ParrotStock's avatar
$243.1m follower assets
Ad Tech looks stable if not bullish
With the rest of the market missing expectations and giving poor guidance, Ad Tech (businesses) have so far been pretty stable.

Granted, stock prices have dipped with the rest of the market, but the businesses are still performing.

$MGNI reported EPS in line at $0.08, a 166% increase YoY; with sales coming in at $118M, beating the estimate of $107M by 10%, +95% YoY.

$TTD EPS of $0.21 beat the $0.15 estimate by 40%, a +50% YoY gain. Sales came in at $315M, beating the estimated $304M by 3%, a +43% YoY gain.

$PUBM, I don't own anymore, beat EPS estimate by nearly 200% coming in at $0.14. Sales and Q2 guide were in-line with estimates as well.

$CTV just missed the EPS estimate of ($0.05), coming in at ($0.06), however sales beat by 21%, coming in at $25.9M. They reported organic YoY revenue growth of 30%, and +40% revenue growth including their new acquisition of TV Squared. Losses are expected to narrow next Q, and FY'22 revenue is expected between $135-$140M.

$ZMDTF had a +183% YoY Q with revenue of $18.7M and FY'21 revenue of $52.6M, +107% YoY. They also finished the year with a positive EBITDA of $5.8M for FY'21. The company is guiding for a FY'22 revenue of $74M-$80M, approximately +50% YoY.

We're still waiting on reports dates from $APPS $MOBQ $MVVYF.

$KBNT is on the bubble from last Q., they report on May 16.

And the one I'm most anxious/excited about, AcuityAds $ATY, reports on May 12th. They also just got approval for a stock buyback plan. I'll be watching this one closely.

I'd like to consolidate some of these Ad Tech positions after earnings season is over, but so far I've been mostly pleased with the sectors results.

How are you guy's feeling about the Ad Tech sector over the next few Q's? 👇

🦜
I've seen some interesting buzz surrounding $TTD recently. Their earnings report was very strong, and their partnerships, especially with $WMT, could drive further growth
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The Dark Side of the Market: The Short Sell
Everyone is very familiar with buying a stock but many are missing a huge opportunity within the market by not being educated on the short sell.
First off, what is a short sell? Short selling a stock is when you borrow the shares at a set price with the hopes of buying them back in the future for lower. Just as you want to buy low and sell high, you want to short high, and re-buy back in low.
What are the pros to short selling? You can explode the returns of your portfolio if you believe a company is extremely overvalued. For example $ZM $FVRR $PTON are all exceptional examples of overvalued companies last year that could have generated over 80% returns in 2 years.
What are the risks of short selling? Unlimited downside potential, hard to borrow shares with some brokers, unable to borrow shares in retirement accounts, and at times higher fees.
How do I utilize short selling? I primarily short a stock as it is transitioning from a stage 3 top into a stage 4 downtrend. If you are unfamiliar with this, it is called stage analysis and it shows the higher time frame trend of a stock.
Given The Feds major change in stance this year with higher interest rates, potential end of QE, war with Ukraine - Russia, and other macro headwinds - I saw a huge opportunity for stocks to decouple this year. At first, we saw small caps roll over which gave a foreshadowing of what is to come in the mid/large cap world. While some might use short selling as a way to make money from an overvalued company, I utilize short selling when macro headwinds are ahead and TA is confirming major breakdowns. A few examples of these have included $U $UPST $MDB $APPS $DKNG $NIO $BABA and many more.
There are major risks to short selling as I only utilize them as trades, but they have been a huge part of my portfolio this year instead of sitting in cash or staying long in many downtrending stocks.
No matter how much you believe in your stock over the next 5-10 years - understanding how to actively invest can lead to explosive returns if you can capture both the upside and the downside.
I have not taken 1 long in over 6 months as an will wait patiently for my watchlist stocks to base after decoupling. For example, I am bullish on $TWLO long term, but I have shorted it this year to increase my portfolio value to buy more shares when it transitions from stage 4 into stage 1.
It’s important to learn to play both sides of the market because only playing the long side misses out on so much money when the market is rolling over.
If you can’t short, you can always look into inverse ETFs such as $SPXU $RWM $SQQQ $SDOW.
Trade the trend. Use the profits to buy more shares of your favorite long term names. Rinse and repeat.
If you enjoyed this post, hit the upvote and follow button for more education with Investor Insight.
Nathan Worden's avatar
$310.5m follower assets
Compound Collaboration, Month #21 — Texas Pacific Land
Every month I put aside some money into a portfolio aimed at long-term bets over the next 20 years. I will be gifting this portfolio to my future kids someday. I hope to use these memos as an educational tool to teach them about the world. With any luck, managing the portfolio will become a shared activity to collaborate on as they grow up.

