August Watchlist Update
Below is an update on my watchlist for August in preparation of my Birthday Buys in January! I am targeting to add 1 to 2 positions in each portfolio. Some of the great July Ideas recommendations have made their way onto my watchlist 👀
Taxable
Removed:
$COST - I have a number of other very strong alternatives that I would add ahead of Costco, so I removed it from my watchlist.
Added:
$DE - Jumped to a 5/6 to tie $DMLP as an Industrials option.
$F - Potentially breaking one of my rules by choosing not to invest in auto manufacturers. This was a July Ideas rec, and ranks as a 5/6 to tie $DMLP as an Industrials option.
$CAT - Jumped to a 5/6 to tie $DMLP as an Industrials option.
Roth IRA
Removed:
$WM - Dropped from a 5/6 to a 4.5/6 over the course of July. Added $AY, which has a higher ranking at 5/6.
$ALL - Dropped from a 5/6 to 4.5/6 over the course of July. Still have $OZK as strongest potential Financials picks ranking at 5.5/6.
$AFL - $OZK increased from a 5/6 to a 5.5/6, which is now my strongest potential financials play. $AFL has therefore been removed.
Added:
$RICK - July Ideas rec. Ranking at a 5/6 and strong Sin Stock option.
$AY - July Ideas rec. Ranking 5/6 as a Utilities option.
$CAH - Jumped up to a 5/6 in July to tie $AMGN as a top Healthcare option.
$REGN - umped up to a 5/6 in July to tie $AMGN as a top Healthcare option.

​My predicted picks in July were $PENN in my Taxable account and $AMGN in my Roth IRA. Now in August, my picks have changed to $CAT in my Taxable and $OZK in my Roth IRA.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on my picks and thought process!
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Dividend Portfolio Update
As you may know, I write many updates, economic analysis, and opinion pieces on my website, you can read my most recent full portfolio update here. However, it's been a while since I've shared an update on Commonstock so let's do one!

To date, I have invested $10,550 into the account the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $10,615.85. That’s a total gain of 0.62%. The account is up $241.52 for the week which is a 2.33% gain.

We started building this portfolio on 9/24/2021 and, even with this rough last week, when compared to the S&P 500 we are outperforming the market so far! Within that same timeframe, the S&P 500 is down -7.3% whereas our portfolio is up 0.62%! I love tracking my portfolio against a benchmark like the S&P. The above chart comes from Sharesight which makes portfolio and dividend management a breeze!

We added $200 in cash to the account this week. The trades made this week will be broken out below

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week and the blue ones are positions that I reinvested dividends into. The positions that we added to increased our annual dividend income by $11 at a yield of 4.45%.

This week we received three dividends: $0.74 from McCormick ($MKC), $4.24 from Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF ($XYLD), and $2.03 from Comcast ($CMCSA).

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically. The Coca-Cola dividend was actually received last Friday, but got reinvested on the following trading day.

Dividends received for 2022: $197.83
Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $220.75

Below is a breakdown of my trades this week!

July 25th
  • McCormick ($MKC) – dividend reinvested
July 26th
  • Ecolab ($ECL) – added 0.2 shares at $157.75 (short term trade)
  • $XYLD – dividend reinvested
July 27th
  • ETRACS 2x Levered ETF ($SMHB) – added 1 share at $8.78
  • Ecolab ($ECL) – sold 0.2 shares at $160.10
  • $SCHD – added 0.13775 shares at $72.60 (recurring investment)
  • $XYLD – added 0.230044 shares at $43.47 (recurring investment)
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – dividend reinvested
July 28th
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – added 1 share at $39.26
  • Intel ($INTC) – added 1 share at $39.76
  • Ally ($ALLY) – added 0.25 shares at $32.28
July 29th
  • Comcast ($CMCSA) – added 1 share at $37.92
  • Intel ($INTC) – added 1 share at $35.42
  • Ally ($ALLY) – added 0.35 shares at $32.89

This week I mostly focused on $INTC and $CMCSA as I indicated in the last portfolio review. Both had some rough earnings misses which gave some good buying opportunities. I’m not too concerned about $CMCSA’s earnings, most segments of the business performed as expected, however economic contractions affected the business more than anticipated. $INTC is a different story. Though they were also affected by the economy, revenues were way lower than expected and guidance was not peachy at all. This poor performance was to be expected while they build out the foundry business, but the severity of it was not. I’m still bullish on the long term for both, hence the buys at the end of the week.

