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@yaninvests
Yan Carlos Ospina
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Conversation with a loan officer
One of my clients today was a loan officer and he said for the rates to go down, unemployment has to go up.

So when there’s less people working, the rates go down? That’s weird. It’s all about supply and demand and the way the economy works is a little weird.

We also talked about how most people can’t buy a house right now and that the institutions like BlackRock and vanguard are buying entire communities to rent them out.

Thoughts? What do you think needs to happen for the interest rates to go down? What’s your prediction for the rest of 2023 and the beginning of 2024? Will this get worse before it gets better?

It's a little more complicated than a simple relationship between interest rates and unemployment. If you think about the post-GFC period between 2011 - 2019, we had low unemployment and very tepid inflation which allowed the Fed to keep interest rates low (some say too low for too long).
The correlation between interest rates and unemployment comes from traditional "Phillips Curve" thinking which is now considered by economists to be too simplistic a model. Interest rates are a function of inflation. When inflation is high, we have to increase interest rates to cool down the economy. When the supply and velocity of household discretionary spending outstrips the available supply of goods and services, inflation can be the result because we're bidding up the prices of goods in limited supply (demand-driven inflation). On the other side of the coin, when the supply of goods is constrained and workers are demanding higher wages, we get supply-side inflation. Both supply and demand-driven inflation are related because it can be like a dog chasing its tail. Workers demanding higher wages because of inflation, thereby driving more inflation.
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The inflation we've experienced this last couple of years has primarily been supply-side inflation. Coming out of the Covid pandemic, you just can't ramp up manufacturing and raw material supply at the drop of a hat. But people coming out of lockdowns had a pile of money saved up to spend and they wanted to party. So demand outstripped the sluggish availability of supply. Raw material costs exploded and this had to be passed on to the consumers. You would've noticed this during a trip to the supermarket after the pandemic and saw plenty of empty shelves. We just couldn't ramp up manufacturing operations fast enough. Now we're at the point where workers are demanding higher wages in response to inflated living costs that were originally caused by supply constraints.
We don't necessarily need to go into a recession and/or see unemployment rise higher to see a moderation in inflation. Inflation can come down if we can increase productivity and produce the supply of goods and services to meet the demand. Technology is generally deflationary because it improves productivity and yields.
Obviously higher interest/mortgage rates are going to bite into discretionary spending, so an increase in productivity in the output of goods and services could be met halfway by a moderation in household spending. This would lower inflation and the Fed can then lower interest rates. This can all happen while the unemployment rate remains unmoved.
Effectively, there are many variables sitting between interest rates and unemployment and any one of them can produce the moderation of inflation and interest rates that we're looking for without an adverse increase in the unemployment rate.
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PSEC: is the dividend safe?
Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC) is a business development company that specializes in various financial activities as well as real estate and private equity investments. It invests in several sectors, especially energy and industrials. Its assets are very diversified and the company has seen increasing revenues in the past 3 years. However, the company itself has not grown very much in the same time frame. The dividend has been consistent since 2018, paying .06 per share or a yield of 11.92%, as the share price is roughly $6. The dividends are also paid monthly. Consistent dividend payments are one indicator of company health but not the only indicator.

Another indicator of company health is price appreciation or depreciation. If the price has been rising year after year, this is typically a good sign. If it has been declining, this could indicate financial struggles which would make it a riskier investment. Over the past year, the stock has depreciated by -16.69%, -20.32% over the past 5 years, and -46.50% over the last 10 years. This could also indicate that the company is not reinvesting back into the growth of its business and is paying a dividend it cannot sustain long term. No investment is without risk and being in the financial sector, this company may be affected by economic cycles and disruptions in the financial market.

PSEC’s dividend has long been attracting investors to its dividend yield of 11.92% but is it safe? You should never invest in a stock only because of the dividend. There is more to examine before making a decision. Examining the track record, we can see that the company has kept its dividend payments consistent for 45 consecutive quarters, proving a commitment to shareholders and representing a strong financial standing. They have been able to maintain the dividend because of their diversified investment portfolio. Being diversified helps to have a form of protection when a type of investment underperforms. They have also kept the payout ratio around 72%. This ratio indicates how much of their earnings are typically paid out as dividends. Ideally, this should be below 60% but it is common to see a higher ratio with financial and real estate companies. While they have not experienced much recent company growth, they have been able to provide a balance between rewarding shareholders and maintaining financial stability.

As with any investment, it is important to check on the stock’s performance a few times per year as well as any news that could affect the company. As of now, August 2023, I am buying PSEC in my portfolio for the reliable although not increasing, dividend income.