It is one of the main reasons why I invest.

Performance from the first 20 months:
‌‌Month #1 Aug 2020: $ARKK -42%
Month #2 Sep 2020: $ARKG -44%
Month #3 Oct 2020: $BTC.X +223%
Month #4 Nov 2020: $BTC.X +105%
Month #5 Dec 2020: $NVDA +42%
Month #6 Jan 2021: $VT +2%
Month #7 Feb 2021: $PACB -78%
Month #8 Mar 2021: $TSM -15%
Month #9 Apr 2021: $KLIC -9%
Month #10 May 2021: $TTD -15%
Month #11 Jun 2021: $ETH.X +34%
Month #12 Jul 2021: $ETH.X +25%
Month #13 Aug 2021: $ROKU -74%
Month #14 Sept 2021: $ETH.X -4%
Month #15 Oct. 2021: $RBLX -59%
Month #16 Nov. 2021: $APPS -51%
Month #17 Dec. 2021: $VMEO -43%
Month #18 Jan. 2022: Cash 0%
Month #19 Feb. 2022: $OPEN -15%
Month #20 Mar 2022: $RRC +11%

Total portfolio return: -1.02%

Return if every month I had just bought the S&P 500: +2.69%

Well this is humbling

For the first time, the total value of the portfolio has now gone negative— meaning if I needed to withdraw the money today, I would have been better off saving.

Fortunately, my kids aren't even born yet so I don't need the money today. Hopefully this memo will be a humorous stop along the journey. We shall see.

Many years from now, I hope my kids will get the chance to read this and take away the following lessons:

  • After 20 months of building this portfolio, all the work that has gone into it has cost me 1.02%. This illustrates the argument for putting your money into an S&P 500 index and calling it a day. It's way less work, and you may just come out ahead in the long run.
  • In the short term, you never know where the stock market is going to go, especially individual stocks.
  • 1-2 years is considered "short term." Investing really is played on long time-horizons.
  • Expect to be wrong a lot in investing. So far 12 of the 20 picks I've made have lost money. My hit rate at the moment is 35%.

Things may keep getting worse before they get better. The extremely long time horizon intended for this portfolio allows me to sit tight. It's not fun to be down vs. the S&P 500 or in general, but for now, it's one stop along the way.

This month's addition:

Texas Pacific Land
Ticker: $TPL
Market Cap: 10.66B
Should tip the hat to Horizon Kinetics who have been big believers in $TPL for a long time (decades).

History
Texas Pacific land started out as a railroad 1871. The idea for the railroad was to connect West Texas with the coast of California. A federal charter granted land to the company for every mile of railroad it built. The company earned three and a half million acres of West Texas land from building the railroad. But guess how many people lived in West Texas in 1871? Pretty much no one! So the railroad went out of business— but the company still owned all that sweet land. So the Texas Pacific Land Trust was formed to manage the land, which it would sell and then return the money to owners of the trust certificates. In 1920, they stopped selling the land because, you guessed it: they discovered oil. Texas Pacific sold over 75% of its original landholdings. But even after all that, it is still the largest landowner in Texas. The remaining land is in the Permian basin of west Texas, the most productive oil field in the world right now. Texas Pacific now leases its land to oil companies and collects royalties from them.

