SPY   230120P00340000

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

I picked up a **$SPY** put at these levels. Very rarely do I make speculative plays like this, so I feel like I need to make a post about why I’m in it.

The markets are up today, and they’re up BIG, off of the CPI reading. The MoM change in the October reading was 0.4% and 7.7% for the 12 months ended, both of these figures were below expectations.

The reality is, these levels are still obviously very high. We are still near inflation levels seen since the early 80’s.

A decline in the annual inflation rate doesn’t mean prices have fallen, it means they aren’t rising as quickly.

For the past 18 months we’ve seen lots of monthly readings in the 0.4%-0.6% range, so why is this being perceived as such great news?

Fed speak today has not shown any intent to pause rate hikes at the coming meetings. Dallas Fed President said, “I don’t see the decision about slowing the pace as being particularly closely related to the incoming data." We are nowhere near a pivot.

For these reasons, I think todays strength in the markets are illogical. So I bought a **$SPY** put! I think we see more downside before year end. My strike is $340 and expiration date is 1/20/2023. I expect I will close the position before year end but decided to go for the a longer expiration in case I needed more room!

What do you think? Will $SPY be higher, lower, or flat compared to today by year end?

Hmmm for some reason I wasn’t able to link my trade! I got one contract at $3.03 

Dividend Dollars

$SPY Put

Bought SPY $340 Puts

This member is verified by the Commonstock team based on their contributions to the Commonstock community. 

Verified Member

This member connected a brokerage account and is sharing trades and portfolio performance with the community. 