Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.1m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 7
Hello friends, I've been continuously evaluating my portfolio over the weekend and I want to share with you what my end actions/conclusions are:

  • I sold $AMPL. For those not familiar, Amplitude is a leader in product and behavioral analytics which puts seemingly random data into a perspective. They compete with players such as Mixpanel or Pendo. All of those are pretty strong competitors, which on its own isn't a deal breaker, in theory all of those could win simultaneously as the space is huge. But, those insights get sent over into CDPs or Customer Data Platforms. Customer data platforms are basically a software which combines the data from all sorts of tools - like Amplitude - to create a centralized customer database containing data on all touch points and interactions with the product/service. Segment is no.1 in the space, used by huge players, acquired recently by Twilio (which I own). Now I realize that regardless of whether Amplitude, Mixpanel or Pendo wins the customer, they are likely using Twilio already for at least something and so the network effects kick in. Therefore I decided to play this space through $TWLO which is more diverse and not focused on just one product, but instead has a lot of functionality and owns the top player in the CDP which is where that data from Amplitude and others comes from anyways. So I'll have exposure. I just prefer that upper layer over the end layer.

  • I spent basically the whole day yesterday trying to understand $SNOW better, evaluating their first mover advantage when it comes to data evolution in cloud vs legacy, their relationship with SMBs and overall the culture of the company. I'm very impressed and the company fits a lot of my checkmarks. Frank maybe isn't the most visible CEO out there, but I somewhat admire his laser focus on innovation, not getting too comfortable with yourself, ... basically pushing the limits at all times. Both $MDB and $SNOW fit many of investing themes I build my portfolio around and give me an exposure to broad set of customers, even better so to those just scaling up whose success will be reflected in the amount they pay to those because of their usage based pricing. $PLTR does something similar, but their Data Mesh is way more early in the process and Palantir overall has way less clients (although more capitalized) than those two. These 3 companies I believe are the best of breed when it comes to anything data. In conclusion, I essentially dismissed Snowflake due to the valuation since the listing, I knew something but not nearly as much as I do today. Now that I'm better informed I decided to add this one into my portfolio. This no doubt is a very HQ company!

  • I also added more shares of $PATH today as I believe this is an incredible opportunity to load up more shares of this incredible beast!
Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.1m follower assets
Brief news 14/4/22
$AFRM published a research that shows a major generational division when it comes to American's response to inflation.

  • 73% of GenZ/Mills and 66% of US consumers in total are concerned that rising costs will prevent them from being able to pay for the things and experiences they want to achieve this year
  • The highest amount (38%) to prioritize purchases for the home
  • When it comes to deprioritization, 53% to spend loss on restaurants, 47% on entertainment and 34% on beauty
  • 53% of GenZ/Mills to spend less this year in reaction to rising costs
  • 81% of GenX/Boomers to spend the same or more this year
  • As a result of rising costs, about 23% GenX/Boomers are likely to use a "BNPL" option like Affirm over the next month, even larger amount - 41% in GenZ/Mills demographics

$AAPL announced that their suppliers more than doubled their use of clean energy over the last year, with over 10 gigawatts operational today out of nearly 16 gigawatts in total commitments in the coming years. This way, they avoided 13,9M metric tons of carbon emissions last year. Today, 213 of Apple's manufacturing partners have pledged to power all Apple production with renewables across 25 countries, and made joint investments into renewable projects all around the world, including 500MWs of solar and other renewables in China and Japan. In Europe, 11 suppliers made such a commitments bringing the impact to 25 European countries, for example in Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark. In the US, they made investments into solar plant in Texas and made commitments with companies such as DuPont and Micron. These commitments should enable Apple to become carbon neutral across their whole supply chain as of 2030. As a reminder, their global operations are carbon neutral since 2020.

$AMZN launched their first Amazon Kids+ original mobile games.

$AMPL appointed their first Chief Customer Officer - Lambert Walsh, who previously worked for 6 years at DocuSign $DOCU.

$DDOG expanded their Watchdog AI Engine with 2 new capabilities - Log Anomaly Detection and Root Cause Analysis.

$ENPH expanded Battery Storage offerings in Iowa.

$GOOGL published some 2021 Google Cloud stats - stating managed cloud services grew at a 73% CAGR + Google Cloud partners globally averaged an 86% ROI for their Google Cloud business.

$NVDA added new games to their GeForce NOW, notably Need for Speed HEAT and Plants vs. Zombies Garden Warfare 2.

$PLTR set to unveil a new suite of products available withing the Apollo platform on Apollo Demo Day on April 27th.

$SPOT has renamed their live listening feature to Spotify Live, says Spotify Live can now be found both as a stand-alone app and as a livestream function inside the Spotify app.
Nathan Worden's avatar
$310.5m follower assets
'The Market' Stock Pitching Game is this Friday, April 8th at 1:00pm EST!
"The Market" stock pitching game is a bracket-style elimination tournament for investors.