Food for thought…
A depreciating etf/stock might not always be a bad investment. Think of it this way. If it’s been depreciating recently, that doesn’t mean you’ve lost as much as it has depreciated because you are buying it at a discount every time you buy it. So you’re reducing your cost basis

EV or pass
Why or why not?
Would you consider buying an electric vehicle now or in the future?
71%Yes
28%No

7 VotesPoll ended on: 6/24/2023

I would consider it... but it would have to be meaningfully less expensive than my other options.
+ 3 comments
AI is crazy
For those of you that have been following artificial intelligence, you know how crazy it has become. AI has been able to replicate human tasks such as writing articles, driving cars, diagnosing diseases, interacting as a friend via text messages and videos, and more. It’s crazy how computers are replacing humans.
Chat gpt among others, is able to produce human like texts. This includes writing how tos, writing songs, generating a story when given a topic, planning a fitness program, writing essays, solving math problems, creating recipes, and the list goes on. Many jobs may be replaced and many students in school may use this program to cheat on assignments. It is hard to identify what is authentic and what is not.
Artificial intelligence is also being used extensively in the automotive industry to make cars safer, smarter, and more efficient. AI-powered sensors and algorithms are used to make self-driving cars a reality. These algorithms are designed to recognize and respond to multiple variables in real-time, including traffic signs, objects in the road, and pedestrians. AI algorithms can predict when a car is likely to require maintenance. Some companies using AI technology in vehicles include Tesla, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Toyota and Hyundai.
In healthcare, AI is being used to diagnose diseases, come up with personalized treatment recommendations, develop new drugs and treatments, analyze medical images, track vital signs, predict and prevent healthcare complications, and more. The use of AI is leading to many advances in healthcare, but will this result in may healthcare professionals losing their jobs? Can we trust a diagnosis developed by a computer? There are many concerns to consider in my opinion. Some companies using AI technology in healthcare include IBM Watson Health, Google, Verily Life Sciences, Babylon Health, Johnson & Johnson and Abbvie.
Are you lonely? Do you need someone to talk to? From the comfort of your home you can talk to a chatbot or a virtual friend. Some companies developing these bots include Replika, Kuki, and CaroynAI. Replika is an app that mimics human-like conversations and responds to human emotions. Kuki is an AI assistant that is capable of chatting with users about various topics and adapts to their personalities. Influencer, Caryn Marjorie, has cloned herself as an AI virtual girlfriend. She charges $1 per minute of chat. She worked with a team of developers that combined 2,000 hours of her YouTube content with OpenAI’s GPT-4 to create a virtual girlfriend version of herself. She engages in discussing plans for the future, sharing intimate feelings, and participating in sexual conversations.
Amazing advances in the way we do things with AI but this also raises many concerns. Where are we headed? What will our future look like? What will our kid’s future look like? How lazy will people become? How much of our private information is safe? Can we trust AI? How far will this go? Let me know what your thoughts are. AI is crazy.

What companies or ETFs are you investing in for AI?

Disappointed
M1 Finance has made a new update where they got rid of checking accounts. I like to use the checking account to pay for stuff with some of my dividends. I guess I’m done with m1.

How I Created my own ETF
I wanted to self manage my own fund of dividend stocks so I made my own etf on m1 finance. M1 is great for categorizing investments into pies. I categorized my stocks into pies according to the sector.

Criteria:

It is not a good idea to buy stocks just because they pay a dividend. You have to look at the whole picture. For my fund, I included stocks that pay a dividend yield of at least 3%, chose stocks across different sectors, and with a competitive advantage or essential operations. I also looked for stocks that had fairly stable or increasing price performance but I also included a few that don’t have a consistent increase in price. When I choose stocks, I do not care as much about appreciation because I do not plan on ever selling my investments. I prefer to collect cash flow instead of betting on a price going up to sell at a later date. The fund currently has a total of 55 holdings and a portfolio dividend yield of about 10%.

The current top 10 positions in my high yield etf include:

  1. $IMOS Chipmos technologies
  2. $WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance
  3. $MMM 3M
  4. $SBLK Star Bulk Carriers
  5. $EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping
  6. $VZ Verizon
  7. $RIO Rio Tinto Plc
  8. $SQM Sociedad Química y Mineral de Chile
  9. $STLA Stellantis NV
  10. $BHP BHP Group Ltd

See the whole fund here:

M1 Finance
M1 Finance - Free Automated Investing
Get the most from your money.

Interesting! It looks like others can invest in your "pie" too, which seems very cool to me but I wonder why it doesn't raise a host of compliance and regulatory issues haha.
+ 4 comments
WWE UFC merger
What are your thoughts on the UFC buying the WWE?

I don’t understand why they would do this.

Will this change the sport?

The two will operate under the same company and the new company will IPO in the next 4-6 months

They aren’t merging the sports. They’re just going to recognize a lot of synergies (marketing, merchandising) and a more robust pitch to potential advertisers. This deal makes so much sense to me and I don’t even hold shares in either company nor do I even like the UFC or WWE.
+ 2 comments
Bet on EVs
iShares Self-Driving EV and Tech ETF ($IDRV):

$IDRV is an exchange-traded fund that focuses on investing in companies that are developing self-driving cars and other autonomous technologies. The fund's top holdings include Tesla, Byd, Li, Xpeng, and more.

One of the main advantages of IDRV is that it provides investors with exposure to this rapidly growing sector without having to invest in individual companies. This can help to spread out risk and potentially provide more stable returns over the long-term.

In terms of performance, IDRV has performed well since its inception in June 2019. While there have been some ups and downs, the overall trend has been positive. However, it's important to note that this is a relatively new and niche sector, so there may be more volatility than some other broadly diversified ETFs.

-17% YTD
.47% expense
2.11% dividend yield


a lot of Chinese companies in the ETF. Makes sense given how EV companies have evolved there.
+ 1 comment
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