Steve Matt's avatar
$10.2m follower assets
$U $BIRD $OLO Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Unity Software Inc. ($U) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Currently trading at 15.2 trailing sales and 8.7 forward sales which sounds expensive. However, It's slightly on the cheap side on my Price-to-Sales-to-Growth ratio at 0.20 (accurately priced is 0.25). Will they maintain 40% revenue growth and keep the PSG in the range it's at?
  • Net profit margin (I guess it's more accurate to call it a net loss margin) has gotten worse each of the past 2 years. FCF worsened as well. Curious to see what direction this goes. I would guess they'll both get worse before better.
  • Operate revenue growth >50%.
  • DBNER >140%
  • Customers generating $100,000 revenue >1,100.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 27th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.32 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (90.7%)
Annualized $SPY return: (30.0%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (45.1%)

Allbirds, Inc. ($BIRD) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This is a company that I'm partially blinded by my love of the product. Allbirds are incredible shoes. I own 5 pairs. I still think $LULU should by them. Seems like a match made in heaven.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Really need to see strong revenue growth. 2021 grew at 26.5%. Really hoping for 30%+ in Q1.
  • Would really appreciate if management would begin providing digital vs store revenue breakdown along with shoe vs apparel and men vs women.
  • Just curious to see what management's comments on are the conference call.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 22nd highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.51 years
Number of purchases since: 2
Annualized return: (92.5%)
Annualized $SPY return: (21.6%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (38.3%)

Olo Inc. ($OLO) - Reporting earnings this afternoon (5/10)
This was my play on the food delivery trend. I hate the food delivery apps ($DASH $UBER $GRUB whatever, they all suck and are predatory to their "contractors" and the restaurants). Olo though is just SaaS for restaurants. I'm getting pummeled in my position but I remain cautiously bullish.

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Annualized revenue growth of 67% since 2018 is nothing to sneeze at. Need to keep it up to justify their somehow still high P/S ratios. PSG is cheap on my scale though at 0.10.
  • Gross profit margins got worse in 2021. Get it back above 80%, please.
  • Active location count growth >83,000.
  • Average revenue per unit >$525.
  • NRR >120%
  • Not sure of management will provide this metric but a modules per location update would be lovely.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.14 years
Number of purchases since: 1
Annualized return: (61.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: 2.4%
Annualized $QQQ return: (4.1%)
Beaten-down 2021 IPOs
I love avoiding new initial public offerings for their first couple of earnings reports as a publicly-traded company -- but even more so, I love revisiting them after this 6-12 months.

Life as a newly public company is rough as expectations from analysts are wonky, and management is adjusting to a new lifestyle of increased scrutiny.

With this in mind, here's a list of 2021 IPOs I'm watching that have traded down since going public.

$RSKD Riskified -74% | $PATH UiPath -67% | $COOK Traeger -66% | $BIRD Allbirds -65% | $MQ Marqueta -64% | $CPNG Coupang -62% | $OLO Olo -56% | $COIN Coinbase -53% | $APP Applovin -51% | $EXFY Expensify -44% | $USER UserTesting -42% | $BMBL Bumble -42% | $WRBY Warby Parker -40% | $AFRM Affirm -39% | $WEBR Weber -37% | $NU Nu -31%| $RBLX Roblox -30% | $SEMR SEMrush -27% | $FIGS FIGS -27% | $MNDY Monday -13% | $DOCN DigitalOcean -11% | $CFLT Confluent -8% | $GLBE Global-e Online -6% |

Curious to hear what you all may like the most from these?

Out of this list, four are part of my Core 34 group of holdings that I aim to add to the most here in 2022.

Have a good weekend, friendly humans.
With of the four from my core 34 do you like the most?
42%Coupang
31%Roblox
15%DigitalOcean
10%Global-e Online
19 VotesPoll ended on: 05/02/22
Hedge Vision's avatar
$114.4m follower assets
$CROX has industry leading FCF Margins
Crocs beats out fashion giants like $LULU and $NKE.
The company's FCF margins come way out on top when you only compare it to shoe companies like $SHOO $WWW $SKX $BIRD $DECK
Should note that FCF margins may drop over the next twelve months due to supply chain challenges, like increased shipping costs and cost of raw materials.
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Paul Cerro's avatar
$26.8m follower assets
SBC is a scam to adj. EBITDA and you're getting diluted
Stock-based compensation (SBC_ has gotten out of control with some companies that utilize the line item top boost adj. EBITDA for profitability but can also dilute you.

Prime example is $TWTR. Market Cap >1.5x since IPO while price only up ~2% in the same time

The link below shows this weeks "Chart of the Week" for the following names


The numbers are quite shocking. If you're interested in receiving content like this, hit the subscribe button (it's free!).

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My Wartime Portfolio: 02/24/22
A few notable changes in the past 3-4 months:
  • $RBLX - New position, I see this as a $100B company
  • $NU - New position, A true gem similar to my $AFRM position
  • $IOT - Disrupting fleets and building an IOT monopoly
  • $WRBY - New position, disrupting the vision industry successfully
  • $BIRD - New position, disrupting the footwear industry
  • $AMPL - Powering Product Led Growth for Modern SaaS Businesses
  • $PLTR - Its a privilege to be a part of Peter Thiel's vision for enterprise software

Ask me any questions you have about any of these, looking to learn and add value to the community!
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Socially Responsible Investing
If it costs more to be a socially and environmentally conscious company, what’s a fair return on investment?
5, 6, 7%?
I know this depends on individual needs too.
There are some investments I’d be happy with a 5% return on, if profits were secondary to ethical decisions.
This is me looking into $POSH and $BIRD
I don’t think they’re great businesses or great values but I’m interested in investing in them bc their B Corp status and their sustainable business models. I wouldn’t be interested if I thought they were crap companies either. I’m not looking to lose money in them. As an exercise in thinking about socially responsible investing, if it costs more or profits less for the company, obviously, it follows that investment returns will be lower.
One interesting way I think this could impact valuations though is if you have a large enough block of investors with this mindset, you’ll have higher valuations and multiples on these companies because of the different set of reasons and expectations for an investment in the companies. I don’t care and other investors don’t care if it’s overpriced by standard valuations that could diminish future returns because the expected return is already lower and there’s more emphasis on how the company is responsible rather than exceedingly profitable. With the caveat being of course that the company is a well run business overall.
Digital Advertising Industry Report
The digital advertising industry will continue to see strong growth driven by retail shift to online sales. Currently, only 18% of retail in the US is online which is very early on the S-curve. As retail continues to shift online, the importance of digital advertising will increase. The digital advertising industry is very concentrated; Google, Facebook, and Amazon have 27%, 22% and 9% of the industry respectively and even higher excluding China. Small and medium businesses are reliant on Google and Facebook advertising to convert sales and gain brand awareness. The digital nature of the industry allows companies to quantitatively see the benefits of their advertisements and allows digital advertisement companies to price discriminate raising margins based on supply and demand.

For full report, read below.

Stocks Included in Report
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