Josh Kohn-Lindquist's avatar
$17.2m follower assets
3 Hypergrowth Stocks I'm Watching
While hypergrowth has become a dirty word recently, now is as critical of a time as ever to take a long look at some of these high-growth names.

A key point for each:

  • $CRWD posted its 16th straight quarter of a dollar-based net retention (DBNR) rate above 120%. Also humble-bragged that its metric of customers using four or more modules wasn't worthwhile anymore (since over 70% already do) and changed it to 7 or more.
  • $DDOG one-upped CrowdStrike and recorded 19 consecutive quarters of a DBNR above 130%. As companies continue migrating to the hyperscalers' ($AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOG) clouds, Datadog is poised to benefit.
  • $BILL is my least confident pick of the group but is worth a watchlist spot as it also owns a promising DBNR of 124% and brings innovation to paperwork-heavy back-office operations.
Which of these three will perform the best over the next decade?
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47 VotesPoll ended on: 06/14/22
Voted for Datadog, but CrowdStrike is awesome as well.

I can't get out of my head as being really frustrating, but that is only based on reading Packy McCormick's short on them from Jan 2021 (which, for the 10 months after he wrote it, went up 162%. But then it fell all the way back down and is now 7% below where it was in Jan 2021. It takes a long time to be right!)
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April 2022 Bloodbath - Names Down >30% Since April 1
April 2022 was one of the worst market months of all time. In fact, it was the worst since October 2008. Here are 100 stocks down >30% since April 1:

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Sean's avatar
$98.7m follower assets
Q4 21 Earnings Recap Pt1
Highlighting each of my holding's earnings report, update their KPI trends, and include some quotes of interest from the earnings call

Included in this first edition are:

Hedge Vision's avatar
$114.9m follower assets
Gabe Plotkin's Melvin Capital got crushed by $GME, but the fund still has a massive $14B in AUM with a record of outperformance.

Here's what Melvin Capital did during Q3:

-Increased: $LYV $MA $BILL $SNAP $HLT
-New Buys: $AFRM $MAR $SQ $MCD $ASML. Call options on $MA $HLT $SNAP
-Sold Out: $V $TGT $M $HUBS $PYPL. Call options on $ADSK $JD $AMZN

Top 10 Positions ⬇️
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It's interesting to see $MCD alongside the likes of $SQ, $AFRM, $BILL. I like the company and think the have decent pricing power (though they should take care not to raise prices so high as to kill their value prop!)
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Ryan Mahony's avatar
$17m follower assets
It is interesting to watch how the market attributes multiples to different companies.

Companies that command a higher multiple generally have:

1 - High rate of innovation and new product rollouts ($NET $NVDA $TSLA)
2 - Consistently high revenue growth in large secular trends $SE
3 - Strong product leaders in a new category with brand recognition. ($RBLX, $TSLA, $DOCU $BILL, $SNOW)
4 - low reputational risk / low political risk / low headline risk ( think ‘sin stocks’ or Uber / Lyft dealing with freelance employee regulations or Chinese companies)
5 - High engagement $SNAP

Side note - subscription based businesses command a higher multiple and they generally deserve it. If a 100mm SaaS business wants to grow by 25% they only need to sell an incremental 25mm. A non subscription based company needs to sell 100mm plus 25mm in year 2 to grow 25%.

Companies with lower multiples:

1 - Industries in secular decline such as oil
2 - Highly regulated markets such as healthcare
3 - Low revenue growth
4 - Industries that may have become commoditized
5 - Legacy companies that are quickly losing market share to new entrants

What am I missing!
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