Investable Attributes
  • The Dividend payout ratio is about 65%. Part of the thesis is that this will increase.
  • The company doesn't have any debt. It doesn't need to take in capital to grow.
  • It's all about the royalties. They are the biggest catalyst going forward for dividend growth. They don't have to drill the traditional oil. Companies lease land from Texas Pacific and pay them about a one 16th of royalty on the oil they extract, not to mention any water, right usage and other usages.
  • Texas Pacific's gross margin is always close to 100% EBIT and EBITDA margins are usually around mid 90%.
  • Free cashflow margins can run the high sixties, but in recent years this has dipped down into the low forties.
  • Texas Pacific has great operational leverage to rising oil prices and with no need to retain cash, the company returns the bulk of it to us, the shareholders.

Another part of the thesis is that in January 2021 Texas Pacific Land went from being a Trust to a Corporation. The reason this is important is that as a trust, $TPL was not part of the 'investable universe' for a lot of funds and ETFs. Now that it's a corporation, many more entities have access to invest in it.

The Main Thesis:
Texas Pacific Land is a way to get exposure to the price of oil without all the operational execution risk of an oil company. If the price of oil goes up, more oil companies will want to drill on $TPL's land, and the more royalties they will be able to collect.

I think oil demand will stay strong for years, and even in a world where we move primarily to renewables, there will still be a lot of uses for oil in the making of solar and renewable energy infrastructure. Even if oil prices stay where they are now, Texas Pacific is going to be highly profitable and flush with a ton of cash to return to shareholders.

Texas Pacific's estimates that the breakeven oil price for the bulk of their reserves is about $40 per barrel. If the price of oil stays above $40, Texas Pacific should see increased drilling activity on their land and increased revenue growth.

Now, oil reserves are a declining asset. One day Texas Pacific's oil reserves will be gone, or at least only economically viable with a really high price of oil. Right now, Texas Pacific projects that they have 19 years of reserves at a $40 per barrel breakeven price.

Risks
  • Oil Prices decline below $40 a barrel.
  • $TPL's reserves are depleted quicker than the expected 19 years

Things that aren't as big of a risk as people think
  • A fracking ban — fracking bans usually only apply to public land owned by the government. Texas Pacific land is private land. They own it and they can do what they want with it. And with their mineral rights, they would not be effected by a fracking ban. They'd actually be affected positively because other sites going offline means $TPL's resources are more valuable.
  • Electric vehicles — The expectation is the electric vehicle will cause oil demand to fall off a cliff. Today EVs are an expensive niche product. They are a small percentage of total auto sells. If EV sales were to double, they'll still only account for less than 10% of all automobile cells. We need a step change in battery technology to bring the cost per vehicle down and to increase our range, to make it a daily driver for the average person. Personally, I hope this happens, but I think it will take longer than most people anticipate. I'm assuming that in the medium term oil demand will go up, and in the longer term (30 years) oil demand will remain relatively flat.

Here's my trade— bought at $1,390. Currently at $1,366.
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Noticing some other Commonstock users who hold Texas Pacific Land. Nick Rasmussen @nras00 has been holding for 564 days and Ram V @sirthroedness for 409 days, impressive! Would love to hear ya'lls thesis as well.

Same with @joryko — how long have you been holding $TPL and what's your main motivation for holding?
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Nathan Worden's avatar
$310.5m follower assets
Compound Collaboration, Month #20
Every month I put aside some money into a portfolio aimed at long-term bets over the next 20 years. I will be gifting this portfolio to my future kids someday. I hope to use these memos as an educational tool to teach them about the world. With any luck, managing the portfolio will become a shared activity to collaborate on as they grow up.

It is one of the main reasons why I invest.

