Steve Matt's avatar
$1.5m follower assets
Bumble ($BMBL) or Match ($MTCH)
Someone is giving you $1,000 but you can only use it to buy shares of Bumble or Match and you can't sell those shares for 10 years. Have to pick one as a long-term hold. Curious what the sentiment is.

Very brief overview of each:
  • Match is the current industry leader. Profitable and plenty of free cash flow and a track record that shows they should be able to maintain it. Growing the top line at ~19% the past 3 years, but paying user growth is decelerating. Has a huge suite of dating apps in its portfolio but Tinder is the big dog.
  • Bumble has 1/4 the revenue at 1/4 the market cap of Match. Just turned profitable in Q1 although there's no track record they can maintain it. FCF positive every year since 2019 with FCF/S increasing the past 2 years. Gross margins currently better than Match. Badoo is a drag on them but the Bumble app is growing paid users well and recently expanded in Europe with Fruitz acqusition.
Bumble ($BMBL) or Match ($MTCH)?
27%Bumble
72%Match
18 VotesPoll ended on: 05/27/22
MatchGroup all day. Premium offerings vs Bumble which has zero diversification in their offerings.
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Stanley's avatar
$3.8m follower assets
Monday Madness - 5/9/22
Overall, 9 stock positions increased/added.

Additional investments into my Stash portfolio (4).

$BMBL - $35.66 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$CMPS - $73.00 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$SFIX - $12.20 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.
$YUM - $135.95 consensus price target. DCA down from previous buys.

None of the above, with the exception of $YUM, are core positions, I'm banking on the differential in the current share price vs the anticipated upside. Willing to hold, but will take profit when it presents itself.

Additional investments into my M1 Finance "Fat Cat Investing" portfolio (5)


Anyone familiar with M1 Finance knows how the 'pies' work, but for those that don't, once the pie is setup and weighted you have very little control, aside from adjusting percentages, in controlling individual buys. Since I added $CUBE to the "Fat Cat Investing" portfolio today, I deposited an off-schedule deposit to force a 'buy' resulting in the purchases above, as dictated by my weighting. The addition of $CUBE brings this portfolio up to 49 holdings.

The 'Fat Cat Investing' portfolio was down 3.05% overall today and is a part of my ongoing "Real Estate Rumble".

These are now "core" positions in this IRA, so unless there is a fundamental change in one of the REITS - all 49 are long term holds.
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Beaten-down 2021 IPOs
I love avoiding new initial public offerings for their first couple of earnings reports as a publicly-traded company -- but even more so, I love revisiting them after this 6-12 months.

Life as a newly public company is rough as expectations from analysts are wonky, and management is adjusting to a new lifestyle of increased scrutiny.

With this in mind, here's a list of 2021 IPOs I'm watching that have traded down since going public.

$RSKD Riskified -74% | $PATH UiPath -67% | $COOK Traeger -66% | $BIRD Allbirds -65% | $MQ Marqueta -64% | $CPNG Coupang -62% | $OLO Olo -56% | $COIN Coinbase -53% | $APP Applovin -51% | $EXFY Expensify -44% | $USER UserTesting -42% | $BMBL Bumble -42% | $WRBY Warby Parker -40% | $AFRM Affirm -39% | $WEBR Weber -37% | $NU Nu -31%| $RBLX Roblox -30% | $SEMR SEMrush -27% | $FIGS FIGS -27% | $MNDY Monday -13% | $DOCN DigitalOcean -11% | $CFLT Confluent -8% | $GLBE Global-e Online -6% |

Curious to hear what you all may like the most from these?

Out of this list, four are part of my Core 34 group of holdings that I aim to add to the most here in 2022.

Have a good weekend, friendly humans.
With of the four from my core 34 do you like the most?
42%Coupang
31%Roblox
15%DigitalOcean
10%Global-e Online
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/02/22
Alberto Wallis's avatar
$8.7m follower assets
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (March 7th - 11th)
Hey guys! Here's the upcoming earnings calendar! I'm interested in:

  • $ZIM - Comments on their outlook for shipping prices.
  • $CRWD - Another stellar earnings report and I'll probably start a position in this company.
  • $MQ - How fast are their non-$SQ revenues growing?

