I’ve been doing a lot of research on this name. I know @stockopine owns this name but I believe he’s not currently adding to it. I have been reading a lot of his work on this name. Would love to hear more again from people as I feel like this a forgotten about SaaS stock with a bunch of tailwinds coming hopefully and growing revenues and a management team that is very active
You are right Christian. We do not plan to add more at this stage but that doesn’t necessarily make the company less appealing. It all depends on your strategy. It would be great if others shared their views as well.
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Weekend Research
Hey everyone just updating you on names that I’ve been looking at heavy yesterday and today on this 3 day weekend. Any input of course is greatly appreciated. $UPS and $ADSK
I did some work on $ADSK a while ago and even made a video on it. My conclusions we're the company is a solid compounder with the major risk of bad incentives for management. Much of the bonus unlocks for management we're based solely on growing revenue. I pointed out that this could lead management to making acquisitions purely to grow revenue without giving much thought to actual business quality.

Given Autodesks heavy reliance on growth by acquisition I figured it was something worth noting. That was almost a year ago now and I believe things have changed but I think it would be worth taking another look at bonus incentives.
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StockOpine's avatar
$41.3m follower assets
What moves this stock? - Autodesk
In this short memo, we will go over 4 pillars that can move the stock price of $ADSK .
  • AEC Industry (Architecture, Engineering, Construction)
  • Monetization of non-compliant users
  • Manufacturing and Fusion 360
  • Profitability
1) AEC Industry (Architecture, Engineering, Construction)
Even though this is macro related, it can create short term headwinds for the company. Autodesk offers software solutions in AEC which includes amongst other AutoCAD and Revit (Company’s BIM solution).
AEC and AutoCAD make 73% of revenue for fiscal year 2022.

Current economic environment including supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures can negatively affect the AEC industry which in turn can take a hit on demand for Autodesk’s solutions.
2) Monetization of Non-compliant users
Management claims to have 15 million non-compliant users which use the product actively and have the potential to be monetized.
Monetizing a fraction of those users can drive future revenue growth. Given that management considers monetization as part of their strategy, failure to do so can have an impact on the stock price.
3) Manufacturing and Fusion 360
In manufacturing, the Company sees a significant market opportunity with its solution Fusion 360 gaining momentum and growing by 53%, 3-year CAGR up to Q2’2022.
Below is a chart extracted from 2021 Investors’ Day exhibiting management’s expectations for future incremental revenue growth indicating a significant acceleration in the manufacturing segment.

Execution in the manufacturing segment is vital for the company to continue driving revenue growth.
4) Profitability
Management expects non-GAAP operating margins to expand to 36% in fiscal 2023 with a mid-term goal in the range of 38%-40% beyond fiscal year 2023.
Failing or exceeding profitability target set can drive the stock price in both directions.
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StockOpine's avatar
$41.3m follower assets
StockOpine's Portfolio
At the start of 2022 we set in motion the construction of StockOpine’s portfolio. So far, we purchased 7 stocks that fit our portfolio strategy (more details in our substack). Below we lay down a glimpse of our thesis:

  1. $GOOGL – Strong network of the Search Engine business and of YouTube and the continued momentum in Google cloud growth.
  2. $META – Largest user base in social media, opportunities to increase ARPU outside US and valuation.
  3. $PYPL – Leader in checkout, most accepted digital wallet, Venmo deal with $AMZN, wide product offering (optionality) and Ecommerce global market forecasts.
  4. $BKNG – Leader in OTA market, expected rebound in the travel industry, optionality (flights, rent a car, experience etc.) and valuation.
  5. $KLAC – Leader in the Semiconductor Metrology and Inspection equipment (4x nearest competitor), WFE market expectations, CAPEX plans of the big players ($INTC, $TSM and Samsung) and high returns on capital employed.
  6. $ADSK – High switching cost for its customers, existing installed base, non-compliant users opportunity, $1trillion infrastructure bill and accelerating adoption for BIM (Building Information Modeling).
  7. $ABNB – Leader in alternative accommodation, network effect, long-term stay opportunity, skin in the game and expected rebound in travel industry.

Subscribe to our newsletter for free to receive our research straight to your inbox and be part of our journey in identifying stocks that fit StockOpine’s portfolio strategy.
DuPont Analysis
Looking at numbers on the balance sheets and income statements could never be an outdated valuation method. Plugging those numbers into simple financial ratios like ROE, ROA, profit margin, etc. could right away indicate a company's performance. We could also tell where that company is in the industry and among its peers. That's why DuPont analysis is always one of my main methods when it comes to equity analysis besides other common and complex valuation frameworks. Additionally, by combining this quantitative analysis with other qualitative ones like SWOT and Macros thesis we would be able to have a more in-depth understanding of the firm's situation or what is influencing its performance.