Next week I plan on keeping my eyes $INTC again for the ex-dividend date coming up, and $ATVI, $AFL, $SBUX, $AMGN, and $O for their earnings reports as potential buys.
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$AMGN and $AFL are inching towards the top of my watchlist for my January birthday buys! Will be interesting following your positions the next few months

Which brokerage are you using? Interested in the fractional shares
Add a comment…
This Weeks Action
A little more stability in the portfolios this week. Considering dipping my toe back in the water for my Growth portfolio next week.

Income Portfolio: Increased position size in $VIG once again. Opened new positions in $HD $AFL $AOS and $DVY . Collected dividends on $BBY .

Growth Portfolio: No action

Speculative: Increased position in $DOGE.X and opened starter in $MANA.X both pushing through and holding their 50 day SMA. Will be watching both carefully with SL set at 20%
Watchlist - Birthday Buys for 2023
Each year I make Birthday Buys as a way to slowly diversify. With about half a year to go, I decided to update my Watchlist on Commonstock to reflect the companies I am tracking for this upcoming January.
I have a long Watchlist in each portfolio that I rank using the same Scorecard methodology as my active portfolios. This helps me make educated decisions on which positions to add. I use a combination of the Scorecard score, portfolio sector/industry weighting, and existing underperforming holdings in specific sectors/industries.
Below is my current Watchlist and a breakdown on each:

Taxable
I have exposure to all of my target sectors, so future additions are to continually improve portfolio and add great companies.
$DMLP - This is the highest ranked company in my Watchlist at a 5/6. It has outperformed the S&P over the past 3 years, has a P/E under 25, Dividend Yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, and I am underweight in Industrials. One concern is that the current dividend is more than 100% of their FCF. I need to do more research on this company in the next few months to understand it better.
$PENN - I have tracked $PENN for a long time. I am a huge fan of Barstool, which introduced me to the company. Additionally, with the expansion of legalized gaming in the US, I think there is a long runway for this company. $PENN has had a sharp sell off and is at a much more palatable valuation. My current "Sin Stocks" are $CRON and $BUD, which have been less than underwhelming. Therefore, I am looking to add a stronger position to this sector. $PENN scores a 4.5/5 on my Scorecard - has outperformed the market over the past 3 years, but has underperformed recently. Has positive FCF, but no dividend. Has a P/E less than 25, and is an underweight industry in my portfolio.
$COST - $COST is a strong, defensive play. I currently hold $TGT in the Retail sector of my portfolio. $COST currently has a higher ranking in my Scorecard than $TGT with a 3.5 vs 3. This would be an opportunity to incrementally improve. $COST has outperformed the S&P over the past 3 years, has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, and is a company and business I believe in.
Roth IRA
I am continuing to build a balanced portfolio and initiate positions in unrepresented sectors - Consumer Discretionary, Defense, Financials, Healthcare, Sin Stocks and Utilities.
$AMGN - Highest ranked Healthcare company in my Watchlist with a 5.5/6. $AMGN has outperformed the market, has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, dividend yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, and has a P/E under 25. The only thing holding $AMGN back from a perfect score is I have only given it a Medium conviction rating. I will continue to research this company and potentially bump my conviction to High prior to January.
$LMT - Highest ranked Defense company in my Watchlist with a 5.5/6. $LMT has a dividend payout less than 50% of FCF, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my current portfolio, has a P/E less than 25, and I have High conviction in this company. The only thing preventing $LMT from a 6/6 is underperforming the market in the last year.
$AFL - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $AFL has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$ALL - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $ALL has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$OZK - Tied for highest ranked Financials company with a 5/6. $OZK has a dividend to FCF ratio of less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my existing portfolio, and has a P/E less than 25. I will need to continue to research and compare to the other Financials companies in the watchlist to differentiate the companies further.
$WM - Highest ranked Utilities company in my Watchlist with a 5/6. $WM has outperformed the market, has a dividend to FCF less than 50%, has a dividend yield in the top 5% of my portfolio. P/E is currently a little high at 34.
If I were to make a gut decision right now, I would be adding $PENN in my Taxable account and $AMGN in my Roth IRA.
Would love to hear from anybody who currently holds any of these companies or has read/written any research on them.
Other alternatives in these industries are welcome as well!
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Where would I be able to read more about your scorecard process? I have been trying to develop one myself to make sure that I really know what I'm buying and am sticking to my strategies (and not, as I call it, buying the new shiny object in front of me).

