A Weekly Update on Special Situations
  • Continental Resources $CLR received an unsolicited take-private proposal from its controlling shareholder.

  • NCR $NCR said it was deciding between a sale of the entire company or splitting into two.
"The conversations with potential suitors have been extremely constructive."
– Michael Nelson, NCR Corp – VP of IR & Treasurer – at RBC Capital Markets Financial Technology Conference

  • Mereo BioPharma $MREO reportedly draws takeover interest from AstraZeneca $AZN.

  • Paya Holdings $PAYA reportedly exploring a sale amid takeover interest.

  • Seagen $SGEN reportedly in takeover talks with buyers including Merck $MRK.

  • FedEx $FDX announced a 50% dividend hike and a cooperation agreement with D.E. Shaw regarding board composition.

  • Radius Health $RDUS 15% shareholder Rubric Capital sent a letter backing activist investor’s board slate.

  • Templeton Global $GIM activist Saba Capital commented on Templeton’s attempt to invalidate shareholder vote at AGM.

  • Bausch Health $BHC suspended the planned IPO of its Solta skin-care business.

Thanks for reading! Until next week.
Upcoming Earnings Calendar (Feb 7th - 11th)
Hey guys!

A key week is ahead of us! Here's what I'm interested in:

  • $APPS - One of my largest holdings. I'd like an update on the progress of single-tap and the tests they were running with Meta $FB. I'm also interested in seeing how their device footprint is expanding after their latest deals.
  • $DIS - They've invested heavily on Marvel and Star Wars series for Disney+, so let's see if this translates to lower churn and higher growth.
  • $NET - Really interesting stock but the valuation seems too high. Let's see if there's a good opportunity to enter post-earnings.

Good luck!

If you'd like an easier way to track earnings dates, you can automatically sync your portfolio's earning dates to your personal calendar with just a couple of clicks here.

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Mega week for earnings! (Nov 8-12)
Here are featured earnings we are paying attention to @ Fincredible.

The ones I'm paying close attention are:

$PYPL - Want to learn more about their plans for 'super app', integration of BNPL and if any color on rumored $PINS acqn, which is now dead (or never was there). I own some $PYPL

$PLTR - I think I'm the only non-bull on this company. I'm unsure of their technological prowess and confused by their corporate governance. I don't own and have no plans, but just curious.

$COIN - I have no exposure in crypto except via a managed investment on Titan, but I think this is a great way to continue to learn and try and get smarter

$U - I like this company a lot. I'm particularly interested in their non-gaming revenues which I think is a larger TAM. Selfishly, I'm hoping this stock falls after earnings (Sorry for the many who own it) so I can buy on the dip, but not expecting it.

$SOFI $AFRM - I view both of these innovative companies but are overpriced, and don't have as much moat as people give them credit. Yet always interested to hear about them to be proven wrong, and given my investments in $PYPL, banks, and various private fintechs

$EHTH - not Ethereum, but eHealth. Given they fired most of the management team recently, always interested in what the tone/focus of the call is.

BTW as of this week, for S&P 500 companies (plus other popular stocks) you can not only play the calls in real-time at Fincredible, but also read the transcript and monitor specific keywords in real-time. Check it out - https://app.fincredible.ai/latest-earnings

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Peter Zeihan Updates on the Vaccine
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist that you should follow purely because of his expertise on global demographics and their implications on economics.

In addition to that, he has some great updates on the progress of Covid vaccines.

Here are some quick notes on which vaccines Zeihan is most excited about:

Pfizer
Least excited about. Pfizer doesn't have a lot of experience with vaccines, and it shows; there are hiccups with distribution, testing, and regulatory issues. It's out first, but it requires ultra-cold storage at -70 degrees, requires two shots, and needs to be transported with dry ice, which we are already seeing shortages of in the North East. Pfizer's vaccine is currently in circulation.

Moderna
Also requires two shots, but Moderna has been in the vaccine business for a while, and has faster distribution. It also only needs to be stored at -20 degrees. Zeihan expects that within six weeks, the number of people who have gotten the Moderna vaccine will triple the amount of people who have gotten the Pfizer vaccine simply because they are a more experienced company. Circulation is starting today.

Oxford / AstraZeneca
In the longer run (about six months or so) Zeihan expects the Oxford vaccine to outsell the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine combined because it is a more traditional manufacturing system that can be produced much faster, and doesn't require freezing, just refrigeration. It is expected to be in circulation by February 1st.

Johnson and Johnson
Zeihan is most excited about this one because it is a single shot, and it doesn't require refrigeration. Should be in circulation by early March.

Peter address those in a video this morning.

Zeihan said for those mutations to cause a problem they would have to be really extreme, and there would need to be not just one, but thousands of different mutations.

The main area to focus on is the spike protein, which is the part of the coronavirus that bonds with your cells in order to infect them.
All four of the vaccines are designed to target the spike protein.

For the spike protein to change sufficiently such that the vaccine can't stop it, the virus would probably also have to change so much that it couldn't infect us in the first place.

So far there isn't any indication that the coronavirus mutations have changed it enough such that the vaccines can't be effective.

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Great writeup on the vaccine. This is the type of information people need to read, since it's a productive headline and not sensationalist.
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Bar Joke
Two retail investors walk into a bar. The first one, looking defeated, slumps onto the stool and orders a Jim Beam on the rocks.

“What’s got you down?”, asked the second.

“Oh nothing. It’s just that I bought $BABA right before the Ant Group IPO”, replies the first.

Shaking his head, the second investor turns away and orders a double Jim Beam on the rocks. Shocked, the first investor turns to his colleague.

“What could possibly have you down worse than I am?”

Throwing back his drink in one fluid, practiced movement, the second investor replies,

“I bought $AZN before the announcement.”
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