This is a DuPont Analysis that I did for $ADSK as a volunteer equity analyst, let me know what you think!
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It looks like $ADSK ‘s Net Income / equity was more volatile than $BSY and $ADBE from 2018 to 2020. Was there anything that jumped out at you as to why it went from +38% to -154% and then +125%?
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StockOpine's avatar
$41.3m follower assets
Opening a position in Autodesk $ADSK
Yesterday, we initiated a small position in $ADSK (1,6% of our portfolio) at $174. We believe that Autodesk is a wide moat business and the current share price provides a buying opportunity in our opinion.

The size of our position will allow us to add to our investment in case there is further drop in price and the fundamentals remain untouched.

Disclaimer: Not a financial advice

You can read our Autodesk deep dive released in May here:

Steve Matt's avatar
$18.7m follower assets
$SNOW $ADSK $ZS Earnings: What I'm Looking For
Snowflake Inc. ($SNOW) - Reporting earnings Wednesday (5/25) afternoon

Here's what I'm looking for:

  • Continue improving gross and operating margins.
  • Keep the free cash flow coming.
  • Can total revenue and product revenue continue to grow >100% YoY?
  • International revenue has gone from 7% of total revenue in fiscal year 2019 (ending 1/31/2019) to 20% in this recent fiscal year. It's been over 20% for 3 consecutive quarters. Can they speed up the growth outside the US?
  • NRR, customer count, and customers generating >$1M in revenue.
  • My favorite metric: RPOs. Show me the demand for business is growing faster than your revenue.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 12th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.63 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 4
Annualized return: (45.5%)
Annualized $SPY return: 5.2%
Annualized $QQQ return: (-3.9%)
Autodesk, Inc. ($ADSK) - Reporting earnings Wednesday (5/26) afternoon
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • Gross margins >90% consecutively for 3 years (11 quarters). Maintain that, please.
  • Operating margin dipped a smidge in fiscal year 2022 (ending 1/31/2022). Blip or a trend?
  • Recurring revenue percent >96.5%.

  • Just like Snowflake, show me a really strong RPO.
  • As this market requires, copious amounts of free cash flow.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 34th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 0.36 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 1
Annualized return: (59.1%)
Annualized $SPY return: (34.5%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (50.0%)
Zscaler, Inc. ($ZS) - Reporting earnings Wednesday (5/26) afternoon
Here's what I'm looking for:
  • They dropped full year guidance after Q2 by 2.3%. It's too much to ask for a guidance raise but maintaining 1,047.5MM at the midpoint would be nice.
  • Again, the market demands FCF and ZS has been providing that. I will be watching to see what they produce this Q and on a TTM basis.
  • Calculated billings.
  • I don't remember if Zscaler updates customer information and DBNRR quarterly or annually. I'll be looking to see those metrics if they do quarterly.

Current position:
Total cost basis: 39th highest in my portfolio
Time since first buy: 1.46 years
Number of purchases since initial position: 4
Annualized return: (55.2%)
Annualized $SPY return: (3.4%)
Annualized $QQQ return: (14.2%)
StockOpine's avatar
$41.3m follower assets
$ADSK drops ahead of earnings report
  • Deutsche Bank analyst Bhavin Shah cut his rating to hold from buy. Price target to $225 from $275.
  • Stifel Nicolaus analyst Adam Borg kept his rating at buy. Price target to $230 from $285.
  • Both cited "mixed" results from conversations with "platinum-level" partners.

Samuel Meciar's avatar
$24m follower assets
Portfolio changes - update 6
I decided to sell $DASH and $ADSK. No specific reasons, I just find better opportunities elsewhere within the themes. Both are strong companies with lots to like, but I have to follow the process of adding to highest conviction, and I simply just see better R/R at these levels elsewhere.

As $ADSK replacement, I added to my $U position (cost average $57,08) - for those who care lol. By doing so, $U is back to I believe my top 10 when it comes to weighting, even as I'm down roughly 33% on my position. I'm happy to have it higher as I believe I'm looking at lucrative R/R here and Unity has tons of optionality, too!

So that concludes my portfolio changes for the week, I wish everybody a great weekend!
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