Six brave contestants will each give a three minute pitch on an investment idea.
Quality discussion ensues—
The audience decides the best pitch of the day!

Here's an example of the kind of discussion that goes down at the game: VIDEO

Sign up to get the Zoom link for the Friday, April 8th game HERE

Here's the awesome lineup!:

@iangray — Wix $WIX
@paulcerro — Xponential Fitness $EXP
@sohaibab9 — Cardnial Energy $CRLFF, TSE $CJ
@youngmoneycapital — Iteris $ITI
@growthinvesting — Amplitude $AMPL
@strib — Mcdonalds $MCD

What is the best investment idea of the month? The Market will decide!

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Samuel Meciar's avatar
$7.1m follower assets
Since I'm having issues with IBKR connection again, I'll share what happened with my portfolio, for those who are interested.

  • I got rid of $VLTA as I didn't like recent developments... they revised Q3 results, found accounting irregularities, also moved Q4 earnings to an unknown date, and then we got a news about CEO/Founder and President/Co-founder leaving at the same time from executive positions and board of directors, that's something that rings my bell and thus I sold. I'm planning to put that money instead into $TSLA which has a great supercharger network, and then $PLTR since they are invested in Tritium $DCFC which is a charger maker, partnered with many larger brands and for example a popular EV charging network in Europe - Ionity.

  • I completed my positions in $SNAP and $AMPL yesterday
  • I initiated a position in $ROKU

Have a nice day! ✌️
My Wartime Portfolio: 02/24/22
A few notable changes in the past 3-4 months:
  • $RBLX - New position, I see this as a $100B company
  • $NU - New position, A true gem similar to my $AFRM position
  • $IOT - Disrupting fleets and building an IOT monopoly
  • $WRBY - New position, disrupting the vision industry successfully
  • $BIRD - New position, disrupting the footwear industry
  • $AMPL - Powering Product Led Growth for Modern SaaS Businesses
  • $PLTR - Its a privilege to be a part of Peter Thiel's vision for enterprise software

Ask me any questions you have about any of these, looking to learn and add value to the community!
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Bought some $WKME and $AMPL today
Both play in the enterprise digital adoption space that i am long-term bullish

$WKME is an awesome category with an above-average product. Stock is now cheap at ~4X revenue while growing 30%, after today's 20% drop

$AMPL is an awesome product in an awesome category. Stock fell 50% based on a horrible and confusing forecast (how can growth fall from 65% to 35%, when RPOs are healthy). Ironically stock is still around 8-9X revenue. I'm going to assume a bit of sandbagging, but regardless I think this is a great company to own long term and I'm not passing up a 50% discount even if they 'only grow 35%'

The 3 stocks I'm not buying even though they got hammered in the last couple of days post-earnings

$FSLY Always thought their technology was subpar to $NET and $AKAM and customer concentration. Stock is cheap, but i think company still is below-par

$WIX again stock is cheap, but I'm not knowledgeable enough on this market, especially the impact macro has on the SMBs they serve.

$PLTR I don't get this company or stock. Too mystic. I don't think the 'AI' is all that. It's still not cheap. They are making non-strategic investments etc. I don't think highly of their management. Their customer concentration risk is insane (and yes I'm pretty sure I will get tons of push back on this darling stock:)

Now I'm going for a walk to listen to $WKME call and decide if I want to buy more. and yes of course I'll do this on the Fincredible mobile app (which will be released soon). In the meantime you can use browser at www.fincredible.ai for walk + listens)
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." - Mike Tyson
After a two month hiatus, it feels great to be back on Commonstock. Growth stocks declined by 30%+ in the past two months, I sat out and bought more $COIN $AMPL $DOCU $ASAN $BTC.X

I've seen this happen before in Q1 16 and Q4 18. Growth stock multiples contract, people freak out, and the paper hands are on display.

I still don't know if I made the right moves, but humbly I went back to fundamentals and re-underwrote what I own. Key learnings:

  1. There's only so many great opportunities out there. I only want to hold my 10 best ideas (I still own too many names at 15-20). If I am going to spend this much time, energy and risk, I better be in my best conviction ideas. Otherwise, I don't win enough when I am right (bad), or I would have been better off buying an index fund (the right option for most).
  2. I highly suggest folks check out "Nothing but Net" by internet equity research analyst Mark Mahaney. One helpful insight: tech stocks move 1/3 based on Macro, 1/3 based on Sector, 1/3 on Fundamentals. I overindex on fundamentals too much (I need to know what I am buying and need to pay more attention to sector - ever look at the multiples of Healthcare SaaS vs Marketing SaaS?). I can't control Global Macro and just need to be mindful here.
  3. The Commonstock community has a ton of great research. I am glad to be back :) Cheers to 2022!
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