Which earnings report are you looking forward to?

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.
MON:



TUE:



WED:



THU:



FRI:

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Conor Mac's avatar
$320.3m follower assets
Bumble vs MatchGroup
$BMBL is now down more than 70% from their IPO price last February, whilst $MTCH is down 33% over the same time period.

Begs to wonder, why would anyone have invested in Bumble over MatchGroup in the first place?

Although, in fairness, Bumble is now trading at a pretty compromising valuation. If there was no regulatory scrutiny, picking up Bumble could be a legendary acquisition for MatchGroup.

On the contrary, at $2.8B market cap (likely pay a premium over market valuation) it would seem like squandered money. The only quality asset in the portfolio is Bumble (Badoo and Fruitz being the others). MatchGroup don't need to acquire it, as they already have higher quality apps in their own portfolio.

If it was trading at $1B... another story.
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Never understood why these two where close comparable, besides from the fact that it's the "same industry" of course

It's like comparing Telegram to Facebook simply because it competes with WhatsApp
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Conor Mac's avatar
$320.3m follower assets
Bumble getting fruity
$BMBL to add "Fruitz" to its portfolio after acquiring the French-born dating app. An aesthetic that somewhat replicates Tinder but with a twist.

Users can identify as four "fruits" to imply dating preference.

I don't hate this. There is both a virality aspect and a softening of intention here. There is not really a socially acceptable way to imply that "I am just here looking for a one night stand" on apps like Tinder.

Using "fruits" reduces that friction.

"Peaches" want fun between the sheets, "Watermelons" want fruits with benefits, "Grapes" want dates, and "Cherries" are looking for something more serious.

That app has all the typical monetisation aspects as Tinder (premium sub for back swipes, more swipes, etc)

With the addition of "tokens" which users can buy to "reveal" their potential match's fruit before they swipe.

Although this is another GenZ/Mil crowd app. Bumble need to do more to get outside of EU and that demographic. Wonder what they paid.

Probably lacks the network effects in most regions to really be a great platform for now, but sure Bumble is keen to address that.

Sources:

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Hedge Vision's avatar
$106.2m follower assets
13D/G Filings Received Today
  • $APPN CEO Matt Calkins increases his stake by 2.44%.

  • JP Morgan takes a 7.7% stake in $BMBL. Also increases its $AZO position by 10.48%

More ⬇️
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@hedgevision are you able to tell if the increase in Calkins' stake was due to stock grants or vesting options as part of his comp? Or was he buying stock on the open market?
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ESG needs to be rethinked
ESG stands for “environmental, social, and governance”

When people talk about it, they mostly focus on the environmental aspect.

But they don’t talk much about the social aspect.

Personally, I find that fossil fuel companies deserve a higher ESG rating than dating apps like $BMBL and $MTCH as well as large social networks like $FB.

I’ve come to this conclusion after witnessing the negative effects of hookup culture in my community and in other communities for many years.

These negative effects include:
  • a surge in STD cases
  • the ever growing rate of single motherhood
  • broken families
  • large scale distrust in one another (from an intimate level)
  • growing popularity in polygamy

These effects will be profound as time goes on. We will be seeing more kids struggling as their families get broken up or get born into single motherhood households. Productivity both locally, nationally, and internationally will drop significantly as people will be enduring a lot more relationship issues and health issues related to hookup culture.

The negative consequences continue to grow from there.

And don’t forget that for Facebook and other mainstream social media platforms, that there is a bigger incentive for these platforms to promote hateful content since it generates the most engagement and the most revenue.

While fossil fuel companies destroy areas of land in one aspect, they are providing the fuel needed to keep people warm in the winter and provide energy for the many things we rely on daily.

With that, I believe that social platforms and dating platforms should have a lower ESG rating than fossil fuel companies.

I understand that this is an unpopular opinion, but I hope that you can understand my perspective.
Not only do I understand your opinion I agree with it! Oil isn’t the big bad wolf it’s made out to be and FB / social media certainly aren’t knights in shining armor! I often worry that ESG artificially pushed bad business decisions in the name of moral authority.
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