Performance from the first 19 months:
‌‌Month #1 Aug 2020: $ARKK -18%
Month #2 Sep 2020: $ARKG -24%
Month #3 Oct 2020: $BTC.X +294%
Month #4 Nov 2020: $BTC.X +150%
Month #5 Dec 2020: $NVDA +107%
Month #6 Jan 2021: $VT +12%
Month #7 Feb 2021: $PACB -68%
Month #8 Mar 2021: $TSM -3%
Month #9 Apr 2021: $KLIC +10%
Month #10 May 2021: $TTD +2%
Month #11 Jun 2021: $ETH.X +60%
Month #12 Jul 2021: $ETH.X +49%
Month #13 Aug 2021: $ROKU -65%
Month #14 Sept 2021: $ETH.X +15%
Month #15 Oct. 2021: $RBLX -37%
Month #16 Nov. 2021: $APPS -32%
Month #17 Dec. 2021: $VMEO -33%
Month #18 Jan. 2022: Cash 0%
Month #19 Feb. 2022: $OPEN +8%

Total portfolio return: 22.5%

Return if every month I had just bought the S&P 500: 13.7%

Addition for Month #20: Range Resources $RRC Resource.

Range Resources is a petroleum and natural gas exploration and production company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas (I used to live in Dallas circa 2019).

Macro Thesis:
I want the world to transition to sustainable energy as much as anyone. But I think the current expectations of how fast we can move completely to renewables is unrealistic.

It generally takes about 5 decades for the world to transition from one energy system to another. If we are extremely disciplined, we may be able to speed up the transition to renewables in as little as 20 years.

But much of the investment world is acting as if electric cars will make oil obsolete in the next five years.

Oil demand is not going away in the next five years.

While the use of renewables is expected to grow faster than fossil fuels, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says coal, oil and natural gas will still account for 77% of our energy in 2040. The EIA reckons that total world energy consumption will rise by nearly 30% over the coming decades. Even if renewables grow exponentially, they will still need a lot of help from fossil fuels to meet demand.

You may see Teslas on the road every day and think that the whole world is on the cusp of going green. But it's a privilege to have the resources to go green. Developing nations have disproportionately younger populations which are incentivized to pursue high growth industries that can make use of their cheap labor and growing consumer base. The economies of these countries literally need energy to run. Going green for these countries is cost-prohibitive and quality-of-live reducing.

The fastest way to make green infrastructure is by using the tools we have today. Which means using a lot more oil.

Range Resources is bet that the oil industry has been overly discounted and still has a long life ahead of it.

Company Specific Thesis:
Range Resources is:
• A top 10 U.S. producer of natural gas
• Top natural gas exporter
• The most capital efficient operator in Appalachia
• Has the longest core inventory life in Appalachia
• Is a leader in environmental practices

Range Resources has a low decline rate. The 'decline rate' is a method for estimating reserves and predicting the rate of oil production. It shows the pace at which production is expected to decline over the lifetime of an energy asset. The lower the decline rate, the longer the oil well will last. $RRC's low decline rate drives sustainably low capital requirements.

Because their core inventory has a multi-decade life expectation, Range Resources has a long runway of free cash flow generation, which they are returning to shareholders via dividends and a $500 million share repurchase program.

$RRC is also a leader in environmental practices. They are targeting net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.

Summary:
I'm adding Range Resources to the portfolio because:
• High FCF yield
• Low decline rate
• Dividend and buyback in place
• Good balance sheet
• Trades at a discount to NAV
• Has a strong environmental track record
• Energy demand will force investment oil to return in full force
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"It generally takes about 5 decades for the world to transition from one energy system to another." - Interesting! If this is the case for energy, imagine how long it takes for a transition to an entirely new reserve currency 😉 Nice $BTC.X gains, btw
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$TSLA management discussions about potential stock split. The stock reacted by 5% up side.
Keep an eye.
$APPS joined my portfolio.
Stock dividends are worthless. You’re just cutting the same pie into more pieces
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Leandro's avatar
$113.7m follower assets
Digital Turbine $APPS One-Pager
Decided to do this one-pager on $APPS just in case it leads someone to look closer into the company.

It's obviously not extremely detailed but it was the only way to keep it inside a page.

Full disclosure: I have a 4% position with a cost basis of $57.