As for the specific companies, I am a huge $PENN bull for the reasons you laid out, and my background is in the waste industry. While you can't go wrong with $WM, I'd encourage you to look at $WCN as well, as they are some of the best operators in the space, and have a little more room for growth, as they are not treated as one of the big dogs, despite their size. I personally have made my bet with $GFL, but I'm comfortable with less dividend right now and more volatility, because I think they will be able to keep making acquisitions to get to the size of the other big 3 over the next few years.
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Weekly Economic Analysis and Portfolio Update
Below is a paraphrase of the full portfolio update and market review article I write weekly. Click here for a full portfolio with more statistics, an economic review, plus a break down of all my trades (which you can see in my Commonstock profile as well), and what stocks I'll be looking to buy next week.

Market Review

"The first week of June was a short one! Short in terms of trading days, but also short in terms of the market movement as it failed build on last week’s gains. The market this week showed renewed seller’s interest off of the back of economic concerns, earnings outlooks (looking at you Microsoft), and monetary policy.

As discussed in our monthly market recap, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jaime Dimon said that he sees a storm ahead, whether it’s an “economic hurricane” or a slight down pour, we need to ready. He and JPM will do so by being conservative with their balance sheet. On Friday, Elon Must said that he had a bad feeling about the economy and that his electric car company Tesla (TSLA) needs to freeze hiring and cut 10% of staff.

Every S&P sector finished Friday in the red with the exception of the energy sector. Healthcare, real estate, financial, and consumer staples were the worst performers. Energy was the best performer followed by information technology at a distant second. The energy sector’s performance this week was a result of oil prices pushing higher off an announcement by the EU to ban 90% of Russian crude imports by the end of the year and an announcement from OPEC that they will boost production targets for July and August. OPEC’s oil decision is sound on the surface, however, oil traders saw it as insufficient to meet demand. Demand is expected to rise in the wake of China’s reopening and the EU’s oil ban. WTI crude started the week at $115.07 and are now at $118.87. It had just come off of highs of $120.46 which is the highest level seen since March.

Portfolio

To date, I have invested $9,220 into the account, the total value of all positions plus any cash on hand is $9,497.74. That’s a total gain of 3.01%. The account is down $85.99 for the week which is a 0.9% loss.

I love tracking my portfolio against a benchmark like the S&P. The above chart comes from Sharesight which makes portfolio and dividend management a breeze!

Below is a table of everything we are invested in so far. There you can see my number of shares, shares bought through dividend reinvestments, average cost, gains, and more. The tickers in green are positions that I bought shares in this week.

Dividends

This week we received four dividends. $1.00 from Aflac ($AFL), $3.12 from Intel ($INTC), $2.94 from $XYLD, and $1.96 from Cummins ($CMI).

In my portfolio, all positions have dividend reinvestment enabled. I don’t hold onto the dividend, I don’t try to time the reinvestment, I just let my broker do it automatically. All dividends were reinvested.

Dividends received for 2022: $131.86

Portfolio’s Lifetime Dividends: $154.79"

Again, click here for a full portfolio with more statistics, an economic review, plus a break down of all my trades (which you can see in my Commonstock profile as well), and what stocks I'll be looking to buy next week.
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$AFL Dividend Machine continues
Despite Aflac facing tough comps heading into 2022 the company still decided to raise its dividend.

