only have 14 positions in this brokerage. The top 10 remains basically the same with $SNOW, $TMDX, $ATZAF, $SILK, $DT, $LMND, $NCNO, $CPNG, $BIGC, and $OM. Those other 4 positions must be truly awful performers (indeed they are).

Looking forward, I'm undecided which position to add my monthly DCA to. Leaning towards $DT or buying the dip on $OM.

Alternative Investments
I've begun putting some money into Fundrise, Landa, and StartEngine. It's too little to even bother with showing returns and a lot of the stuff is illiquid but I wanted to at least catalog what I'm investing in.

Fundrise
I haven't really dove into yet. I've just been dumping money into it since April and letting them allocate into their Flagship Real Estate Fund. I'll look at their other portfolio options when I get some extra time.

Landa
I've been putting a very small amount of money into Landa each month since April just to play around. I've bought shares in 5 properties and seen some miniscule dividends. It's an interesting foray into real estate and I will probably continue adding to it. The current list of properties I have shares in are:

  • 1394 Oakview (GA)
  • 4474 Highwood (GA)
  • 729 Winter (GA)
  • 8662 Ashley (GA)
  • 24 Ditmars (NY)

StartEngine
This is probably my favorite of the 3 and also the most risky by far. StartEngine allows angel investing in non-public companies. The odds of investments going to zero must be incredibly high while the odds of them ever making it to a publicly traded company incredibly low. That's why StartEngine will remain a very small portion of my portfolio.

I currently am invested in:
  • 3i Tech - "3i Tech Works builds engagement solutions to increase customer loyalty and drive revenue for small and medium-sized businesses. Our integrated platform aims to even the playing field for brick-and-mortar retailers and restaurants by providing them the best digital tools to connect and engage with mobile customers."
  • Future Cardia - "We are Future Cardia (Oracle Health, Inc.) - Bringing you a tiny insertable cardiac monitor for a long-term heart failure monitoring solution to disrupt the $5B market and to set the stage for Connected Implants. Our approach is a simple 2-minute office procedure that brings simplicity, accuracy, high compliance for long-term monitoring, and existing insurance coverage."

I having approved but not yet finalized investments in:
  • SapientX - "We have created a voice assistant powered by AI (artificial intelligence) that can interact with users as if it were their best friend. Today, we are working with companies that make cars, appliances, smart home devices and vending machines to voice-enable a new generation of products."
  • POPS! Diabetes Care - "We have developed and commercialized a revolutionary AI self-care platform for diabetes management. Our mission is for people to take ownership of their diabetes through simple technology, and we have people in all 50 states and Australia using Pops."
  • Kari Gran - "Kari Gran Skincare is a pioneer in the rapidly-growing clean beauty business, headed by passionate female founders disrupting the category with differentiated products targeting an underserved market; women 40+ experiencing dry skin due to menopause. We know the stresses and challenges that come with dry skin, but more importantly, we also know the solution."

I also have an approved but not yet finalized investment in a signed edition Banksy artwork, Laugh Now.
post mediapost media
Conor Mac's avatar
$337.4m follower assets
Thoughts from a former PM at Tinder
Thoughts from a Former PM at Tinder (2014-2020) on some of the challenges the brand faces in international markets $MTCH

Source: AlphaSense

"India has one of the worst gender distributions of any country, where there's something like 85% of the market is men".

The same person's thoughts on MTCH's culture of innovation, remarks that Tinder is a "one-trick pony".

His thoughts on Bubmle $BMBL being a superior brand to Tinder, but Hinge is a superior product to Bumble.

I agree that the "women message first" feature is a gimmick.
post mediapost media
Next
Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.