Not investment advice.
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Leon's avatar
$846.5k follower assets
Portfolio end of February 202
stocks
$EPSIL $YSN $EVO $M8G $AMZN $ST5 $KSPI $GOOG $MBR $TRMR $LEAT $APPS $META $U $IDT $BKNG $MYNA $KAMBI $INPST $SPACE.AT $TCEHY $NVDA $SEYE $BABA $SE

New
$IDT $SPACE.AT

Sold
$HHR $ENTER

crypto
$ETH $BTC $LTC $ENJIN $YGG $ADA $IOTA $DOT

+wikifolio „Zukunftsbranchen“
Nathan Worden's avatar
$310.5m follower assets
Compound Collaboration, Month 18 & 19
Every month I put aside some money into a portfolio aimed at long-term bets over the next 20 years. I will be gifting this portfolio to my future kids someday. I hope to use these memos as an educational tool to teach them about the world. With any luck, managing the portfolio will become a shared activity to collaborate on as they grow up.

It is one of the main reasons why I invest.

Performance from the first 16 months:
‌‌Month #1 Aug 2020: $ARKK -16%
Month #2 Sep 2020: $ARKG -22%
Month #3 Oct 2020: $BTC.X +265%
Month #4 Nov 2020: $BTC.X +132%
Month #5 Dec 2020: $NVDA +82%
Month #6 Jan 2021: $VT +8%
Month #7 Feb 2021: $PACB -61%
Month #8 Mar 2021: $TSM -3%
Month #9 Apr 2021: $KLIC +2%
Month #10 May 2021: $TTD +22%
Month #11 Jun 2021: $ETH.X +39%
Month #12 Jul 2021: $ETH.X +30%
Month #13 Aug 2021: $ROKU -62%
Month #14 Sept 2021: $ETH.X 0%
Month #15 Oct. 2021: $RBLX -32%
Month #16 Nov. 2021 $APPS -27%
Month #17 Dec. 2021 $VMEO -28%
Month #18 Jan. 2022 Cash 0%

Total portfolio return: 17%

In January I didn't make a buy— markets have fallen a ton and there isn't necessarily any mandate to buy a new stock every month. Roku and Pacific Biosciences have gotten torched; everything bought after September of last year is down 30%.

Addition for February: Opendoor $OPEN

My thoughts on Opendoor can be found here.

Opendoor is a very risky bet. They're extremely early in what they're trying to do. Over 20 years, this will likely be either a 0 or home-run.
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Question: why are some tickers green, and others red? Is that based on the most recent trading day’s change in price?
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Digital Turbine $APPS Earnings Call Highlights!
Digital Turbine $APPS delivered great results yesterday, and the earnings call was full of bullish comments on the future of the company. Here are a few quotes that stood out to me.

SingleTap
  • "After trying for many years, we proved in 2021, there's a real business with SingleTap as the growth broke out in a major way as revenues increased 800% year-over-year."
Fyber Operating Leverage:
  • "Fyber's full quarterly results were impressive, showcasing year-over-year growth of nearly 50%. Even more impressive is Fyber's EBITDA increased over 150% and year-over-year. In other words, Fyber is not only accelerating growth on the top line, but it's now at that critical inflection point of scale that enables accelerating operating leverage in the core business."
Device Footprint:
  • "We've now passed over 800 million devices that our software has been installed on, including 68 million in the December quarter. We're excited to begin working with new partners such as Oppo and Vivo and are also excited to begin expanding further with existing partners such as Samsung and Telefonica."
Lifetime Monetization:
  • "Our revenues from Dynamic Installs grew by over 20% year-over-year in the December quarter, but now only represent 15% of our total consolidated revenues compared to over 50% last year, as the company has been repositioned to a monetization over the life of the device company versus just the monetization first activation company."
Regulation:
  • "Given our unique position with operators and OEMs, we see today's regulatory environment as a tailwind, not a headwind for our business."

Love the summary! I haven't had a chance to listen to earnings, so I appreciate it very much! 🙏
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Commonstock is a social network that amplifies the knowledge of the best investors, verified by actual track records for signal over noise. Community members can link their existing brokerage accounts and share their real time portfolio, performance and trades (by percent only, dollar amounts never shared). Commonstock is not a brokerage, but a social layer on top of existing brokerages helping to create more engaged and informed investors.