Book value fell on lower premiums signed to kick off Q1.

but...

adjusted book value is up? And in fact, grew by nearly 7% after all the mess of currency translation.

Still overall revenue shrunk by 10% but interesting still beat analyst estimates of $5.16b.

This is being led by Japan's total sales of nearly 15%.

Despite this US sales are up 19% Y/Y is very good news.

Despite this, the company increased its dividend by over 20% from $0.33 to $0.40.

And even despite the 40 years of dividend growth $AFL still only has a payout ratio of ~25%.

Might be a company to dive a little further on but I must admit after reading through the latest earnings report I have no idea what's going on so I might just stay away.

One interesting thing I will leave with is a shareholder program Aflac has where every share you hold for 48 months has the voting power of 10 shares. Very interesting way Aflac encourages shareholders over the long term
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European DGI's avatar
$15.8m follower assets
Q1 2022 earnings reports from many Dividend Stocks
Buckle up everyone, this will be a crazy week! There are so many earnings coming up and this list isn't even complete!

Having said that, what's your favorite company reporting their earnings this week?


#Earnings #stockmarket
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Derek's avatar
$107.6m follower assets
$AFL is one of those boring dividend companies that has been raising its dividend for the last four decades.

This time they are raising its dividend by a whopping 22%

At 9 times earnings it still looks cheap at these levels

Thanks for putting $AFL on our radar, @emf. YCharts shows me that P/E of 9 side by side with an industry average of 6.7. Any thoughts why Aflac trades for a premium to its peers? I also notice Aflac is at 1.1x book (compare to its 10 year median of 1.5x) so any way you look at it, this company looks cheap historically speaking.
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Want to practice some technical analysis? Look at the Dividend Aristocrats.
I'm going to call them DA for this memo so I don't have to type it out every time.

I've been updating some of my charts this morning and I noticed that updating the DA seemed a lot easier and quicker than the others; their patterns and trends form over longer timespans than many of the other stocks and this makes them much easier to identify.

With nothing to back up my hunch, I suspect that this is because people tend to buy and hold DAs to take advantage of the dividends rather than actively trade them. That's not to say they can't be short-term traded, but I think they're pretty good candidates to let you practice or even dip your toe in the water for the first time.

Let's see some nice examples.

Without adding anything to the graph we can already see that it's been trading sideways for a while; 6 months in fact.

If you zoom in to the recent 6 months, you can quite easily draw the boundaries of the trading range.

You could then use these boundaries as quite simple but very effective indicators as to when to open a long/short position, when to take your profit, and where to put your Stop Losses.
Trading ranges like this are how I started my technical analysis and where I continue to have a large proportion of success.

Atmos isn't quite as easy to see on the daily chart but swap to the weeklies and it filters out some of the noise.

You can see that the highs appear to be decreasing, so we can draw an upper boundary up there. And, ignoring the large outlier (although the open fits nicely), the bottom looks fairly flat so we can draw a horizontal support there.

And if you see patterns that have since been broken
a) that's fantastic, because you're seeing patterns
b) don't be afraid to draw them and keep them for later.

See below at how an earlier downward trendline restricted upwards price movements (purple circles) but, after it was broken, the exact same line was used as a support (blue circles).

Whether on the weekly or daily chart for $GD, a nice uptrend that started this time last year can be seen, with the price bouncing from it a number of times.

From it's current price point, Wall Street gives it an attractive upside of 20%! You could certainly justify buying it now for that 20% and the promise of dividends, or you could try to squeeze out a little more by optimistically waiting for the next bounce from the trend to get a better entry price.

Another nice trading range here, with the support coming in to play 8 months ago.

You could play $XOM in a couple of ways using the chart above:
a) expect a breakout above the resistance due to the oil prices
b) expect the oil bubble to pop and the stock to drop and short it when it hits the resistance
c) both - if you play for one and the opposite happens, simply close your trade (unless your Stop Loss has done it for you) and trade in the other direction.

I believe there are currently 65 DA and there are patterns in all of them (some quite apparent and others not so) and, because they seem to form more slowly, they are fantastic for practicing with.

Congratulations! You are now doing Technical Analysis! :)
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